RUMORS OF AFGHAN CABINET SHUFFLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000461

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA/FO, SA/A, EB/OTP, EB/CBA, EB/BTA FOR
MBGOODMAN, EB/CIP/BA FOR BOB WATTS AND ROBERT BOEHME
TREASURY FOR PARAMESWARAN
NSC FOR AHARRIMAN, KAMEND
COMMERCE FOR AADLER
CENTCOM FOR CG CFC-A
USTR FOR GHICKS
TRANSPORTATION FOR DMODESITT
FAA FOR JHANCOCK AND TMARZIN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2016
TAGS: ECON ETRD EAID PREL ECPS AF
SUBJECT: RUMORS OF AFGHAN CABINET SHUFFLE

REF: KABUL 0359

Classified By: Deputy Econ Couns Stevens for Reasons 1.4 b and d.

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) The Afghan government is swirling with rumors of an
imminent cabinet shuffle and possible downsizing. Several
ministries, including Commerce, Communications, Mines and
Industry, and Transportation, anticipate management shakeups
as it is widely expected President Karzai will reorganize his
government in response to political pressures and a desire
to put a fresh face on his government. Approval of cabinet
ministers will set the tone for relations between the new
Parliament and the Karzai government. End Summary.


2. (C) Commerce Minister Arsala is maneuvering for a more
important job in the Karzai government. According to
Ministry contacts, Arsala, who previously served as Finance
Minister and Foreign Minister in the 1990s for the exiled
Afghan opposition and Vice President in the transitional
government, is seeking either a more important government
ministry or the GOA,s ambassadorship in the U.S. Econoff
spoke to several Ministry contacts who all expressed
frustration with Arsala,s lack of interest in his own
ministry and the resulting drift in setting a comprehensive
Ministry agenda. (Note: Arsala spends most of his time in
his presidential office at the Sadarat that he enjoys as a
senior advisor to Karzai. End Note.)


3. (C) Communications Minister Sangeen is a well-respected
technocrat who has overseen the private sector-driven
expansion of the nascent Afghan telecommunications industry.
His Ministry is one of the better managed in the GOA and has
worked closely with private business to expand the country,s
telecommunications industry. However, Sangeen lacks an
independent power base and Embassy contacts report that Vice
President Massoud is seeking his ouster. (Septel will
follow.) (Comment: Given his record of accomplishment,
openness to free market competition and reputation for
honesty, the Embassy is concerned that Sangeen,s departure
could harm one of the few on-going success stories in
Afghanistan,s reconstruction. End Comment.)


4. (C) Mines and Industry Minister Sediq, openly
anticipating his own removal from office, recently approached
USAID for a consulting job. Sediq does not have an extensive
background in mining or energy extraction and has generally
by-passed the ministry,s permanent staff in his decision
making. Econoff recently met with Deputy Minister for Mining
Adel. Despite his position and almost thirty years
experience at MMI, it was evident that Adel was totally
cutoff from the Ministry,s day-to-day operations and policy
decisions. Adel openly criticized Sediq,s management of MMI
and suggested that the Minister would be looking for a new
job in the coming weeks.


5. (C) Transportation Minister Qasimi may not survive the
expected cabinet shuffle. (See reftel.) Embassy officers
have recently noted erratic decisions and pronouncements by
the Minister that may reflect partly on his eroding position.
His last minute decision to make the Hajj pilgrimage this
year may indicate that he does not expect to be Minister next
year during Hajj. (Note: It is difficult to obtain a Hajj
pilgrimage slot and as a minister, Qasimi is assured of a
place and can make the pilgrimage at government expense. End
Note.)

6. (SBU) Rural Rehabilitation and Development (RRD) Minister
Atmar has been discussed for several months as a candidate to
take over the Interior Ministry. However, more recent
reports indicate he may remain in his current job, although
his retention may depend in part on his success in attracting
additional commitments from donors during the London
Conference. Embassy contacts say that his Ministry may be
combined with the Ministry of Agriculture. RRD, one of the
GOA,s better performing agencies, will reportedly dominate
this new &super Ministry.8 No future role has been
discussed for Agriculture Minister Ramin and he is expected
to either become the new Deputy Minister for Agriculture or
step down after the new cabinet is named.


7. (C) Foreign Minister Abdullah,s future is also open to
discussion. There are reports that Karzai may reassign him
to other diplomatic duties. Part of this speculation has
been fueled by his peripatetic travel schedule which has
rarely seen him in Kabul of late. Defense Minister Wardak
may also change portfolios in a cabinet shuffle. During a
lunch with Mrs. Cheney, Mrs. Wardak suggested that her
husband had lost weight over concern that he was losing
Karzai,s support in negotiations over the ultimate size of
the ANA.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) Despite months of speculation, Karzai has deferred a
cabinet reorganization until after the London Conference to
avoid any perception of disunity or confusion in his
government. Several members of Parliament have reported
separately that the overall size of the cabinet will shrink
from 26 ministries to as few as 19. It remains to be seen
how the new Parliament will debate and ratify future cabinet
selections. However, cabinet ratifications will provide
Parliament with one of its first opportunities to formally
criticize, support or hold accountable the Karzai government
for its record in office. As always with Karzai,s
personnel decisions, nothing is finally done until it is
done. No matter how authoritative the gossip seems, we will
have to wait for the announcement to know the shape of the
new cabinet.
NORLAND