NEPAL'S KING REMAINS ISOLATED

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 002110

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2016
TAGS: PGOV PTER NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL'S KING REMAINS ISOLATED


Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
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1. (C) King Gyanendra's confidant Prabhakar Rana told the
Ambassador on August 3 that popular animosity against the
King had not died down since the April "People's Movement."
Rana had suggested in vain that the King give his testimony
to the high-level Rayamajhi Commission. Rana denied that the
Army would protect the King over their own interests, and
also denied that the King had been reaching out to the
Maoists, although he was unable to say for sure. Rana also
worried about the survival of the monarchy as an institution.
On the political front, Rana expressed concern about the
health of Prime Minister GP Koirala and the lack of a
successor to the PM. Rana predicted that the Nepali Congress
(NC) and the Nepali Congress-Democratic (NC-D) might merge in
the future, but that this merger could cause problems in
choosing leadership of the party. End Summary.

King Should Take Proactive Steps To Rebuild His Reputation
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2. (C) During an August 3 meeting with the Ambassador, King
Gyanendra's confidant Prabhakar Rana expressed concern that
animosity toward the King had not died down since the
"People's Movement" in April 2006. Rana suggested that the
King should be more proactive in finding opportunities to
increase his popularity. Rana had suggested to the King that
Gyanendra testify before the high-level Rayamajhi commission,
giving the King a chance to explain his actions on his own
terms. (Note: The Rayamajhi Commission was formed to
investigate alleged abuses by the Royal Government during the
People's Movement. End Note.) According to Rana, the King
had no interest in his suggestion. Rana hoped the King would
maintain a low profile over the next few months. Rana
claimed the King had ruined his own reputation with the Army
as well, who viewed him as a megalomaniac. Rana suggested
that if the Nepal Army made any type of move in the future,
it would be to protect its own interests, and not to protect
the King.

Future Of The Monarchy Unsure...
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3. (C/NF) The Ambassador asked Rana about the rumors that the
King had been reaching out to the Maoists. While Rana's
initial response was that the rumors were false, Rana
immediately followed this by saying he would not be surprised
if the King had reached out, since the Maoists had now come
above ground. Rana was concerned about the Maoists and their
intentions. Rana worried that if a referendum were held on
the fate of the monarchy, the monarchy would not survive.
Rana said the Indians told him that the King should, along
with the Crown Prince, leave Nepal in order to preserve the
monarchy, but Rana said he could not take such a message to
the King.

Nepal's Political Future Unsure: Who Replaces The PM?
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4. (C) Rana suggested that the biggest political concern
currently was the Prime Minister's health. He said there
were four relatives of Prime Minister GP Koirala who would
like to become the next Nepali Congress (NC) party President
should the PM die (Sushil Koirala, cousin; Sujata Koirala,
daughter; Shekhar Koirala, nephew; Shashank Koirala, nephew),
but that most members of the party did not want any of them
to become President. Rana believed the leading contender
within the party to become Party President, and possibly the
next PM, was Ram Chandra Poudel, NC Central Committee Member
and General Secretary.

What About The Parties?
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5. (C) Rana said a group of people in the NC Central
Committee were beginning to quietly think about the future,
and the possible merging of the party with the Nepali
Congress-Democratic (NC-D). Rana emphasized that if the two
parties combined, then most of the conservative parties woudl
join them, forcing the Communist Party of Nepal-United
Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) to remain a third force between
the democratic forces in Nepal and the Maoists. Rana also
expressed concern that some members of the CPN-UML may move
over and join the Maoists if this occured. Rana suggested
that KP Oli, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, and
member of the CPN-UML, could branch off and form a new party
that espoused socialist views while eschewing traditional
communist ideology.

Comment
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6. (C) Rana has been helpful to us in the past and continues
to provide us with useful insights into the palace. We have
no reason to doubt the veracity of his information. We do
not think that the King is the real issue at this time but
will keep a close eye on the palace as events unfold. Our
concern, and Rana's, is that there is no clear sucessor to GP
Koirala as PM.
MORIARTY