INDIAN AMBASSADOR ON BHUTANESE REFUGEES

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 001725

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2016
TAGS: PREF PREL PTER NP
SUBJECT: INDIAN AMBASSADOR ON BHUTANESE REFUGEES


Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty, Reasons, 1.4 (b/d).

GOI Floats Bhutanese Proposal on Restarting JVT
-------------- --


1. (C) During a June 30 meeting, Indian Ambassador Shiv
Mukherjee told the Ambassador that Ministry of External
Affairs (MEA) Joint Secretary Pankaj Saran, following his
visit to Thimpu, had sent up a suggestion that the Government
of Nepal (GON) allow a small joint verification team (JVT)
perhaps comprising two Nepalis and two Bhutanese to go to the
camps. The MEA reasoned that this would remove the RGOB's
current justification for not moving on repatriation of the
Bhutanese refugees. Mukherjee said he had passed the
proposal to Foreign Minister KP Oli, but was waiting for a
response. The Ambassador expressed concern that Saran's
proposal was a non-starter; the RGOB presumably hoped the GON
would reject the idea out of hand, since it would amount to
reopening an issue the GON considered settled; moreover, if a
team containing RGOB officials visited the camps, it would
likely touch off riots in the camps. The Ambassador pointed
out that the proposal was further proof that the Bhutanese
did not appear serious about taking any of the refugees back.

Looking At Other Options ...
--------------


2. (C) The Ambassador informed Mukherjee that, during his
recent consultations in Washington, he had found interest in
the USG accepting a high number of Bhutanese refugees,
perhaps as many as 75,000. The Ambassador noted that Canada
had committed to taking 5,000 and Australia was also
interested. The Ambassador had observed that third-country
resettlement could thus largely resolve the issue. He said
the one hang-up was the Nepalese fear of possible future RGOB
expulsion of the remaining ethnic Nepalis in Bhutan. To
assuage that fear, the Government of Nepal (GON) wanted to
get some repatriation of refugees to Bhutan, since it
believed that would amount to a tacit admission of guilt for
the 1990-1991 expulsions. The Ambassador worried, however,
that Bhutan had no intention of repatriating any refugees.

... A GOI Guarantee Against Further Expulsions
-------------- -


3. (C) Mukherjee said that part of the problem was that the
RGOB had "incredible clout" in New Delhi and knew exactly how
to work the Indian political system. The Ambassador replied
that, given that reality and given that the RGOB apparently
did not want to take back any refugees, we needed to look at
other solutions to allay GON concerns over possible future
expulsions. One option would be to hold an international
conference, where the international community moved toward
third country resettlement, while condemning the 1990-91
expulsions; however that would be difficult as the RGOB had
many supporters in the international community. Another
possible solution would be for the Government of India (GOI)
to give the GON a guarantee that expulsions would not happen
again. The GOI had both the clout and the shared border with
Bhutan to make such a guarantee credible. The Ambassador
informed Mukherjee that the previous government had refused
to consider that option, but the current GON appeared willing
to consider it. The Ambassador said he had tentatively
raised it with FM Oli, who seemed interested. The Ambassador
noted that he believed the refugee camp leaders' insistence
on repatriation was not an insurmountable obstacle, as the
majority of refugees seemed open to third-country
resettlement. The Ambassador added that UNHCR's census would
be an important first step.

In India's Interest To Act
--------------


4. (C) The Ambassador pointed that if there were no action,
the Bhutanese refugee problem could blow up. If the Maoists
entered and then dominated government, they could politicize
and train the refugees in the camps. This would potentially
negatively affect Nepal, India and Bhutan. Keeping the
refugees in the camps posed a long-term threat, he remarked,
and thus it was in India's interest to act to help to resolve
the issue. Mukherjee said he would float in New Delhi the
proposal that India provide a guarantee against further
expulsions. He suggested very strongly that the U.S. Embassy
in New Delhi also raise the proposal with Joint Secretary
Pankaj Saran or Foreign Secretary Syam Saran to get it in the
system. He noted that the RGOB King or Crown Prince planned
to visit New Delhi in July so it would be useful to start the
GOI thinking about the possibility of giving a guarantee to
prevent further expulsions.

Comment
--------------


5. (C) We heartily endorse the Indian Ambassador's
recommendation that Embassy New Delhi also raise with the GOI
the possibility of India providing a guarantee to the GON
against further expulsions. We believe there is an
opportunity to find a comprehensive, durable solution if we
can get over the hurdle of ensuring the RGOB does not expel
remaining ethnic Nepalis.

MORIARTY