KARZAI RELAYS PRESSURE TO RELEASE BAGHLAN WARLORD

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 005679

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/FO DAS GASTRIGHT,S/CT,SCA/A,
NSC FOR AHARRIMAN,
CENTCOM FOR POLAD, CG CFC-A, CG CJTF-76,
TREASURY FOR APARAMESWARAN, ABAUKOL,
STATE PASS USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG,

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL PTER AF
SUBJECT: KARZAI RELAYS PRESSURE TO RELEASE BAGHLAN WARLORD
AMIR GUL

REF: A. KABUL 03317

B. HOTR WASHINGTON DC 300715Z JUL06

C. IAP200611129500103

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald Neumann for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (SUMMARY): (S) President Karzai on 30 November initially
urged the Ambassador, COMISAF, and UNAMA Special
Representative (SRSG) to endorse the release of former
Taliban commander Amir Gul, a prominent Baghlan warlord now
in National Directorate of Security (NDS) custody. Karzai
wants Gul released to ameliorate adverse Pashtun reaction to
the November 8 killing by ISAF of another Pashtun, Wali
Mohammed Ebrahim Khel, in Balkh's Charbolak District, a death
now under ISAF investigation. Eventually, President Karzai
accepted the idea of having Attorney General (AG) Sabit
review whether evidence against Gul is sufficient for trial.
To allow time for AG review, Karzai agreed to hold off for
one week on a decision. A Balkh Pashtun delegation later
emphasized to the Ambassador, COMISAF, and the UNAMA SPSG
that they did not see an anti-Pashtun link between Amir Gul's
detention and Wali Mohamed's death and stated Gul should be
prosecuted if evidence is sufficient. They also outlined
their disagreement with local government actions inciting
Pashtuns, prompting COMISAF to pledge to instruct the German
ISAF commander to consult with their community. Karzai is
under pressure from northern Pashtuns on purely political
issues as well that may be influencing his judgment.


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Karzai Emphasizes Pashtun Pressure
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2. (S) Amir Gul, a Pashtun former Taliban commander and
prominent Baghlan warlord, has been in National Directorate
of Security (NDS) detention since his capture on/about July
12, 2006 by Afghan National Army (ANA) and coalition forces.
In Gul's compound forces discovered an extensive cache of
weapons, explosive devices, uniforms, and a containerized
vehicle assessed as ready for transformation into a VBIED
within 10 minutes (reftel B). The seized materials were not
"typical mujaheddin leftovers" from the Soviet period (reftel
A) and implicated Gul in attacks against ISAF forces,
including a June suicide car bomb attack in Kunduz.


3. (S) On 30 November, President Karzai urged the
Ambassador, COMISAF, and UNAMA Special Representative of the
Secretary General (SRSG) Koenigs to release Gul to ameliorate

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adverse Pashtun reaction to the killing by ISAF on 8 November
of another Pashtun, Wali Mohammed Ebrahim Khel, in Balkh's
Charbolak Province, a death COMISAF confirmed is now under
ISAF investigation (reftel C). Karzai stated Pakistan was
characterizing Gul's detention as anti-Pashtun, northern
Pashtuns were protesting, and that Gul's detention was due to
pressure from foreign partners rather than evidence of
wrongdoing. Although coalition and provincial officials
previously dissuaded Karzai, who apparently knows Gul well,
from requesting Gul's release (reftel A),Karzai now stated
that reaction to Wali Mohammed's death made Gul's release
imperative.


4. (S) The Ambassador, COMISAF, and UNAMA SRSG suggested
Attorney General (AG) Sabit evaluate whether evidence is
sufficient to bring Gul to trial. The Ambassador pointed out
that Karzai's handling of Gul's case would highlight the
difference between a system of influence and one of law and
that the Ministry of Interior Probation Board's dismissal of
11 ex-Northern Alliance commanders would undercut
insinuations that the GOA is targeting Pashtuns.
Characterizing Gul's detention as primarily a legal and
political issue, COMISAF reiterated to Karzai the extensive
allegations against Gul (reftel A),noting Gul's Disarmament
of Illegally Armed Groups (DIAG) contributions had been of
old, unserviceable weapons and that ISAF had targeted him
because he was involved in attacks against coalition forces.
COMISAF reassured Karzai that ISAF is conducting a serious
inquiry into the death of Wali Mohammed and that he would

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express his regrets to the Balkh delegation. UNAMA's SRSG
emphasized Gul's human rights violations and threats against
UN officers in Baghlan.

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NDS, MOD, MOI Concerns
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5. (S) Ministries reportedly part of a commission to
investigate Wali Mohammed's death (reftel C) were also
present and expressed hesitation about prosecuting Amir Gul
in light of other higher priority targets. NDS Head Amrullah
Saleh, a Tajik, indicated that neither evidence provided by
the international community nor applicable law on internal
and external security would be enough to convict Gul. He
praised Gul's contributions to DIAG and dismissed Gul's
alleged involvement in a murder of a Canadian citizen. While
Ministry of Defense (MOD) Deputy Nuristani endorsed giving
the AG a chance to evaluate the evidence against Gul, he
cautioned it was not very strong, noting that since Gul had
been DIAG's top Northern contributor, he would have had many
weapons ready for DIAG. Ministry of Interior (MOI) Deputy
Khalid Farahi characterized Gul as a "bad man," but noted
there were worse. Palace Chief of Staff Jawed Luddin
expressed concern that taking Gul's case to court would lead
the GOA down a 'dangerous road'--a road the Ambassador
suggested would instead take the GOA in the direction of a
system of law rather than one of influence.


6. (S) NDS head Saleh highlighted two other possible
prosecutorial targets: Nazri Mohammad, whose militia is
suspected of attacking the German PRT while holding the PRT's
security contract, and non-Pashtun alleged murderers of two
German journalists. While COMISAF indicated ISAF support for
prosecuting targets identified by the MOI and the German
UNAMA SRSG noted likely German government support for such
decisions, MOI Deputy Khalid Farahi reported that an MOI
operation to capture the alleged murders had been thwarted by
an independent German ISAF operation.


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Balkh Pashtun Elders Emphasize Support for ISAF
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7. (S) In a separate meeting without President Karzai or NDS,
MOD, and MOI officials present, COMISAF expressed regret over
the death of Wali Mohammed to his father, Balkh delegation
leader Akhtar Muhammad Khan, a former jihadi commander.
Questioned by the Ambassador on whether they felt Wali
Mohammed's death should prompt the release of Amir Gul,
Akhtar Muhammad, MP Ms. Naseri, and several elders responded
that Amir Gul's situation had nothing to do with Wali
Mohammed's case. They also emphasized that the foreign
military presence protected Pashtuns, that attacks on
foreigners were un-Islamic, and that district problems were
due to factional, political agenda issues, not ethnic
rivalry. (Note: Coalition intelligence on December 4 cites
Akhtar Muhammad as telling Taliban and Hezb-e-Islami
Gulbuddin commanders that they should seek revenge against
ISAF and the ANA if the GOA did not identify those
responsible for killing his son. End note) They recommended
ISAF move an army post so their community will not be blamed
for attacks they are not mounting on the post, and
recommended the local German ISAF forces consult with the
police chief, the only local official from their ethnic
group. They also offered documentation of local government
representatives' efforts to incite Pashtuns by telling them
ISAF was against them, including a speech by Governor Atta,
who had been quoted on television as saying of Wali Mohammed,
"the Americans shot him dead" (reftel C). COMISAF pledged to
tell the German ISAF commander to engage with their
community.

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Comment
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Karzai is under a variety of pressures in the north.
According to Meshrano Jirga Speaker Hamid Gailani there are
Pashtun minorities in the north who fled as refugees during
the fighting and now want to reclaim land from dominate
Tajiks. The Tajiks are refusing. In some cases the Pashtuns
sided with the Taliban in the past. They are now complaining
to Karzai, including a group of Parliamentary deputies, but
Karzai lacks the strength in the north to adjudicate the
issues. ISAF does not have a mandate to get into land and
criminal issues and the German ISAF forces in the north are
disinclined to become engaged, much to UNAMA SRSG's dismay
(he is a German national). In these circumstances pressing
ISAF for Gul's release may be one of the few cards Karzai can
play to relieve the pressure when the foreigners can't or
won't help him with the deeper issues. End Comment

NEUMANN