NORTHERN UGANDA: GOVERNMENT MAXIMIZING PEACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 001616

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF, AF/E, AF/SPG, DRL, INR, PRM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2016
TAGS: PHUM PREF PREL PGOV WCI UG SU
SUBJECT: NORTHERN UGANDA: GOVERNMENT MAXIMIZING PEACE
OPTIONS

REF: KAMPALA 1601

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Classified By: Political/Economic Chief Kathleen FitzGibbon for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The Government of Uganda's efforts to
expand its options regarding the Lord's Resistance Army and
the Juba Peace Talks intensified over the past week. These
include consulting with Sudanese Vice President Salva Kiir,
opening direct discussions with LRA number two Vincent Otti
and pursuing multilateral discussions on potential military
operations should the talks fail. The Government also is
considering the consequences of no firm resolution or clear
failure at Juba and the possibility that LRA leader Joseph
Kony could evade a military strike. So far, the GOU is
demonstrating a great deal of flexibility and patience
despite the seeming lack of progress in the negotiations,
including considering agreeing to the assembly of LRA
combatants in southern Sudan as a pre-condition for a
cease-fire. End Summary.

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SITUATION UPDATE
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2. (C) Speculation continues over the location and/or plans
of Joseph Kony to relocate from Congo to Central African
Republic (CAR). Biselele Wa Mutshipayi, Congolese Charge
d'Affaires to Kampala, pointed out on a map Kony's likely
destination along the CAR-Sudan-Congo border near Obo.
According to Congolese government's information, Kony and
some of his fighters have been to this location, which is 123
miles from his hideout at Garamba. He speculated that Kony
has a genuine fear that the Ugandan military and UN forces
will attack him if the talks fail. He said that Kony and
Otti--who may not be in the same place--are being
well-supplied with food and communications equipment.
Another interlocutor told us that Otti now has four new
Thuraya satellite telephones. Congo is concerned that Kony
is receiving outside support, possibly from parts of the
Sudanese Government, according to the Charge. Mutshipayi
also expressed concern that a weekly Ugandan newspaper named
specific locations of LRA soldiers and commanders in Congo,
which he says, could only have come from the Ugandan
military, which means that elements of the Ugandan army was
in Congo to gather it.


3. (C) At Juba, the LRA presented additional demands, which
the GOU rejected. The paper calls for the distribution of
thirty percent of government appointees at various levels be
from the north and east and a similar distribution of
economic resources. LRA also wants a Rehabilitation and
Reconstruction Commission for Northern and Eastern Uganda to
be controlled by the north and east. The Sudanese mediation
is reconciling the various position papers, which have all
now been presented. Meanwhile, Internal Affairs Minister
Ruhakana Rugunda, the head of the Ugandan delegation is
talking directly to Vincent Otti by telephone on a daily
basis. Northern parliamentarians report that Kony and Otti
have called them for their views on the GOU's sincerity and
the capacity of northerners to accept ex-LRA back.

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UGANDAN PLAN A: INITIATIVES TO MAKE TALKS SUCCEED
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4. (C) The Ugandan Government continues its two-track
approach to negotiating: one venue is Juba, the other "venue"
is direct conversations with Vincent Otti at Garamba.
Rugunda is trying to persuade Otti to make a gesture, such as
releasing the women and children, as a demonstration of good
faith, in part to appease the sections of the international
community which want the ICC indictments honored. In
response to Kony's reported concerns about the feelings of
Ugandans outside of Acholiland, President Museveni has tasked
parliamentarians and local stakeholders to devise a hybrid
reconciliation mechanism that could work across ethnic
groups. Another Government plan includes creating
"reintegration" camps for returning LRA that would give them
time to consider their future options in terms of relocation,
provide vocational training and other forms education, and
protection from local populations, if needed. The Government
continues its efforts to encourage LRA defections, which
included seven mid-level officers/commanders this week,
according to a military source. Ugandan newspapers speculate
that the Government is looking for another country to take

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Kony because he may fear coming back to Uganda. Museveni had
previously approached Libya, South Sudan, and Tanzania,
according to Betty Bigombe. Libya allegedly agreed.
Museveni stopped in Libya on his way home from Germany last
week but we have no information on the details of the visit.

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UGANDAN PLAN B: TALKS FAIL, PREPARATIONS FOR MILITARY OPTION
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5. (C) Ugandan military spokesmen have made public comments
signaling the potential for a military strike if the talks
fail. The Congolese charge and members of the Ugandan Peace
Support team confirm that there have been discussions between
Uganda, Congo, and the Government of South Sudan about a
multilateral approach to exercising a military option. The
Congolese insist that this takes the form of a multilateral
approach that include MONUC. Another condition for Congo is
that this option is held off until after the second round of
Congolese elections in mid-October. The LRA response, likely
triggered by press reports of "Plan B", has been to recall
its members from northern Uganda and southern Sudan to Congo
and disperse them into small units to lessen the blow of a
potential Ugandan strike.

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SITUATION C: NO CLEAR RESOLUTION, KONY GETS OUT-OF-REACH
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6. (C) The GOU clearly wants to avoid a situation in which
Kony is able to escape from the military and international
pressure that have brought about negotiations. In this
scenario, the LRA does not agree to surrender, relocates
outside Congo and finds new or old patrons, and joins forces
with other disaffected Ugandans in scattered rebel groups.
This would make it impossible for the GOU neutralize the Kony
threat.

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COMMENT
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7. (C) The Sudanese mediators have their hands full, given
the GOU's goal is to hammer out the details of an LRA
surrender and the LRA's objective is to avoid international
prosecution. Nonetheless, the GOU continues to seek ways to
accommodate some of the LRA's requests to keep it engaged in
the peace process and to keep the negotiations moving. For
example, we are hearing that the Government may be willing to
agree to some conditions for a cease-fire, such as the
assembly of LRA fighters in designated areas of southern
Sudan as a pre-condition. We have been called to a briefing
by the Minister of Defense later today on the details.














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