PRT/FARAH - DIAG PHASE 1, MILESTONE OR MILLSTONE?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002685

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CT
NSC FOR AHARRIMAN
CENTCOM FOR CG CFC-A, CG CJTF-76 POLAD
REL NATO/ISAF/AS/NZ

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/2026
TAGS: PREL PHUM PINR PGOV AF
SUBJECT: PRT/FARAH - DIAG PHASE 1, MILESTONE OR MILLSTONE?

Classified By: A/POL COUNSELOR MARY TOWNSWICK FOR REASONS
1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary: Phase I Disbandment of Illegal Armed Groups
(DIAG) commenced May 21 in Farah, with great official
fanfare. Although the televised event was high on GOA and
ISAF voltage, a last minute change of IAG lists by the Herat
DIAG Committee led to participation of only two of nineteen
IAG leaders. Governor Wasifi was also distracted by protests
over his exclusion from a presidential visit to Tehran, which
took focus away from DIAG. Ultimately, Farah lacks resources
to back up program enforcement, so the program remains
impotent. However, Farah is not willing to surrender, and
has already reengaged IAG leaders. Farah's officials
understand without security, economic and social development
is impossible. End summary.


2. (C) Farah celebrated the inauguration of Phase I of the
DIAG process May 21 with a televised event hosted by Governor
Wasifi and attended by Kabul Deputy Ministers of Interior,
Defense, and Rural Rehabilitation and Development and a
ranking member of the National Directorate of Security (NDS).
The event was highlighted by participation of ISAF Deputy
Commander for Stability MG Gay and Japanese Ambassador
Norihiro Okuda. Although 19 IAF commanders were invited,
only two were present to receive letters requesting them to
turn in their weapons.

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The Name Game
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3. (C) The lack of IAG participation may have been in part
due to poor communications of ISAF's intent to hold a shura.
Another dilemma was a last minute change of names on the IAG
list. Prior to the ceremony, the provincially vetted list
was sent to the DIAG Directorate Regional Coordination center
in Herat. Inexplicably, many of the names were deleted or
changed. Of the names on the list, several are already
incarcerated or live in different countries. Provincial
Council member Zia Uddin was furious in his inclusion as he
formalized his non-involvement before running for political
office. Ironically, moments before he was handed the letter,
he gave a vehement pro-DIAG speech. Another on the list
reportedly told friends he had nothing to do with illegal
organizations and went into hiding, afraid that, "people are
trying to put him in jail."

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Other Provincial Politics Steal Focus
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4. (C) Timing of the ceremony also was unfortunate, as the
previous day, President Karzai announced a trip to Tehran
with the governors of Farah's neighboring provinces, but
excluded Governor Wasifi. The slight was seen as a blow to
Farah's economic and construction opportunities with Iran and
resulted in a heated demonstration of merchants and
educators. Wasifi used the media event to vent on the
subject and announce his intent to meet with President
Karzai. While this incident took the focus off of DIAG, it
likely averted further provincial unrest.

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Since the Kickoff
--------------


5. (C) Farah's DIAG program immediately reengaged. To cap
off a week-long visit by DIAG Southern Regional Manager Sher
Jan Mayar, DIAG hosted a luncheon for the entire list of 162
provincial IAG leaders on June 3. Almost 140 attended and
listened to speeches by Governor Wasifi, Provincial Council
members, the Chief of Police, and the NDS Chief. IAG leaders
appeared willing to listen and re-engage. Farah's DIAG
steering committee restated its commitment to the program and
discussed new strategies and messages. While Mayar privately
pronounced DIAG "dead" in Farah, Farah's officials are not
willing to capitulate, as they recognize prosperity is only

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obtainable with security.

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A Milestone or a Millstone?
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6. (C) PRTOff Comment: DIAG Phase I failed to impress as a
milestone for Farah's positive future. Continuous,
face-to-face negotiations last year yielded minimal results
and the distribution of letters did not appear to demonstrate
strength or advancement in tactics, but rather a threat of
action Farah cannot enforce. Lack of ANP manpower,
equipment, and training, with no plans for augmentation until
October 2008, underscore the central government's lack of
ability to effectively implement DIAG and more generally its
inability to provide needed assistance to the province. Even
calls for uniforms and identification cards have gone
unheeded. ANA in Farah has been reduced from six Kandaks to
one. They remain inexperienced in the type of operations
required if DIAG enforcement is necessary. Joint operations
with the ANP beyond mere foot patrols are as yet nonexistent.
Despite these challenges, Farah's officials, with help from
PRTOffs, plan to develop new DIAG tactics, emphasizing with
the message that, without better security, economic and
social development is impossible. DIAG remains an important,
though currently unachievable, step towards this security.
End comment.
NEUMANN