FAR-WESTERN NEPAL: IN TROUBLE, BUT NOT HOPELESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 002590

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV PTER ECON MARR MCAP PHUM SENV EAID NP
SUBJECT: FAR-WESTERN NEPAL: IN TROUBLE, BUT NOT HOPELESS

REF: KATHMANDU 2491

Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
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1. (SBU) During a trip to the far-western region of Nepal
September 12-15, Ambassador Moriarty met with government and
military officials, business and political leaders, human
rights organizations, and USAID project partners to gauge the
situation on the ground and the impact of U.S. assistance
provided to the region. Visits to Dipayal, Darchula,
Mahendranagar, and Nepalgunj reinforced the notion that Nepal
is a country of 75 different districts, 75 different
insurgencies, and 75 different ceasefires. Visits to
division and battalion Nepal Army (NA) headquarters provided
insight into the activities of the Maoists and the NA's
preparedness. Meetings and site visits with USAID project
partners highlighted the effective cooperation between
multiple NGOs and INGOs to deliver economic development
assistance and other support to underprivileged populations
and those most affected by the Maoist insurgency and recent
floods. The Ambassador returned from the trip a little more
optimistic that Nepal could someday be peaceful, prosperous
and democratic.

Maoists in Dipayal
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2. (C) The Ambassador visited the NA's Far Western Division
Headquarters in Dipayal, in the hilly Doti District.
Division Commander Major General Khadka estimated that Maoist
numbers were down by roughly fifty percent in the past six
months within his region, which includes the Seti and
Mahakali Zones. Maoists are, however recruiting and training
in the region. Khadka speculated that the numbers were down
due to both desertions and a shift of combatants to the
Kathmandu area. In addition, Khadka explained that local
officials were unwilling to confront the Maoists for fear
that the Maoists would break the ceasefire and local
officials would be held responsible.

Maoists in Darchula
--------------


3. (C) Major Dipesh Shah, NA Company Commander in Darchula
District, explained that there was no real Maoist problem
there due to inhospitable terrain and limited escape routes.
Political parties there indicated they were worried about the
Maoists on a broader scale, but not specifically in the local
area.

Maoists in Mahendranagar
--------------


4. (C) Govinda Khanal, Chief District Officer (CDO) in
Mahendranagar, Kanchanpur District, told the Ambassador that
the GON in Kathmandu had issued directions that local
officials were to begin cracking down on illegal Maoist
activities, such as extortion. Khanal and other local
government officials were concerned about following this
order because of the potential Maoist reaction. They
predicted that a violent confrontation with the Maoists was
likely if they attempted to follow the GON's instructions.
Local politicians lamented that the Maoists had previously
had little presence in Mahendranagar but were now terrorizing
the city.

Maoists in Nepalgunj
--------------


5. (SBU) While killings and Maoist violence have decreased,
extortion has risen substantially in Nepalgunj. However,
residents there, who had been experiencing daily bomb blasts
before the ceasefire, felt a little room to breath without a
constant threat of physical harm. In Nepalgunj, Maoists were
collecting "customs" taxes.

Maoists Force Ambassador to Cancel University Visit
-------------- --------------

6. (C) The Maoists were able to directly affect the
Ambassador's visit. On September 14, Sitaram Bista, Chief of
Tribhuvan University's Mahendra campus in Nepalgunj,
requested that the Ambassador not make his scheduled visit to
the campus library. Bista explained that Maoists had closed
the university, locked him in his office, and told him he
could not receive the Ambassador. Journalists later said
that Maoists were present, but that it was other students,
not Maoist students, who had detained Bista. The Maoists
denied responsibility for locking up Bista, but claimed they
were present on the campus to prevent the Ambassador from
visiting the library.

Nepal Army Confident
--------------


7. (C) Maj. Gen. Khadka mentioned that, overall, the NA in
the Far West was not in bad shape. Each of the military
commanders expressed appreciation for military training
provided by the U.S. NA Rangers who received Joint Combined
Education and Training (JCET) from the U.S. Army Special
Forces had formed Mobile Training Teams that in turn trained
soldiers in each of these far-western units. In
Mahendranagar, 25th Brigade Commander Brigadier General Ghale
thought his brigade had enough resources, but was concerned
about ammunition levels. The brigade was particularly proud
of its unit patch, which featured an M-16. In Darchula, Maj.
Shah indicated that, unlike the rest of the NA, the Darchula
detachment, a company, had not expanded in recent years.

Situation of Armed Police Force
--------------


8. (C) Throughout the Far West, the Armed Police Force (APF)
have been limited to district headquarters. The Maoists have
not allowed additional APF posts to open, and have threatened
to break the ceasefire if more posts were opened. Officials
are not willing to accept responsibility for opening posts
and causing an end to the ceasefire. Officials in
Mahendranagar indicated that the Maoists there interpreted
the Ceasefire Code of Conduct to say that the APF was also
required to stay in barracks like the NA, and government
officials hesitated to contradict them.

More Government and Party Presence Needed
--------------


9. (C) Maj. Gen. Khadka also emphasized the need for
politicians to travel to districts to meet with constituents.
He commented that Maoists had been organizing rallies and
other events, but none had been held by the political
parties. Business leaders in Darchula, Mahendranagar and
Nepalgunj all lamented the lack of GON support, and many
commented on the GON's Kathmandu-centric focus.

Improved Development Access
--------------


10. (SBU) GON officials, OHCHR, and international and Nepali
NGOs in Gulariya (in Bardiya District),Mahendranagar and
Nepalgunj reported a marked improvement in development access
since the beginning of the ceasefire. In most circumstances,
development personnel, including district line ministry staff
and national human rights monitors, have been able to operate
more freely and often with less harassment from Maoists since
April. They reported improved access to rural areas and
greater acceptance of development activities by Maoists.
This improvement is in contrast to a very challenging
pre-ceasefire operating environment.


11. (SBU) In Mahendranagar, NGOs Save the Children, CARE, the
Asia Foundation and the Tharu Women's Forum reported that
they had been able to take an active role in raising
awareness about key democracy and human rights issues. Save
the Children, through the Tharu Women's Forum, had
distributed Code of Conduct awareness materials and continued
to inform communities of their rights. (Note: Human rights
activists and individual citizens reported that the pamphlets
about the Ceasefire Code of Conduct were a helpful tool when
encountering Maoists. End note.) Some of these NGOs
reported having also met frequently with political party
leaders to discuss the constitutional assembly process and
the need for greater social inclusion.

Need for Development Assistance
--------------


12. (C) Several CDOs and Maj. Gen. Khadka emphasized the need
for increased development assistance in their districts.
They commented that Maoists had exploited social and economic
vulnerabilities, and therefore increased government attention
to social inclusion, economic growth, and service delivery
was required to counter Maoist influence. One CDO stressed
the importance of GON assistance to flood victims, while
Major General Khadka and other CDOs highlighted the need for
roads, hydropower, and agricultural services.


13. (SBU) Because of Mahendranagar's proximity to New Delhi,
business leaders felt that tourism and trade were both
sectors with potential to grow in an insurgency-free
environment. Both the Chamber of Commerce and the political
parties in Mahendranagar stressed a need for higher education
in the Far West, and made requests for the Ambassador's and
USG's assistance in starting a university in their city.
Nepalgunj appeared even poorer than Mahendranagar, and
business leaders there specifically expressed concern about a
lack of services from the GON.

Flood Victims Receive U.S. Assistance
--------------


14. (SBU) An estimated 58,180 people in 15 districts have
been affected by flooding in recent weeks, with Banke,
Bardiya and Achham Districts hardest hit. Through an
on-going disaster preparedness program, USAID's Office of
Foreign Disaster Assistance has provided non-food relief to
approximately 7,700 flood victims. Relief packages include
plastic tarpaulin, blankets, kitchen utensils, and health and
hygiene kits. At a distribution site in Bardiya, Ambassador
Moriarty met with flood victims and monitored the delivery of
assistance.

Comment
--------------


15. (C) Since the current ceasefire began on April 27, Maoist
activities in the Far West contrast with developments within
the Kathmandu Valley. Nepalis in parts of the Far West
appeared less worried, largely because of a decrease in
killings and violence by the Maoists. Prior to the
ceasefire, they had been living with constant Maoist pressure
and fighting. Nepalgunj, for example, experienced almost
daily bomb blasts. In contrast, residents of the Kathmandu
Valley, most of whom had not previously experienced the
insurgency directly, have seen a rise in Maoist numbers,
pressure and exortion, and have begun to fear the Maoists are
poised to take over. That said, each of the places the
Ambassador visited has been experiencing a slightly different
insurgency. Political parties and business leaders
throughout the region indicated that, for the most part,
Maoists are cooperating on matters of law and order - when it
suits them. However they are not living up to the agreements
made with the Government of Nepal (GON),including the
Ceasefire Code of Conduct. Maoists continued to solicit
"voluntary" donations, and had set up parallel governments,
including people's courts. During the Ambassador's visit,
there were chakkajams (transportation strikes) in
Mahendranagar, and Maoists shut down the main east-west
Mahendra Highway between Nepalgunj and Mahendranagar
protesting an alleged shipment of arms from India (reftel).
Meetings and site visits with USAID project partners
highlighted the effective cooperation between multiple NGOs
and INGOs to deliver effective assistance and support to
those in need.
MORIARTY