SECURITY OPERATIONS GROUP SEPT 21: SOUTHERN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 004321

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/FO DAS GASTRIGHT, SCA/A, S/CRS, S/CT, EUR/RPM
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG
NSC FOR AHARRIMAN
OSD FOR BREZINSKI
CENTCOM FOR CFC-A, CG CJTF-76, POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2016
TAGS: PTER MARR PGOV PK AF
SUBJECT: SECURITY OPERATIONS GROUP SEPT 21: SOUTHERN
OPERATIONS AND INTEL BRIEF, AUXILIARY POLICE TEAM UPDATE

REF: KABUL 4161

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Richard Norland for reasons 1.4 b
, d.


1. (S) Summary: Although the usual Policy Action
Group (PAG) was canceled this week due to high-level
travel, Minister Wardak convened the Security
Operations Group (SOG) today, Sept 21, at the
Ministerial level in order to keep up the momentum
on security-related projects, particularly the
auxiliary police. After an extended intel brief,
including presentation of a case of NDS sharing
real-time intelligence with Pakistan,s ISI, there
was some discussion of the various assessment teams
now traveling in the south. Of these it was agreed
that the auxiliary police assessment team is the
most urgent and appears to be on track. Team
representatives in Zabol will begin training the
first tranche of auxiliary police recruits, between
40-60 individuals, on September 23. End summary.


2. (S) The meeting began with security briefings by
MoD, MoI, and NDS, in which the points made at the
Sept 14 PAG were reinforced - military gains in the
south are jeopardized by a lack of ANSF presence in
the districts. Provincial assessments were as
follows:

- Farah: MoD reported that ANA and ANP recently
conducted a successful joint operation in Delaram
valley to recover the town from the Taliban.
Minister of Interior Zarar Moqbil reported that the
situation in Delaram and the districts of Gulistan,
Bela Buruk, and Farah Rud has improved over the past
week. NDS Chief Amarullah Saleh politely differed,
saying that his sources report that the Taliban are
very well entrenched in many parts of Farah off the
main road. He argued that a stabilization operation
is required for Farah, including deployment of more
police. In Delaram, for example, victory could be
quickly reversed if a permanent presence is not
maintained there. Minister Zarar added that Bakwa
remains a problem, since it is a traditional
infiltration route.

- Kandahar: Saleh reported that NDS is picking up
indications from both human and signals intelligence
of a gathering of Taliban forces in Maruf district.
They are able to move relatively freely in that area
due to a lack of ANSF and ISAF/Coalition Forces.
Saleh said they expect a surprise attack on Maruf
district center. He noted that many of the fighters
that had slipped away from Panjwayi are resurfacing
in Maruf. (Note: The $60 million USAID request for
additional roads in Kandahar province is intended to
open up Maruf, a border district that is a no-go
area for pro-government forces and a traditional
infiltration route from northern Baluchistan. End
note.)

- Zabol/Ghazni: Afghan sigint indicates that the
Quetta shura is sending several commanders to Zabol
to distract Coalition forces from the present
operation in Andar district, Ghazni. Intercepts
also make clear that the Quetta shura was aware in
advance of operations in Ghazni (i.e. that
operations security had been compromised).

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- Helmand: Saleh declined to give a detailed report
on Helmand, noting only that the GOA achieved a
tactical success this week when Mullah Abdul Rahim,
the Quetta shura,s choice for governor of Helmand,
was killed or seriously injured together with five
of his men.

- Uruzgan: NDS has reports that 200 Taliban under
the leadership of Mullah Abdul Aziz, have entered
Uruzgan and are planning to attack the district
center of Khas Uruzgan. (Note: Khas Uruzgan borders
the difficult districts of Deh Chopan in Zabol and
Arjistan and Malistan in Ghazni. CJSOTF Forward
Operating Base (FOB) Anaconda is located in Khas
Uruzgan district.)

- Kabul: Based on communications intercepted from
the Miram Shah shura, NDS believes that an increased
number of attacks against Kabul province and city
are being planned. Saleh pointed out that there are
130 entry points into Kabul city, of which 15 are
suitable for vehicles. Only those 15 have
checkpoints; the other 115 are unguarded. Saleh
proposed to convene an operational group to discuss
a plan for perimeter security for the city of Kabul.
The group would also discuss formation of a Joint
Operations Center specifically for Kabul in order to
react against rapid infiltrations. U.S. Embassy
officers as well as MOI, MOD, NDS, ISAF, and
representatives of other Embassies, will attend the
planning meeting for the group. In arguing for the
urgency of a defense plan for Kabul, Saleh noted
that all it would take is a coordinated bombing
campaign targeting civilians for the confidence of
the people to evaporate.

Real-Time Intelligence Sharing with Pakistan
--------------


3. (S) Saleh said that just a few days ago a large
terrorist cell had been disrupted in Kabul through
separate operations by MoI and NDS. Six people have
been arrested and more arrests are expected.
According to Saleh, the terrorists had telephone
communications with their leader, who is in
Peshawar. He said he immediately passed the phone
number, which was still working, to Pakistani ISI.
Saleh said he truly hoped that ISI would make use of
the intelligence to trace and arrest the caller. He
hoped that he would not find in a day or two that
the line had gone dead and no one had been arrested.
He also said he would raise this matter witih an ISI
delegation that he would be meeting with in Kabul
later today (Sept 21).

Auxiliary Police, Audit, and ADZ Team Trips
--------------


4. (C) Minister Wardak and other members of the SOG
updated the group on the status of the three teams
now in the provinces on assessment trips. The ADZ
team, under the leadership of the Ministry of
Education, has gone to Kandahar and Tarin Kowt. It
will shortly proceed to Qalat and Lashkar Gah, and
will return to Kabul to report its findings. The
audit team, under the leadership of the MoD and in
coordination with MoI, will shortly head south to

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begin a headcount of ANA and ANP and a weapons and
equipment audit of ANP (ANA recently fielded a
separate equipment audit team.)


5. (C) MoI reported to the group that the auxiliary
police assessment team in Zabol has identified 60
initial recruits and will begin training on
Saturday, September 23. Deputy Minister of Interior
Khalid will travel to Zabol with CSTC-A Brigadier
General O,Brien to oversee the beginning of the
formal program and make sure it is on track. (Note:
INL experts in Zabol have told us that there are
completed applications for 40 recruits. On Saturday
they will sign their contracts and begin in-
processing. These individuals were actually among
those recruited by Deputy Minister Khalid on his
trip to Zabol two weeks ago and have been assigned
to highway checkpoints, positions they will continue
to man while in training. End note.)
NORLAND