KABUL SCENESETTER FOR CODEL INHOFE

UNCLAS KABUL 002365

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE PASS H SCOTT FISHER

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON OTRA AF
SUBJECT: KABUL SCENESETTER FOR CODEL INHOFE


1. (SBU) Summary: The U.S. effort in Afghanistan continues to
promote economic reconstruction, build democratic
institutions and develop the government's capacity to deal
with continuing threats to security. The Afghanistan Compact
adopted at the January London Conference and Parliament
elected in September and seated in December 2005 are major
achievements. Significant challenges remain however,
including the need for economic reform and development and an
uptick in the level of violence this year, particularly in
the south. The recent Christian convert case of Abdul Rahman
caused perplexity among many in the West and concern among
the Afghan population because of the contradiction in the
Afghan Constitution between the right enshrined in the
Universal Declaration of Human Rights and respect for Sharia
Law - both of which are written into the Constitution. In
order to ensure that U.S. nation-building efforts in
Afghanistan are successful, we will have to remain committed
for years to come to ensure that Afghanistan does not once
again become a breeding ground for extremist terrorist
groups. End Summary.

The Afghanistan Compact
--------------


2. (SBU) At the January 2006 Afghanistan Conference in
London, President Karzai presented to the world the face of a
reborn and newly confident Afghanistan that, with the seating
of its first parliament in 32 years, has successfully
fulfilled the last major task set out in the 2001 Bonn
Agreement. There he delivered to the broader international
donor community a post-Bonn vision of integrated political,
economic and social development designed to ensure a donor
and IFI commitment to provide Afghanistan the support needed
to see it through the next five years. An Afghanistan
Compact that lays out these accomplishments and this vision
was endorsed by over 60 national delegations who pledged USD
10.5 billion in additional support. The key principle of the
Compact is Afghan leadership of - and accountability for -
its reconstruction and development process. It identifies
four interdependent areas - Security; Governance, Rule of
Law and Human Rights; and Sustainable Economic and Social
Development; plus a crosscutting Counternarcotics agenda that
need to be tackled over the next five years. The Compact
sets out over 90 high-level benchmarks to measure progress
and creates a UN and GoA-led monitoring and coordination
board to ensure appropriate GoA and international community
engagement.

The Afghan Economy
--------------


3. (SBU) In the four and a half years since the Taliban's
defeat, post-conflict Afghanistan has achieved a remarkable
degree of macro-economic stability that is laying a
foundation for economic growth, development and job creation.
Yet progress is fragile - with an average longevity of only
47 years, twenty percent literacy, and only 6 percent of the
population enjoying access to electricity from the national
grid - life for millions of Afghans has not advanced much
beyond the Middle Ages. Sustaining a viable Afghan nation
will require the GoA to continue structural reforms
encouraging private sector development; work hard to enhance
customs and tax revenue generation; target its limited budget
resources at pro-poor spending and productive investment; and
contain wage costs. Until that point ) at least a decade
down the road -- when the GoA can generate sufficient
domestic customs and tax revenue to cover its recurring
budget expenses, Afghanistan will require a steady, reliable
and well-coordinated flow of assistance from the United
States and from the broad international donor community.


4. (U) Economic growth in Afghanistan will be driven by
private sector-led development. The most serious constraints
on such private sector development remain security and access
to basic factors of production, including physical utilities
and infrastructure (power, water, telecom, roads, etc.),
land, skilled labor and finance. The willingness of
investors to put capital into play is further limited by a
still inadequate commercial and financial sector activity.
None of these constraints is unique to Afghanistan,s
post-conflict economy. But their concentration and
telescoped immediacy brings the limited capacity of the GoA's
line economic ministries into sharp relief. Two key areas of
commercial reform where the GoA has lagged are in
establishing a legislative framework and in privatizing
state-owned enterprises.

Parliament
--------------


5. (U) Afghanistan's National Assembly is the country's first
democratically elected legislature since the Soviet invasion.
Its members are diverse, including former warlords and
mujahideen commanders, tribal leaders, intellectuals, former
leftists, reconciled Taliban and professionals. All are
eager to learn from international experience and wish to
establish a close relationship with the U.S. Congress.


6. (U) The National Assembly consists of two houses, the
Meshrano Jirga (upper house - 68 members elected by
Provincial Councils and 34 appointed by President Karzai) and
the Wolesi Jirga (lower house ) 249 members elected by
province on September 18, 2005). One of the great
achievements of Afghan women in post-Bonn Afghanistan is the
fact that there are 68 women (one-quarter) in the Wolesi
Jirga and 29 women in the Meshrano Jirga. These women MPs
are talented and playing a vital and accepted role in the
Parliament.


7. (SBU) Parliament has hit a rough spot after months of
successfully organizing itself and a positive vote on the
Cabinet (confirming 20 of 25 ministers). Parliament rejected
the Afghan budget May 21 ) on the grounds civil service
salaries and payments to the disabled should be increased.
The GOA was not able to accept these amendments due to
international conditions attached to the budget, and the
process is now at an impasse. On May 24, Parliament approved
only two of nine Supreme Court Justice nominees ) with
voting that may have taken place on ethnic grounds. They
have also spent an extended amount of time talking about
internal procedures (including the definition of a
parliamentary majority). The upper house of Parliament also
recently voted to form a commission to review the security
situation in the country.


8. (U) USAID funds several projects to support the National
Assembly. They technical assistance and training on legal
procedure through the State University of New York (SUNY)
Center for International Development. The National
Democratic Institute (NDI) and International Republican
Institute (IRI),which receive USAID funding, will also
conduct programs on constituent relations and
coalition-building in the near future.

Abdul Rahman Case
--------------


9. (SBU) The Christian convert case of Abdul Rahman focused
international attention on the lack of protection for
religious freedom (the right of conversion) in Afghanistan.
Credible evidence indicated that Rahman had a history of
being under a doctor's care, and on medication, as well as
allegedly abusing his family. The case received huge
attention both in the West and in Afghanistan where the
overwhelming majority of Afghans, in their interpretation of
Islam,s tenets, do not support the right of conversion. A
contradiction remains in the Afghan Constitution, which
states that & no law can be contrary to the beliefs and
provisions of the sacred religion of Islam,8 (and Shariah
Law),while also stating support for the Universal
Declaration on Human Rights, which specifically includes the
right of conversion. Helping Afghanistan to resolve this
contradiction will likely be the focus of our efforts for
some time. The GOA was able to release Rahman from detention
on the grounds that facts concerning his mental state
rendered the case incomplete, and he subsequently received
asylum in Italy.

Security
--------------


10. (SBU) There has been a significant increase in security
incidents and attacks since the beginning of the year, an
increase which the Embassy predicted. There are many reasons
behind the upsurge ) from pushback to poppy interdiction
efforts in the south, to the Taliban,s desire to &test8
newly-arriving ISAF forces taking over from the coalition in
the South. The GOA is developing a plan to send more Afghan
National Police to areas in the south which have heightened
security concerns. Details on the security situation are
sensitive, but the codel will be briefed on the key issues
the morning of their arrival.

Conclusion
--------------


11. (SBU) Afghanistan is where the 9/11 plot was hatched.
The U.S government is working hard at the task of
nation-building to ensure that Afghanistan will never again
be the source of another major terrorist attack. In order to
succeed, it is crucial that we continue our long term
commitment to support the creation of a democratic, stable
and prosperous Afghanistan. We will continue to work on
security to provide a safe environment for development. Many
challenges remain in improving the economy, putting
Afghanistan's nascent democracy on a stronger footing and
creating a stable Afghanistan that is part of the modern
world. It is in our country's vital interest to see this
effort through.
NEUMANN