PRT Panjshir: The Security Dimension

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 KABUL 000452

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

NSC FOR AHARRIMAN, KAMEND
DEPT FOR SA/FO, AMBASSADOR QUINN, SA/PAB, S/CT, SA/A
CENTCOM FOR POLAD
REL NATO/AUST/NZ/ISAF

E.O. 12958 N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR AF
SUBJECT: PRT Panjshir: The Security Dimension

Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) In Panjshir Province, the security
environment is permissive. The PRT is able to move
about actively in the valley and interact closely with
its inhabitants. The main factors shaping the
positive environment are: strategic alignment with
the U.S., a strong governor who works with the PRT, a
network of former Mujahideen now serving as security
forces, combat fatigue after decades of war and
turmoil, no poppy cultivation, and a close-knit
society that makes outsiders stand out. That said,
security challenges still exist, including a renegade
religious leader, continuing controversy over weapons
removal, pockets of cultural skepticism, and ANA and
ANP forces struggling to establish themselves. End
Summary.


2. (U) This is the first in a three-part series on
the Panjshir Province, where we inaugurated our PRT
last November. The second message will deal with
political trends; the third, with economic
developments.


3. (U) In terms of safety and security, the Panjshir
is permissive, allowing the PRT to operate throughout
the main valley. There are several auspicious
circumstances, outlined below:

Strategic Alignment
--------------


4. (U) The tomb of Massoud, the slain Mujahideen
leader, dominates the valleys landscape and
symbolizes its strategic outlook. Panjshiri officials
emphasize the Afghan-American partnership forged in
the struggle against the Soviet invasion and Taliban
encroachment. In a speech before several hundred
Panjshiris December 26, the Governor recalled U.S.
support for the Mujahideen, pointedly mentioning
Stingers. We hear similar themes from Panjshiris from
all walks: Americans have come to help and not, like
the Soviets, to occupy; Americans and Afghans are
united in the war on terrorism. (Comment: The result
is a climate of political acceptance, although some
cultural skepticism remains, see below. End Comment.)

Cooperative Governor
--------------


5. (U) Haji Bahlul, in office half a year, has
embraced the PRT and made its security one of his
central concerns. Both publicly and privately, he
calls on Panjshiris to do their part in ensuring PRT
security. Indeed, this theme figures prominently in
his speeches. He believes the PRT success depends on
its freedom of movement and closeness of interaction,
which, in turn, depend on its security. We find him
highly accessible, always available to discuss
security issues. He says his military background, as
one of Massouds commanders, makes him sensitive to
the matter.

Mujahideen Network
--------------


6. (SBU) An informal but close network exists among
the former Mujahideen. At its pinnacle sits the
Governor, who can activate it on short notice. He
hand-picked former comrades to staff the twelve-man
guard forces of the PRT and the twenty-four man road
construction company. They stay in touch and, as
weve discovered on several occasions, share
information with alacrity. In a pinch, the Governor
can mobilize them. A recent example concerns the DDR
mission that came under fire December 13. Within
minutes, the Governor had drawn on his former comrades
to assemble a security force that augmented the ANP
contingent.

Combat Fatigue
--------------




7. (U) Old Soviet armored vehicles litter the valley,
a reminder of the fierce struggle of the 1980s.
Panjshiris tell us they are tired of fighting. A
member of the Provincial Council, Abdul Wajeb, said
Panjshiris want to focus now on economic development.
He told us that Panjshiris, after the years of
conflict, were supportive of the PRT, optimistic about
the future and amenable to DDR weapons removal as long
as economic progress was evident. (Embassy Note: The
program in the Panjshir is part of the UN-led Anti-
Personnel Mines and Ammunition Stockpile Destruction
Program (APMASD),operated by the Afghan New
Beginnings Program (ANBP),which also runs the DDR and
DIAG programs. The APMASDs task is to survey and
safely dispose of the over 100,000 tons of discarded
ammunition throughout Afghanistan. Although
technically APMASD is not part of DDR, DDR is often
used as a catchall for all post-conflict reform
programs. End Embassy Note.)

Poppy Rejection
--------------



8. (U) The provincial economy is predominantly
agricultural. Yet its crops do not include poppy. We
have heard of small poppy plots, but have yet to see
one. Farmers report that religious beliefs and
traditional habits lead to their rejection of poppy
cultivation. Panjshiris pride, they add, is also a
factor. The Governor makes a point of urging farmers
to resist the allure of the crop. (Comment: As a
result, we detect none of the corrosive effects on the
rule of law from trafficking of opium. End Comment.)

Close-knit Society
--------------


9. (SBU) An official of the National Directorate of
Security (NDS) attributed the security of Panjshir to
the iron grip of Massoud on the valley, which kept out
trouble-makers over the years. The Panjshiris,
ethnically Tajik, tend to be close-knit. The history
and topography of the province have also made them
insular. These traits are both positive and negative
for the PRT (see cultural skepticism, below).
Outsiders stick out indeed, starting as they enter
the valley through the Lions Gate, which sits astride
the only road access. An ANP officer, who is in
charge of the gate along with former Mujahideen, told
us he guards it carefully. They stop and check all
traffic going out, night or day; and all traffic
coming in during the night. He allows only government
officials and the PRT to pass without inspection.
Departing trucks get special scrutiny, to determine
whether they are carrying contraband, such as weapons.


10. (U) The negative security factors, outlined
below, are smaller in number and effect. Each,
however, bears watching.

Renegade Maolowi
--------------


11. (SBU) According to the local NDS chief, the
biggest single security concern is Maolowi Mohammed
Khan (MMK). A religious leader, he is in charge of a
mosque and madrassa in Rokah, at the mid-point of the
valley and close to one of the PRT houses. MMK stands
under suspicion of involvement in two security
y
incidents, November 15 and December 13, endangering
DDR convoys. Local authorities have made several
arrests in the case; checkpoints remain in the valley;
but MMK has eluded them. The Governor told us January
18 that VP Massoud had issued an arrest warrant for
MMK, but the arrest attempt January 16 had failed.
The local NDS chief told us that a hundred Panjshiris,
including VP Massoud and NDS head Saleh, had gathered
in Kabul in late November to discuss the matter. They
agreed to press MMK to abandon his DDR obstructionism
and to register his followers as a political party.
MMK reportedly refused, countering that he would try
to stop weapons smuggling out of the valley in
exchange for a halt to the DDR missions. The standoff
continues. (Comment: Although this tension does not
directly affect the PRT, it could spark a
deterioration of security. End Comment.)

DDR Controversy
--------------


12. (SBU) Weapons/ammo removal remains a flashpoint,
as demonstrated by the incidents marring the two
recent DDR missions. As noted, many Panjshiris
support the process to move ahead with economic
reconstruction. Others, however, believe it deprives
the valley of legitimate means of self-defense and is
premature in that the ANA and ANP are not yet able to
provide for national security. Some insist on
monetary rewards for compliance. Resistance has
flared in the village of Paranday, where the two
incidents took place. The Governor has tried various
ways to address popular concerns over DDR. He has,
for example, involved VP Massoud in explaining the
process to the locals; made an offer of reconciliation
to MMKs followers; coordinated more closely with
UNDP/ANBP and ANP on security arrangements; and
conducted a town meeting to educate Panjshiris.
During the latter meeting, held January 5, the
divisive nature of the issue was on display.
(Comment: All of the Governors steps seem to be in
the right direction. End Comment.)

Cultural Skepticism
m
--------------


13. (U) Two-thirds of the Panjshiris, according to
the Governor, were wary at first of the PRT. Their
main fear was that foreigners would rob them of their
religion. The PRT has overcome this skepticism to a
great extent, but some pockets remain. This attitude
reflects the insularity of Panjshir and the
traditional nature of its society. Provincial Council
member Wajeb told us he had to meet three times with
the villagers of Anabah, where one of the PRT houses
is located, to persuade them to welcome us. Western
engineers assigned to the main road project tell us
that their work, with its manifest progress, helps
dispel local wariness. Locals say attitudes have
changed the least in those areas where the road work
has not yet extended that is, in the upper reaches
of the valley. Anti-Coalition propaganda, the
Governor tells us, feeds on this cultural skepticism.

ANA/ANP Immaturity
--------------


14. (SBU) ANA forces total some 20 in Panjshir; ANP,
ANP,
about 250. ANA soldiers are virtually without
profile. Their main task, apparently, is to protecta
smal facility and not without vigilance, as we
discovered when we paid an unannounced call. The PRT
deals extensively with ANP officers, who are
cooperative and part of the Governors security team.
We worked closely with the ANP during a humanitarian
mission last December and ascertained their need for
better training and equipment. For example, when a
scuffle broke out among Afghans, the head of the ANP
contingent was nowhere to be seen. He later
apologized for an untimely tea break.

Comment
--------------


15. (SBU) On balance, the positive factors outweigh
the negative ones, making the security situation
permissive and allowing the PRT to operate actively.
The PRT is attempting to reinforce matters by pushing
for progress on projects; reaching out and being
accessible to Panjshiris; coordinating closely with
the Governor, including on a possible bid for
r
reconciliation with MMK followers; working behind the
scenes to improve DDR missions; and observing our own
security precautions so as not to tempt fate. (End PRT
Comment.)


16. (SBU) Embassy Comment: The view of the D and R
Commission (the Kabul interagency body that deals with
DDR/DIAG issues) on the cooperation of Governor Bahlul
with the Afghan New Beginnings Programs efforts to
secure ammunition in the Panjshir is more negative
then that of the PRT Commander. Bahlul has been called
to Kabul several times by VP Masood to discuss this
issue at the Commissions request. End Embassy
Comment.

NORLAND
D