UNODC DIRECTOR COSTA NOTES RISE IN 2006 OPIUM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000318

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE PASS TO SA AMBASSADOR QUINN, INL/FO, NSC FOR
AHARRIMAN AND KAMEND

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2016
TAGS: PGOV SNAR AF
SUBJECT: UNODC DIRECTOR COSTA NOTES RISE IN 2006 OPIUM
CULTIVATION; URGES GOA-LED ERADICATION EFFORT

Classified By: ADCM ANGUS SIMMONS FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) Summary: During an official visit to Afghanistan
(January 19-22),Executive Director of the United Nations
Office of Drugs and Crime (UNODC) Antonio Maria Costa met
with US, UK, and GOA officials to discuss GOA CN programs.
Director Costa met with President Karzai on January 21 and
presented him with the summary findings of UNODC's 2006 Rapid
Assessment Opium Cultivation Survey for Afghanistan (RAS).
Director Costa discussed the expected increase in opium
cultivation for 2006 and GOA eradication efforts, especially
governor-led eradication (GLE). End Summary.


2. (C) UNODC's Executive Director Antonio Maria Costa, in
Afghanistan January 19-22 for an official visit with the GOA,
met with counter narcotics (CN) officials from the US and UK.
On January 19, Director Costa met with Embassy Kabul CN Task
Force Director Doug Wankel to discuss, in broad terms, the CN
situation in Afghanistan. Citing the findings of the RAS,
Costa said that opium cultivation will likely increase in
2006 (a view shared by CNTF Director Wankel) and that
governor-led eradication (GLE) is necessary and will need to
be effectively implemented, if the GOA is to sustain and seek
to reduce 2005 opium cultivation levels. Director Costa said
that he would discuss the RAS with President Karzai to obtain
his views and discuss what should be done to offset the
reported increase in planting of opium poppy.


3. (C) On January 21, at a dinner hosted by UK Ambassador
Rosalind Marsden, Director Costa told CNTF Director that he
had met with President Karzai and discussed the findings of
the RAS and stressed the need for GOA eradication action.
Director Costa said he was pleased with the President's
response and seeming "acceptance" of the summary results,
saying that his staff had been keeping him informed of
expected developments on the cultivation front. He said,
while he was not happy, he was not surprised that poppy
cultivation may increase this year. Karzai went on to say
that he has directed the Afghan Ministry of Interior (MOI)
and the Provincial Governors to ensure that there is
effective, Governor-led eradication this year throughout
Afghanistan. Karzai told Costa that he would be speaking to a
number of governors, that the MOI is bringing to Kabul on
January 24 in order to finalize operational plans for
eradication. President Karzai said that he would make clear
their responsibility in ensuring eradication of opium poppy
in their respective provinces. Costa noted that Karzai
appeared much more engaged and knowledgeable about the opium
cultivation situation and eradication needs than in previous
meetings.


4. (C) Costa, supportive of governor-led eradication (GLE),
has instructed UNODC's Afghanistan office to support GLE by
conducting the monitoring and verification of GOA opium
eradication to include GLE eradication, Afghan National
Police eradication and Afghan Eradication Force (AEF)
eradication. Director Costa said, "in order for there to be
sustainment of opium cultivation at the 2005 level, or lower,
it is essential that GLE be effective and carried out in all
of the key poppy cultivation provinces of Afghanistan."


5. (C) On January 23, CNTF Director Wankel received the
Summary Findings of the RAS. The survey indicates that there
is an expected increase in opium cultivation in 13 provinces,
a decrease in 3 provinces and in 15 provinces cultivation is
expected to be at the same level as last year. The Summary
Findings also conclude that overall opium cultivation will be
higher than in 2005, but does not give a projected level.
Sharp increases are projected for the PEP Provinces of
Badakhshan, Helmand, Nangarhar and Uruzgan; the same level of
cultivation as last year is projected for Balkh, Farah and
Kandahar. The RAS also points out that security is a concern
in Kandahar, Northern and Southern Helmand, Zabul, Farah and
the border districts of Nangarhar, Paktya, Paktika and Khost.
The RAS concludes that GLE will begin to be significantly
implemented by mid-January and that the Afghan National
Police and the AEF will conduct later eradication, these
activities will be better organized and coordinated between
the GOA and its stakeholders, and eradication will likely be
more successful in 2006 than it was in 2005.


6. (C) Comment: The Rapid Assessment Survey (RAS) confirms
what the Embassy, the UK, the GOA and the relevant CN
authorities have believed for some time--opium planting
levels will be up in 2006. That's the bad news. The good news
is that the central government and the governors of most of
the major poppy growing provinces are committed to
eradication and are taking action to ensure governor-led
eradication (GLE). To date, operational planning for GLE has
been conducted at the ministerial and provincial levels and
extensive communication and coordination is occurring between
the central government, the provinces and the relevant
international authorities (US, UK, ISAF, CFC-A, UNODC).
Significantly, the GOA recognizes the magnitude of the opium
cultivation problem and that eradication is a critical
component of the CN Implementation Plan necessary to meet the
goals of the Afghan National Drug Control Strategy (NDCS) to
sustain and reduce opium cultivation from 2005 levels. Karzai
is holding the governors responsible for eradication and in
turn the governors know that they can rely on the central
government for eradication resources, supplied by the U.S.
and U.K. Many of the governors are heeding the President's
call for action and are planning for eradication operations.
Some governors, Kandarhar, Balkh, and a few others are
reported to have already begun eradication operations.


7. (C) The Embassy is fully-aware that meaningful delivery of
eradication operations is needed to back up the GOA and the
governors' stated commitments to eradication. The Embassy
knows that there are many variables which could derail the
GOA's intentions and disrupt efforts,--security being one of
the most worrisome of these concerns. We are hopeful that
farmer resistance (as seen in Maiwand District last year)
will not be an issue in too many areas during GLE, but
concern remains that Afghan insurgents and/or drug
traffickers could spur farmers and villagers to resist
eradication efforts. By the end of February or the beginning
of March, the Embassy will have participated in and monitored
and verified enough events surrounding eradication to predict
the GLE campaign's level of success. In the interim, the
Embassy will continue its reports on the progress, problems
and setbacks relating to GLE. End Comment.
NORLAND