PRIME MINISTER'S CLOSE ADVISOR AND HOME MINISTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 002909

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2016
TAGS: PGOV PTER MARR NP
SUBJECT: PRIME MINISTER'S CLOSE ADVISOR AND HOME MINISTER
FAVOR PHASED ARMS MANAGEMENT


Classified By: Ambassador James F Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d)

Summary
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1. (C) Over the recent Nepali holidays, Embassy LES
discussed the arms management process with the Prime
Minister's nephew and close advisor, Dr. Shekhar Koirala, as
well as Home Minister Sitaula, the Government of Nepal's
chief peace negotiator. Both argued for a phased strategy,
highlighting the need to understand the reasons the Maoists
took up arms as a baseline for designing a sustainable
program. Both felt that the strong U.S. position on arms
management had been helpful to the peace process, pressuring
the Maoists to participate responsibly in negotiations.

Shekhar Koirala on Phased Arms Management Process
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2. (C) At a recent holiday reception, Dr. Shekhar Koirala,
the Prime Minister's nephew and close advisor, told
Political-Economic section LES that the Government of Nepal
had limited leverage to force immediate disarmament of the
Maoists. Dr. Koirala argued for a phased strategy,
recognizing that Maoist behavior could not be changed
overnight. The Maoist leadership would, he said, encounter
internal management challenges in imposing disarmament on
their rank-and-file. He felt the most practical solution was
cantonment of combatants to barracks first, followed by
separation from weapons and finally full disarmament.

One-Size-Fits-All Reintegration Won't Work
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3. (SBU) Dr. Koirala also referred to the importance of
understanding the particular incentives at each level of the
Maoist structure--identifying the needs of Maoist leadership
and mid-level commanders, as well as rank-and-file. He
focused on Maoist integration into GON security forces as an
imminent challenge, particularly at the level of Maoist
commanders, who would not be satisfied with entering the army
as new recruits. Koirala also spoke of the need to address
Maoist militias, which have been neglected thus far in arms
management planning.

PLA in Remote Cantonments
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4. (C) Home Minister and Chief Government Peace Negotiator
Sitaula also described a phased strategy. He said the first
step that the Maoists had proposed was to place PLA
combatants in seven cantonment sites high in the hills in
rural areas around Nepal. Their rationale for remote sites
was to build confidence that the PLA would not threaten or
strike Kathmandu. Once the PLA were in barracks, they would
be separated from their arms. Only at this stage would the
Maoists be eligible to join an interim government.

Sitaula Explains Maoist Extortion
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5. (C) Sitaula also mentioned the need to understand the
Maoist incentive structure. He underscored the rationality
of Maoist extortion practices in the face of the need to feed
thousands of Maoist rank-and-file. He asked the political
economic LES to imagine if a group of Nepal Army soldiers
were sent out to a village without resources; he said the
army would take part in the same type of extortion activities
in order to sustain themselves. Sitaula said it should be
noted that, while Maoist extortion had increased, there has
been a decrease in Maoist violence.

Shekhar Koirala and Sitaula Praise U.S. Role on Arms
Management
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6. (C) Both Dr. Koirala and Sitaula, when asked by LES if
the strong U.S. position on arms management had helped or
hindered the peace process, responded positively. They said
that U.S. statements had put pressure on the parties to make

arms management a central focus of the negotiation process.
However, Koirala said the Maoists felt they were treated as
"untouchables" by the U.S., as opposed to legitimate parties
to the negotiation process. Dr. Koirala stated that, if the
Maoists were to comply with settlement provisions and "change
their ways," it would be beneficial to the U.S. to engage
them. Otherwise, the U.S. would lose its ability to continue
to positively influence the peace process.

Comment
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7. (C) As Dr. Koirala and Minister Sitaula observed,
current negotiations suggest that there will be a phased
approach to Maoist arms management. These conversations are
slightly dated and events are moving quickly here. Still,
the two raised important issues about the need to begin
exploring longer-term incentives that will motivate the
Maoists to give up arms and end extortion. While we sharply
differ with Sitaula's assessment of the security situation,
we agree that the specifics of a peace deal and its
implementation are equally vital.
MORIARTY