ARMS MANAGEMENT STILL KEY ISSUE BUT TEMPORIZING

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 002154

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2016
TAGS: PGOV PTER NP
SUBJECT: ARMS MANAGEMENT STILL KEY ISSUE BUT TEMPORIZING
AGREEMENT POSSIBLE


Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
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1. (C) Since the August 3 departure of the UN assessment
mission without a deal on arms management, the Government of
Nepal (GON) and Maoist negotiating teams have struggled to
reach an agreement. Neither party wants to be blamed for
missing this opportunity for peace. According to at least
one source in the Prime Minister's Office, the Prime Minister
may offer the Maoists a deal as early as tomorrow which would
defer the question of separating the Maoists from their arms
until later -- but before the creation of the an interim
government with Maoist participation. End Summary.

Talks Continue
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2. (C) Despite the departure on August 3 of the UN assessment
mission Staffan de Mistura led, the GON's negotiating team
and the Maoists have continued to try to reach agreement on
the central question of management of the Maoist arms.
According to our sources, Maoist leader Prachanda continues
to push for language that puts the Maoist combatants under UN
monitoring in designated cantonments with their weapons. The
GON's negotiating team led by Home Minister Sitaula is
inclined to settle with the Maoists on vague language that
does not make the separation of Maoists from their arms
explicit. Prime Minister Koirala has held firm despite
public criticism by Maoists and their sympathizers, notably
in a speech by Maoist no. 2 Baburam Battarai on August 7 at a
business federation conference, that the PM was being
obstructionist.

Deal Still A Possibility
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3. (C) PM Koirala's foreign policy advisor Chalise told
pol/econ section chief August 8 that a deal could come as
soon as August 9. (Note: At the time of his departure, de
Mistura told the Nepalis that they had an additional six days
to reach agreement if there was to be UN involvement.
Neither side wants to be blamed for missing this opportunity
for peace and both sides have publicly acknowledged their
desire for a UN role. End note.) Koirala's tactic,
according to Chalise, is to wait until the last possible
moment, namely August 9, to agree in order to ensure the best
possible terms for the government.


4. (C) According to the latest language of the crucial
section of a draft letter to UN Secretary General Annan
requesting UN involvement which Chalise showed us, the Maoist
combatants with their weapons would be monitored by the UN
within designated cantonments. "Later" the parties (the GON
and the Maoists) and the UN would decide on the modalities
for "handling the Maoists arms and munitions" but at any rate
before the creation of an interim government. Chalise said
the PM would like to make the separation of the Maoists from
their arms explicit, but he too does not want to miss an
opportunity for peace. The language was currently under
discussion, but he may agree as early as noon on August 9.

Comment
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5. (C) Under current conditions it is difficult to assess
whether there will be a deal. The proposed deal fudges the
core issue -- the ultimate deprivation of Maoist weapons --
to an extent that may be acceptable to the two sides for now.
Ultimately, however, if this deal goes through, the GON will
still have to decide whether it sticks to its bottom line of
not letting the Maoists into the government while they retain
their weapons. Needless to say, we will continue to buck up
the government on the issue of Maoist arms.
MORIARTY