Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06KABUL294
2006-01-23 10:06:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Kabul
Cable title:
SURVEY POINTS TO SUCCESS IN COUNTER NARCOTIC
how-toThis record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 KABUL 000294
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR INL/FO AND SA/FO AMB QUINN
NSC FOR AHARRIMAN/KAMED
E.O. 12958 N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER SNAR KCRM AF
SUBJECT: SURVEY POINTS TO SUCCESS IN COUNTER NARCOTIC
COMMUNICATIONS
REF: N/A
--------------
SUMMARY
--------------
(1) Counter narcotic (CN) messages are reaching Afghans
nationwide and within the poppy eradication provinces
(PEP),reports a public opinion survey conducted in late
November by a major polling company commissioned by
INL/Kabul. Some 75 percent of Afghans have heard CN
messages on radio; 73% have heard CN messages from
President Karzai, and 80% have discussed CN issues with
family and friends. CN messages resonate with between
2/3rds and 4/5ths of Afghans depending on the specific
issue: they overwhelmingly agree that narcotics trade
damages the nations reputation, that narco-traffickers
should be stopped, and that the proximity of narcotics
leads to addiction. However, barely half are aware of
addicts in their own communities and two-thirds think that
poppy cultivation is essential to farmers survival.
While Afghans most readily turn to President Karzai, other
national officials and indigenous media to point out right
from wrong on national issues, local decisions are
overwhelmingly influenced by family and neighbors,
suggesting that more aggressive local initiatives are
needed to increase social pressure, converting CN
understanding into CN action.
--------------
SCIENTIFIC POLL ADVANCES CN UNDERSTANDING
ING
--------------
(2) INL/Kabuls first poll since spring 2005 was conducted
by Kabul-based D3/ASCOR, an international firm formerly
tied to Gallup/Pakistan, that has done survey work in more
than 80 countries. They surveyed 31 provinces (but not
Nimruz, Oruzgan and Zabul due to security concerns) on a
demographically representative national sample of 1041,
with an additional 200 each in the PEP provinces of
Nangarhar, Kandahar, Helmand, Farah, Balkh, and Badakshan
making 2240 total.
--------------
MEDIA DELIVERING CN MESSAGES
--------------
(3) Television use is growing rapidly, with 35% nationwide
claiming to see television news weekly or more, rising to
75% in Balkh attributed to high urban television ownership
there. This controversial figure is still less than 88% of
Afghans getting news from radio. Newspapers (7%) and
magazines (4%) influence small urban elite. Nationally, 42%
turn first to BBC radio, 31% to Afghan state radio, 30% to
Azadi FM; 22% to Afghan state television and 20% to the
Voice of America (Ashna FM). These numbers vary by province
but not dramatically.
(4) Some 75% nationally have heard CN messages on radio,
dropping as low as 2/3rds in Nangarhar and Helmand but
rising as high as 91% in Balkh. CN messages heard on
television average 20-30 percent, dropping to the high
teens and low 20s for print media. Importantly, 73%
nationwide have heard CN messages from President Karzai,
and 80% from family or friends. Somewhat less than half
report hearing CN messages from village elders, clergy and
governors. CN posters, stickers and matchboxes have reached
between 25 and 40 percent of respondents.
--------------
AFGHANS ANTI-POPPY BUT SYMPATHETIC TO FARMERS
--------------
(5) The poll went into detail following findings in spring
2005 that showed 90% of Afghans thought poppy farming
wrong. Nationally 82% now say poppy cultivation makes
warlords and criminals rich (down to 61% and 69 %
respectively in Badakshan and Helmand). Some 78% said it
corrupts Afghan government officials (47% in Badakshan and
64% in Kandahar). Some 80% said it harms the reputation of
Afghanistan (62% in Badakshan and 63% in Helmand). Three-
quarters said that drug crops cause addiction locally; but
50% saw no addicts where they lived (up to 79% in Nangarhar
and 67% in Kandahar). Some 67% said that local government
wishes to stop narcotic cultivation but is unable (down
slightly to 62% in Helmand and 63% in Kandahar).
(6) Afghans are strongly opposed to narcotics buyers and
traffickers. Some 79% nationally say that they take
advantage of poor farmers (up to 91% in Balkh); 74% say it
puts farmers into debt; and 66% describe buyers and
traffickers as outsiders (this falls from 79% in Balkh to
49% in Kandahar and 51% in Farah). Some 79% describe them
as violent and dangerous, and 76% say that local people
ple
are afraid of them. Large numbers agree that they should
be forced to stop 81% nationally to a low of 63% in
Helmand.
(7) Yet Afghans are sympathetic to poppy farmers. Some 62%
of Afghans believe that income from poppy is essential
(rising to 73% in Balkh and 75% in Nangarhar, where the
poppy crop was reduced by around 90% last year, suggesting
that there the loss of last years illicit income is being
felt this year). At the same time, in most places Afghans
term poppy farming a large crime rather than a small one.
Nationally, 68% said it is a big crime (in Nangarhar and
Helmand 65% dissented, terming it a small crime).
(8) Significantly, many Afghans believe that poppy farming
is a major crime, but that nonetheless it is essential for
the survival of farmers.
--------------
AFGHANS LOOK LOCALLY FOR MORAL LEADERSHIP
--------------
(9) On national issues, Afghans overwhelmingly turn to
urn to
national authorities for advice. Some 32% rely on President
Karzai or other national figures, 33% turn to Afghan
government broadcast media; only ten percent to foreign
broadcast media and eight percent to local leaders such as
elders. Yet overall, factoring in local and regional
issues, Afghan overwhelmingly listen to local sources.
Family and friends, elders and maliks added together scored
four times higher than President Karzai and three times
higher than Afghan national broadcast media. Mullahs polled
lower than expected, about the same as President Karzai,
but presumably many local issues have no religious or moral
component on which clerical advice may be most valued.
(10) Overall, Afghans pay attention to facts delivered from
trusted national sources, but it could be argued that on
local issues their behavior is more strongly affected by
local influences by a factor of 3:1 or 4:1.
(11) Afghans are talking about the ethics of poppy farming,
and 57% nationally say that CN issues are discussed at
home; and 47% say they are discussed a lot. This rises to
Helmand where 65% of families discuss CN issues, 84%
talking a lot. Nationwide, people say that these
discussions make people less in favor of poppy farming (as
opposed to more in favor) by 64:6 (this drops to 28:23 in
Kandahar where poppy appears to have more vocal defenders).
--------------
STRATEGY: THINK GLOBAL, ACT LOCAL
--------------
(12) Forthcoming governor-led and central-led eradication
may generate popular support for protest or opposition, if
people are motivated out of sympathy for poor farmers; or
it may enjoy support if people concentrate on their strong
moral and practical opposition to narcotics and narcotics
traffickers. However it is clear that Afghans tend to
generalize that all poppy farmers are so poor as to be
reliant on poppy income for survival. This needs to be
be
challenged through advertising and promoted through news
coverage, but there is no solid qualitative or quantitative
evidence to present to the Afghan public or to journalists.
(13) Anticipating eradication, the current crop of
communications outputs include radio and television ads,
comic booklets, matchboxes, stickers, banners, etc. These
are being designed to focus on two issues primarily. First
is rule of law issues to demonstrate that traffickers are
being arrested and that farmers will not solely bear the
burden of poppy eradication. Second is Alternative
Livelihoods interventions, stressing that these are
provided for all poor law-abiding farmers, not as
recompense for poppy growers. However there is a limited
number of AL activities that can be profiled in a small
number of ads.
(14) The CN campaign swiftly needs a comprehensive
livelihoods survey in the PEP provinces, gauging family
incomes, discretionary incomes, debt, elasticity, sources
of farm and non-farm earning, irrigated and unirrigated
land ownership etc, at a district level or lower. Only then
can the Ministry of Counter Narcotics (MCN) and other GOA
agencies defend eradication in general and in specific
areas, thus shatter the notion that all poppy farmers are
driven to break the law by cruel necessity.
(15) Meanwhile, the communications officers in the PEP
programs have been tasked by the MCN to compile
comprehensive lists of social contact points and potential
stakeholder allies, for a protracted campaign by district
to increase social pressures on poppy farmers. This
strategy aspires to mobilize students, health workers, shop
owners and others as well as clergy and local government,
to increase the climate of social resistance to poppy,
generating pressure at the local level where Afghans say
that it will make the biggest impact.
--------------
CONCLUSION
--------------
(16) Print and broadcast messages, plus CN statements from
senior GOA officials, have attracted notice and spurred
discussions that clearly help strengthen Afghans need to
eliminate poppy cultivation. Yet the recent CN poll
indicates that the strongest motivational messages come
from friends, family and local leaders. An optimal CN
communications campaign will inform and mobilize those
social forces, helping to turn ethical perceptions into
social pressure, and social pressure into action.
NORLAND
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR INL/FO AND SA/FO AMB QUINN
NSC FOR AHARRIMAN/KAMED
E.O. 12958 N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER SNAR KCRM AF
SUBJECT: SURVEY POINTS TO SUCCESS IN COUNTER NARCOTIC
COMMUNICATIONS
REF: N/A
--------------
SUMMARY
--------------
(1) Counter narcotic (CN) messages are reaching Afghans
nationwide and within the poppy eradication provinces
(PEP),reports a public opinion survey conducted in late
November by a major polling company commissioned by
INL/Kabul. Some 75 percent of Afghans have heard CN
messages on radio; 73% have heard CN messages from
President Karzai, and 80% have discussed CN issues with
family and friends. CN messages resonate with between
2/3rds and 4/5ths of Afghans depending on the specific
issue: they overwhelmingly agree that narcotics trade
damages the nations reputation, that narco-traffickers
should be stopped, and that the proximity of narcotics
leads to addiction. However, barely half are aware of
addicts in their own communities and two-thirds think that
poppy cultivation is essential to farmers survival.
While Afghans most readily turn to President Karzai, other
national officials and indigenous media to point out right
from wrong on national issues, local decisions are
overwhelmingly influenced by family and neighbors,
suggesting that more aggressive local initiatives are
needed to increase social pressure, converting CN
understanding into CN action.
--------------
SCIENTIFIC POLL ADVANCES CN UNDERSTANDING
ING
--------------
(2) INL/Kabuls first poll since spring 2005 was conducted
by Kabul-based D3/ASCOR, an international firm formerly
tied to Gallup/Pakistan, that has done survey work in more
than 80 countries. They surveyed 31 provinces (but not
Nimruz, Oruzgan and Zabul due to security concerns) on a
demographically representative national sample of 1041,
with an additional 200 each in the PEP provinces of
Nangarhar, Kandahar, Helmand, Farah, Balkh, and Badakshan
making 2240 total.
--------------
MEDIA DELIVERING CN MESSAGES
--------------
(3) Television use is growing rapidly, with 35% nationwide
claiming to see television news weekly or more, rising to
75% in Balkh attributed to high urban television ownership
there. This controversial figure is still less than 88% of
Afghans getting news from radio. Newspapers (7%) and
magazines (4%) influence small urban elite. Nationally, 42%
turn first to BBC radio, 31% to Afghan state radio, 30% to
Azadi FM; 22% to Afghan state television and 20% to the
Voice of America (Ashna FM). These numbers vary by province
but not dramatically.
(4) Some 75% nationally have heard CN messages on radio,
dropping as low as 2/3rds in Nangarhar and Helmand but
rising as high as 91% in Balkh. CN messages heard on
television average 20-30 percent, dropping to the high
teens and low 20s for print media. Importantly, 73%
nationwide have heard CN messages from President Karzai,
and 80% from family or friends. Somewhat less than half
report hearing CN messages from village elders, clergy and
governors. CN posters, stickers and matchboxes have reached
between 25 and 40 percent of respondents.
--------------
AFGHANS ANTI-POPPY BUT SYMPATHETIC TO FARMERS
--------------
(5) The poll went into detail following findings in spring
2005 that showed 90% of Afghans thought poppy farming
wrong. Nationally 82% now say poppy cultivation makes
warlords and criminals rich (down to 61% and 69 %
respectively in Badakshan and Helmand). Some 78% said it
corrupts Afghan government officials (47% in Badakshan and
64% in Kandahar). Some 80% said it harms the reputation of
Afghanistan (62% in Badakshan and 63% in Helmand). Three-
quarters said that drug crops cause addiction locally; but
50% saw no addicts where they lived (up to 79% in Nangarhar
and 67% in Kandahar). Some 67% said that local government
wishes to stop narcotic cultivation but is unable (down
slightly to 62% in Helmand and 63% in Kandahar).
(6) Afghans are strongly opposed to narcotics buyers and
traffickers. Some 79% nationally say that they take
advantage of poor farmers (up to 91% in Balkh); 74% say it
puts farmers into debt; and 66% describe buyers and
traffickers as outsiders (this falls from 79% in Balkh to
49% in Kandahar and 51% in Farah). Some 79% describe them
as violent and dangerous, and 76% say that local people
ple
are afraid of them. Large numbers agree that they should
be forced to stop 81% nationally to a low of 63% in
Helmand.
(7) Yet Afghans are sympathetic to poppy farmers. Some 62%
of Afghans believe that income from poppy is essential
(rising to 73% in Balkh and 75% in Nangarhar, where the
poppy crop was reduced by around 90% last year, suggesting
that there the loss of last years illicit income is being
felt this year). At the same time, in most places Afghans
term poppy farming a large crime rather than a small one.
Nationally, 68% said it is a big crime (in Nangarhar and
Helmand 65% dissented, terming it a small crime).
(8) Significantly, many Afghans believe that poppy farming
is a major crime, but that nonetheless it is essential for
the survival of farmers.
--------------
AFGHANS LOOK LOCALLY FOR MORAL LEADERSHIP
--------------
(9) On national issues, Afghans overwhelmingly turn to
urn to
national authorities for advice. Some 32% rely on President
Karzai or other national figures, 33% turn to Afghan
government broadcast media; only ten percent to foreign
broadcast media and eight percent to local leaders such as
elders. Yet overall, factoring in local and regional
issues, Afghan overwhelmingly listen to local sources.
Family and friends, elders and maliks added together scored
four times higher than President Karzai and three times
higher than Afghan national broadcast media. Mullahs polled
lower than expected, about the same as President Karzai,
but presumably many local issues have no religious or moral
component on which clerical advice may be most valued.
(10) Overall, Afghans pay attention to facts delivered from
trusted national sources, but it could be argued that on
local issues their behavior is more strongly affected by
local influences by a factor of 3:1 or 4:1.
(11) Afghans are talking about the ethics of poppy farming,
and 57% nationally say that CN issues are discussed at
home; and 47% say they are discussed a lot. This rises to
Helmand where 65% of families discuss CN issues, 84%
talking a lot. Nationwide, people say that these
discussions make people less in favor of poppy farming (as
opposed to more in favor) by 64:6 (this drops to 28:23 in
Kandahar where poppy appears to have more vocal defenders).
--------------
STRATEGY: THINK GLOBAL, ACT LOCAL
--------------
(12) Forthcoming governor-led and central-led eradication
may generate popular support for protest or opposition, if
people are motivated out of sympathy for poor farmers; or
it may enjoy support if people concentrate on their strong
moral and practical opposition to narcotics and narcotics
traffickers. However it is clear that Afghans tend to
generalize that all poppy farmers are so poor as to be
reliant on poppy income for survival. This needs to be
be
challenged through advertising and promoted through news
coverage, but there is no solid qualitative or quantitative
evidence to present to the Afghan public or to journalists.
(13) Anticipating eradication, the current crop of
communications outputs include radio and television ads,
comic booklets, matchboxes, stickers, banners, etc. These
are being designed to focus on two issues primarily. First
is rule of law issues to demonstrate that traffickers are
being arrested and that farmers will not solely bear the
burden of poppy eradication. Second is Alternative
Livelihoods interventions, stressing that these are
provided for all poor law-abiding farmers, not as
recompense for poppy growers. However there is a limited
number of AL activities that can be profiled in a small
number of ads.
(14) The CN campaign swiftly needs a comprehensive
livelihoods survey in the PEP provinces, gauging family
incomes, discretionary incomes, debt, elasticity, sources
of farm and non-farm earning, irrigated and unirrigated
land ownership etc, at a district level or lower. Only then
can the Ministry of Counter Narcotics (MCN) and other GOA
agencies defend eradication in general and in specific
areas, thus shatter the notion that all poppy farmers are
driven to break the law by cruel necessity.
(15) Meanwhile, the communications officers in the PEP
programs have been tasked by the MCN to compile
comprehensive lists of social contact points and potential
stakeholder allies, for a protracted campaign by district
to increase social pressures on poppy farmers. This
strategy aspires to mobilize students, health workers, shop
owners and others as well as clergy and local government,
to increase the climate of social resistance to poppy,
generating pressure at the local level where Afghans say
that it will make the biggest impact.
--------------
CONCLUSION
--------------
(16) Print and broadcast messages, plus CN statements from
senior GOA officials, have attracted notice and spurred
discussions that clearly help strengthen Afghans need to
eliminate poppy cultivation. Yet the recent CN poll
indicates that the strongest motivational messages come
from friends, family and local leaders. An optimal CN
communications campaign will inform and mobilize those
social forces, helping to turn ethical perceptions into
social pressure, and social pressure into action.
NORLAND