PRT/BAMYAN: KHALILI SUPPORTERS MUDDY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 001887

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA/FO, SA/A, S/CR, EUR/RPM
NSC FOR AMEND AND HARRIMAN
OSD FOR BREZEZINSKI
REL NATO/AUST/NZ/ISAF
CENTCOM FOR CG CFC-A, CG CJTF-76

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958 N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: PRT/BAMYAN: KHALILI SUPPORTERS MUDDY
POLITICAL WATERS IN BAMYAN

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Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) The supporters of Second Vice President
Khalili are playing political hardball, and Governor
Sarabi appears to be their target. Minority Tajik
unrest, which has received tacit backing from Khalili
stalwarts, appears designed to discredit the Governor.
The recent appointment of a crony of former Governor
Aliyar as Deputy Chief of Police and Governor Sarabis
recent meeting with President Karzai only bolster the
perception of her isolation. Sarabi has a tough hand
to play, and is in sore need of some recognizable
wins to counter the notion that she cannot deliver
improvements to the lives of Bamyans people. Sarabi
is looking to donors, especially the US, to deliver
those wins. End Summary.

Minority Tajik Complaints Fuel for Political In-
Fighting
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---


2. (SBU) Tajik grumblings about their treatment at
the hands of the Hazara are being heard all the way to
Kabul. Aide-de-camp to Governor Habiba Sarabi Mr.
Amir Fooladi explained to PRToff on April 18 that such
complaints are seasonal, peaking in the spring when
unresolved disputes over scarce arable land come to
the fore. This year, however, rather than simply
expressing such views privately, a number of Bamyan
Tajiks have traveled to Kabul to air their grievances.
es.
Fooladi noted that the Bamyan Tajiks had even met with
Speaker of Parliament Qanooni to complain about Tajik
treatment at the hands of local officials (almost
exclusively Hazara). Fooladi surmised that these
complaints are centered on Governor Sarabi.

Khalili Behind Effort to Undermine Governor?
--------------


3. (SBU) Surprisingly, Second Vice President Abdul
Karim Khalili (ethnic Hazara) appears to be the source
of support for these complaints. Fooladi confided
that Khalili had met with the Tajik agitators
earlier in the month to hear their complaints.
Fooladi went further, claiming that Khalili had
promised the Tajiks that he would support a Tajik as
Governor of Bamyan, should the current rumor campaign
succeed in removing Sarabi. Fooladi would not comment
whether the current rumor campaign prompted President
Karzais last minute request for a meeting with Gov.
Sarabi on April 16, but did admit that it likely
would be discussed.

.

Governor Sarabis Back Against the Wall
--------------


4. (SBU) Even before her first day on the job in
March 2005, Governor Sarabi had three strikes against
her, as a well-placed international source explained.
One, she is a woman, the only woman governor in the
country. Two, she is originally from Ghazni, and thus
not a true Hazara in some circles. Three, her
appointment took down someone well-connected to local
political machinery. (Note: Khalili reportedly is a
strong supporter of Aliyar -- both are from Yakawlang
district -- and opposed Sarabis appointment.)

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Fooladi said that President Karzai has offered Sarabi
an Ambassadorship as a graceful exit if and when she
chooses to exercise it, but that she had turned it
down. She wants to show her doubters that a woman
can succeed as governor in Afghanistan, he explained.

Re-Appointment of Dep. Chief of Police Boosts Khalili
-------------- --------------

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5. (SBU) The return of Abdul Rahman to his previous
position as Deputy Chief of Police does not appear to
help Sarabi shore up her position. Rahman, a close
friend of Aliyar and VP Khalili, reclaimed his
position from former Dep. Chief of Police Abdul Malik
on April 18. Maliks removal had been long forecast,
as MOI Embedded PRT Representative General Ali told
PRToff in December that Maliks role in corruption, as
well as his abuse of alcohol and minors, made him
unfit for his position.


6. (SBU) Rahmans return, however, was not expected.
We thought he and his corrupt friends were gone for
good, the head of the regional Afghan Independent
Human Rights Commission complained. Malik was bad,
but Rahman is not much better. (FYI: Rahman told us
he stepped down voluntarily to run for the Wolesi
Jirga. Rahman received a relatively large number of
votes, 5410, although not sufficient to claim one of
Bamyans four WJ seats. End FYI.) General Ali
ral Ali
expressed his disappointment that someone so corrupt
could get a second chance. (Note: Rahman was
implicated in a string of burglaries in the Bamyan
bazaar. His involvement in a diesel/petrol siphoning
ring that stole so much fuel that Rahman opened his
own service station in Kabul reportedly is what led
to his initial dismissal. End Note.)


7. (SBU) Many contacts interpreted Rahmans re-
appointment as a boost to Khalili, and a knock on
Sarabis efforts as governor. He (Rahman) will not
make it any easier for her (Sarabi),said a local
contractor. Perhaps Karzai is losing faith in her,
the head of the Shaidan District shura wondered. ANP
Colonel Timor Shah predicted that Sarabi would soon
move on: she has no friends left in Bamyan
(government); why would she stay?

Comment: Looking to Donors for a Boost
--------------


8. (SBU) Governor Sarabi has put herself in harms
way for her beliefs and ideas in the past, especially
pecially
during the Taliban era when she crossed the Afghan-
Pakistan border regularly at night to teach in
clandestine womens schools against Taliban edicts.
Her concern for Bamyans people (at least its Hazara
majority) appears genuine. It thus seems unlikely
that she would give up her position as governor
without a struggle, or at least an explicit request
from Karzai.


9. (SBU) Sarabis grace period as Bamyan Governor
appears to be over, however, especially now that VP
Khalili appears to be consolidating his ethnic power
base in the Hazarajat. Her isolation within the local
political scene may explain her full court press with
donors to commit to the ambitious but vague future

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development plan for Bamyan City. The US, which had
at various times committed to three large-scale
infrastructure projects for Bamyan (a police training
center, a courthouse, and a provincial administrative
building) remains a favorite target for her
infrastructure requests. Until these projects and
nd
others are built, Sarabi will have few examples to
which she can point as proof of her success in
garnering resources for Bamyans people. Sarabis
position thus may continue to weaken, an unfortunate
development for Afghanistans only woman governor.

NEUMANN
NN