CODEL KOLBE STRESSES ARMS MANAGEMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 002363

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/INS, H (PLEASE PASS TO HACFO)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2016
TAGS: PGOV PTER ECON PREF NP
SUBJECT: CODEL KOLBE STRESSES ARMS MANAGEMENT


Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) During their August 25-28 visit, a four-member
Congressional delegation led by Jim Kolbe, Chairman of the
House Appropriations Subcommittee on Foreign Operations,
stressed to the Government of Nepal (GON) that arms
management must occur before Maoists could be allowed into
the government. The CODEL stressed to Speaker of the House
Subhash Nemwang that the GON could not rely on the UN to
disarm the Maoists; the GON and people of Nepal needed to
address the problem. During a meeting with business leaders,
the CODEL learned about the poor state of Nepal's economy and
educated businessmen on the possibilities of Nepal qualifying
for the Millennium Challenge Account. Many interlocutors
told the CODEL that the Maoists' true intentions remained
unknown. Chairman Kolbe expressed hope that the peace
process would succeed and that Nepal will profit from
economic progress and peace.

ARMS MANAGEMENT CRITICAL TO RESTORING MULTI-PARTY DEMOCRACY
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2. (C) Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister KP Oli
stressed, and Chairman Kolbe agreed, that the Maoists could
not be allowed into the government with arms. Oli suggested
that it would take several months to separate the combatants
from their arms. Oli explained that Maoist cadre would soon
be staying in cantonments and their names would be provided
to the GON. The Deputy PM added that the GON must continue
to criticize the Maoists for their abuses and encourage them
to contribute positively to the peace process.


3. (C) During a meeting with leaders of the governing
Seven-Party Alliance (SPA),Communist Party of Nepal - United
Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) General Secretary Madhav Kumar
Nepal explained to CODEL Kolbe that the main pending issue
was when and how Maoist combatants would be separated from
their weapons. President of the Nepali Congress-Democratic
(NC-D) Sher Bahadur Deuba said that if the Maoists did not
disarm they could not participate in constituent assembly
elections. Deuba opined that armed Maoists participating in
constituent assembly elections could lead to a situation akin
to Hamas or Hezbollah. SPA leaders stated that the U.S.
could assist the GON by continuing to emphasize the need for
Maoist disarmament and by encouraging the international
community to do the same.


4. (C) Janak Joshi, a civil servant who heads the Peace
Secretariat, told the CODEL that the Maoists were resisting

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disarmament out of fear. Joshi said that because the Maoists
have weapons, the people have not yet had the courage to
speak out against them. Joshi opined that if the Maoists
disarmed now, without an appropriate level of political power
or protection, the people would turn on them. Birendra
Basnet, Managing Director of Buddha Air, opined that Maoists
would never give up arms because the common people of Nepal
would "skin them alive" in retribution.

ROLE OF THE UN IN THE PEACE PROCESS
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5. (C) Deputy PM Oli noted that the UN would be coming to
Nepal again soon and would visit Maoist cantonments and count
their weapons. Oli explained that the GON had requested that
the UN monitor arms and observe constituent assembly
elections. He noted that the GON would not ask for UN
assistance with mediation and facilitation of peace talks.
Oli opined that, given the opportunity, the Maoists would
seize power. If the opportunity did not arise, the Maoists
would eventually have to show their true intentions by either
joining the political mainstream or returning to violence.
NC-D President and former PM Deuba made a strong appeal for
international monitoring of elections, citing a lack of
capacity in Nepal to do so effectively.


6. (C) During a meeting with CODEL Kolbe, Speaker of the

House Subhash Nemwang said it was still impossible to know
whether the Maoists would be willing to participate in the
government unarmed. Even the Maoist commitment to the peace
process remained unclear. The CODEL emphasized that the GON
could not rely on the UN to disarm the Maoists; rather, the
people of Nepal had to address the problem. Chairman Kolbe
said that in the U.S. view, it was essential that the Maoists
separate from their arms before the government recognized
them as a legitimate political party.

PLANS FOR CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS
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7. (C) Staffan Darnoff of the International Foundation for
Elections Systems (IFES) told the CODEL that, while the
Election Commission had competent and dedicated staff, the
major challenge to a constituent assembly election was the
timeline. He estimated that once constituent assembly
policies were agreed to, it would take the GON at least
twelve months to prepare for elections. Darnoff commented
that the two major factors that made the April 2007 timeline
unrealistic were poor voter registration and a pressing need
for voter education. (Note: 20-25 percent of the Nepali
population is missing from the voter list or not residing in
their place of registration due to violence and displacement.
End Note.) Sujata Koirala, a member of the Nepali Congress
(NC) Central Committee and the Prime Minister's daughter,
opined that an April election was completely unrealistic
given the lack of understanding of the process outside of the
Kathmandu Valley and the current uncertainty about Maoist
disarmament.

MAOIST MOTIVATION AND THE U.S. TERRORIST DESIGNATION
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8. (C) MK Nepal offered three possible reasons why the
Maoists had become involved in the peace process: one, the
Maoists realized they could not win power militarily; two,
the Maoists believed they were well placed to win power in a
democratic process; and three, the Maoists realized that to
be in power they needed support from people who support
democracy. Janak Joshi responded that it remained to be seen
whether the Maoists would be true to their word. He noted
that now was the first time the Maoists had talked about
multi-party democracy, which he viewed as a positive sign.
Joshi believed the Maoists assessed that they had reached a
"strategic equilibrium." He felt the Maoists had realized
they were not going to win by using weapons, so they had
resorted to the political avenue.


9. (C) MK Nepal suggested that the Maoists could be "lured"
into making changes by a U.S. offer to lift the terrorist
designation under E.O. 13224. At an August 28 press
conference, Chairman Kolbe said "we can review the terrorist
tag leveled against them, if the Maoists truly participate in
a peaceful political process." Joshi agreed with
Representative Baird that, if the Maoist leadership agreed to
give up arms and join the political mainstream after so many
years of fighting, there remained a risk of low-level cadre
forming armed splinter groups.

STATUS OF THE PEACE PROCESS
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10. (C) CODEL Kolbe heard varying comments on the current
status of the peace process. Speaker of the House Nemwang
said that the SPA and the Maoists first needed to reach
agreement on several open questions, particularly arms
management, before the process could move forward. Janak
Joshi of the Peace Secretariat explained that the Secretariat
faced numerous administrative challenges. Deputy PM Oli said
the GON was doing its best to fully democratize the country
and live up to the aspirations of the people who supported
the GON during the pro-democracy movement in April 2006.


11. (C) Industrialist Suraj Vaidya told the CODEL that the
Maoists were driving the agenda and noted that the Maoists
had been using delaying tactics to their advantage. Vaidya
explained that in response to his concerns about Maoist
extortion of businesses (and the kidnapping of two of his
company's executives),Home Minister Krishna Prasad Sitaula
told him he would have to keep negotiating with Maoists for
the time being. Finance Secretary Mallik hoped that the
National Monitoring Committee for the Code of Conduct and the
UN mission would provide a solid practical step to check
Maoist violations.

OTI ASSISTANCE TO THE PEACE PROCESS
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12. (C) Karen Kaplan, USAID's Office of Transition
Initiatives (OTI) Senior Field Advisor, explained to the
CODEL that on their initial field trips, seven GON Cease-fire
Code of Conduct monitoring teams had received more than 800
complaints of violations in some 14 districts, most of them
directed at the Maoists. OTI had distributed 30,000 copies
of a book in Nepali compiling the code of conduct and key
peace process documents and explaining how to file complaints
with the committee. Kaplan noted that OTI planned to print
another 40,000 copies of the book to meet high demand. In
addition to receiving complaints, Kaplan shared that the
monitoring committee had intervened to free someone kidnapped
by the Maoists and obtained freedom of movement for a family
the Maoists were not allowing to return to their home. OTI
may try to assist Village Development Committee (VDC)
secretaries return to their villages by renovating VDC

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offices and supplying office supplies. (Note: Over 68
percent of VDC secretaries have moved to district
headquarters over the past several years due to Maoist
threats and violence. End Note.) The Ambassador noted that
assisting the VDCs would effectively shame the Maoists, as
the VDCs were the key local providers of government services
to rural Nepalis.

HOW THE U.S. CAN ASSIST NEPAL
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13. (SBU) Several Seven-Party Alliance leaders pointed out
that U.S. support would be needed to replace destroyed
infrastructure and reintegrate internally displaced persons
and ex-combatants into normal life after ten years of
conflict. Interlocutors suggested that the U.S. mobilize
other donors to assist with these crucial issues. They also
raised resuming the Peace Corps in Nepal to provide support
for health, infrastructure and education programs.

ECONOMY DOWN BUT HAS POTENTIAL
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14. (C) Finance Secretary Mallik noted the decline in the
tourist and manufacturing industries. Mallik requested
continued U.S. moral and financial support for the political
process and implementation of the peace process. Both NC-D
President Deuba and Chairman Kolbe pointed out that Nepal had
tremendous opportunities and resources. Chairman Kolbe hoped
that the peace process would succeed and enable Nepal to
profit from economic progress and peace. Businessmen
expressed interest in the Chairman's explanation of the
prospects for Nepal to qualify for the Millennium Challenge
Account.

NO EQUAL TREATMENT FOR ARMIES; ARMY BILL IN THE WORKS
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15. (C) Oli explained that Maoist leaders had demanded equal
treatment for the Nepal Army (NA) and the Maoist People's
Liberation Army (PLA). Oli stressed that this was not
possible because the NA was an institution of the state,
while the PLA were insurgents. He added that the NA would
never give up their arms. House Speaker Nemwang told the
CODEL that he expected the Parliament to pass the Nepal Army
Bill, which would place the Army under the control of the
Parliament and the Prime Minister, in seven or eight days.
According to Nemwang, passage of the bill would be a direct
signal to the Maoists that the Army was no longer loyal to
the King.

COMMENT


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16. (C) CODEL Kolbe's August 25-28 visit to Nepal could not
have come at a better time. Chairman Kolbe and his three
fellow Members of Congress were in a strong position to
stress the crucial importance of the GON solving the arms
management issue before allowing the Maoists into the
government. As elected representatives of the American
people, they also spoke with conviction when they insisted
that the future of Nepal lay in the hands of the Nepali
people.
MORIARTY