KARZAI PROPOSES NEW CABINET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KABUL 001281

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TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM AF
SUBJECT: KARZAI PROPOSES NEW CABINET
KABUL 00001281 001.2 OF 004
Classified By: CHARGE D´AFFAIRES RICHARD NORLAND FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AN
D (D)


1. (U) SUMMARY. On March 22, President Karzai presented his
new Cabinet to Parliament for approval. The new Cabinet does
not represent a significant departure from the previous one.
The most important change was the replacement of Dr. Abdullah
as Foreign Minister with Karzai advisor Dr. Spanta. Other
key Ministers - including Minister of Defense Wardak,
Minister of Finance Ahadi, and acting Minister of Interior
Zarar - will remain in place pending approval by Parliament.
The new Ministers announced are largely unknown, both to
Afghans and the international community. Parliament will
begin the process of calling Ministers in for questioning on
Saturday, March 25. Parliamentary approval of the Cabinet
could take several weeks. END SUMMARY.

Who´s In
--------------


2. (U) New Ministers:
Minister of Foreign Affairs - Rangin Dadfar Spanta (current
Karzai advisor)
Minister of Commerce - Dr. Mohammad Haidar Reza (current
Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs)
Minister of Women - Dr. Suraya Rahim Sabrang (former Deputy
Minister in 2004)
Minister of Transport and Aviation - Gul Hussein Ahmad
Minister of Rural Development - Ehsan Zia (current Deputy
Minister)
Minister of Mines - Engineer Ibrahim Adel (current Deputy
Minister of Refugees - Ustad Akbar Akbar
Ministers Changing Portfolio:
Minister of Education - former Minister of Rural Development
Haneef Atmar
Minister of Disabled and Social Affairs - former Minister of
Education Noor Mohammad Qarqeen
Minister of Higher Education - former Minister of Refugees
Mohammad Azam Dadfar
Unchanged:
Acting Minister of Interior Zarar Ahmad Muqbal was nominated
Minister
Minister of Defense Rahim Wardak
Minister of Finance Anwar ul-Haq Ahadi
Minister of Energy Ismail Khan
Minister of Justice Sarwar Danesh
Minister of Counternarcotics Engineer Habibullah Qaderi
Minister of Economy Amin Farhang
Minister of Communication Amirzai Sangin
Minister of Urban Development Yusuf Pashtoon
Minister of Public Works Dr. Suhrab Ali Safari
Minister of Youth and Culture Dr. Makhdoom Raheem
Minister of Health Dr. Amin Fatemi
Minister of Religious Affairs Nematollah Shahrani
Minister of Tribal and Border Affairs Abdul Karim Brahawi
Minister of Agriculture Obaidullah Ramin


2. (C) The newly nominated Ministers are a group of relative
unknowns (see bio information and analysis beginning para 8),
a move likely made in an attempt to ease their confirmation
by Parliament. Initial reports indicate that the new group
is made of competent professionals, although their relative
youth and inexperience may hamper them politically. The
Ministers retained in their positions or moved to a new
Ministry include many who have a positive reputation with the
international community, such as Minister Atmar (widely
respected for his effective leadership at Rural Development).
The retaining of Zarar in MOI was significant, as his
position was sought by many. (Comment: Zarar has yet to
prove himself as a decisive Minister capable of tackling
tough issues, but Embassy engagement with him as Acting
Minister has found him to be generally forthcoming and
supportive.) President Karzai,s affirmation of Minister of
Finance Ahadi,s tenure as Finance Minister was widely
anticipated by GoA contacts and foreign advisors and is
favorable to U.S. and broad international donor community
interests. The retention of others, such as Minister Dadfar,
is more surprising, given reports of poor management and
accusations of corruption, and demonstrates that the list
ultimately reflects political realities and perceived loyalty
to Karzai rather than management skill. The new list leaves
only one true "warlord" - Ismail Khan - in the Cabinet.

Who´s Out
--------------


3. (U) Ministers removed:
Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah
Minister of Commerce Amin Arsala became "Senior Minister"
Minister of Transport Enayatullah Qasemi (US citizen, under
required age for Minister)
Minister of Women Massouda Jalal
Minister of Mines and Heavy Industry Engineer Mohammad Sediq
(US citizen)
Minister of Higher Education Sayed Amir Shah Hassanyar
Minister for Social and Labor Affairs Sayed Ekramuddin Masoumi
Minister of Youth Affairs Amena Afzali
Minister of Martyrs and Disabled Sidiqa Balkhi was named to
the Afghan Senate in December


4. (C) Ministers were removed - most voluntarily - for
several reasons, including shifting political alliances, the
consolidation of Ministries, and not meeting the basic
constitutional requirements for being Minister (either with
respect to age or having only Afghan citizenship). Foreign
Minister Abdullah and Karzai had been moving apart for some
time, but it is unclear if there was a final reason for his
removal. Abdullah was offered other Cabinet positions
(including Commerce) in place of MFA, but declined. He was
the most prominent Panjshiri in the Cabinet and his ouster
may have been the source of reports that VP Massoud
complained to Karzai that there were not enough Panjshiris in
the Cabinet. The "promotion" of Minister Arsala to Senior
Minister was a face-saving move. Arsala was widely disliked
in Parliament and an absentee Minster of Commerce (choosing
to remain in his former Vice Presidential suite in the Prime
Minister,s compound),making his confirmation unlikely.
Massouda Jalal failed to establish a domestic political base
either within the Presidency or other sources, and her
removal was widely expected.


5. (SBU) While there were reports for weeks that the number
of Ministries would be reduced, only two Ministries were
consolidated during this process -- the Ministry of Youth was
absorbed into the Ministry of Culture and the Ministry of
Disabled and Martyrs added to the Ministry of Social Affairs.
More ambitious streamlining plans were reportedly cut off
due to the political need to maintain positions for key
allies and ethnic balance. For the same reason, Parliament
is not expected to clamor for the consolidation of more
Ministries. Both of the eliminated Ministries were led by
women, leaving only one woman in the Cabinet.

Confirmation by Parliament
--------------


6. (SBU) Action on the Cabinet now moves to the lower house
of Parliament, the Wolesi Jirga (WJ). In order to expedite
the approval of the Cabinet, the WJ has decided to have each
Minister deliver a 20-minute speech to the entire house, then
answer one question from each of the 18 committees in the WJ.
The Wolesi Jirga will vote to confirm each Minister
individually by secret ballot. Parliament hopes to review
two or three Ministers a day, but given the slow pace of
previous activity, this is an ambitious plan. In any case,
the Cabinet review process could take several weeks to
complete.


7. (C) The reaction of Parliament to the new Cabinet list is
unclear. Parliament has been out of session for a week for
the Afghan New Year holiday, and members will not reconvene
before March 25. While most members of Parliament, including
very senior members, have stated publicly that they intend to
base decisions on the Ministers´ qualifications, not
ethnicity (for example, Rabbani told POLOFFs, "we are not
choosing a mullah or a tribal elder, we are choosing
Ministers"),how close they will hold to that line remains in
question. Speaker Qanooni, according to unconfirmed reports,
was displeased with the makeup of the Cabinet and unhappy
that he had not been consulted on its composition beforehand.
In addition, the two contested prior votes about the
confirmation of the Cabinet - whether they should be approved
individually or as a group, and whether votes on ministers
should be open or secret - both went against the position the
Karzai administration lobbied hard for. Each of the
established nominated Ministers has both friends and enemies
in Parliament. Whether MPs will seek to make an example of
certain Ministers to demonstrate their displeasure with the
Karzai administration or will not seek to make too many
changes in the interest of unity remains to be seen.

Brief Biographies of New Ministers
--------------


8. (U) Dr. Rangeen Dadfar Spanta - MFA
Dr. Spanta has been Presidential Advisor on International
Affairs since 2004. Originally from Herat, Dr. Spanta was a
professor at Kabul University before seeking asylum in
Germany at the beginning of the communist era. After working
as a professor at the University of Aachen, he participated
in the Bonn Agreement negotiations and later returned to
Afghanistan. Dr. Spanta speaks fluent German and modest
English.


9. (C) While POLOffs have found him a pleasant and competent
interlocutor, some within the international community have
begun to raise questions about how effective he will be as
Minister. With only average English, he has a tough act to
follow in succeeding the polished and media-savvy Abdullah,
and he may find managing the Ministry itself a challenge,
since the replacement of Abdullah came as a surprise to MFA
staff themselves. Dr. Spanta worked closely with Polcouns on
human rights and transitional justice issues and espoused
progressive views on those issues.


10. (SBU) Dr. Mohammad Haidar Reza - Minister of Commerce
Currently Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs for
Administration, Dr. Reza is known to the Embassy for his
participation in the GoA Budget Committee and his
organization of the MFA-hosted December 2005 Regional
Economic Cooperation Conference. A former AFS exchange
student in Kenosha, Wisconsin, Reza completed medical school
at Kabul University in the late 1970s. Following the Soviet
withdrawal in 1989, he served as the Swedish Committee
coordinator in northern Takhar province and later as the head
of the Afghan Red Crescent Society from 1995-96. After a
number of years in hiding following the Taliban,s rise to
power, and serving as Ahmad Shah Massoud´s personal
physician, Reza left Afghanistan to work with the ICRC in
Geneva, Iraq and Yugoslavia. He returned in February 2002 to
began work with the Foreign Ministry on budget, staffing and
logistics issues.


11. (C) Reza is considered competent, honest and
self-effacing and is not anticipated to face significant
parliamentary resistance to his appointment. He arrives at a
Commerce Ministry whose portfolio has been expanded to
include the "Industries" portion of the former Ministry of
Mines and Industries. This will give him a stake in the
politically sensitive state-owned enterprise privatization
debate. Donors concerned at the Commerce Ministry,s
manifest lack of capacity in dealing with its core
responsibilities of trade facilitation, standards promotion
and WTO accession, have long hoped for a more activist
Minister than Arsala and for a house cleaning of Deputy
Ministers (Zia and Sharifi) whose free-market credentials are
suspect and senior advisors (Hakiki) viewed as incompetent.
It remains to be seen whether Reza has the drive and
organizational instinct for the jugular needed to revive this
critical line economic Ministry.


12. (SBU) Dr. Soraya Rahim Sabrang - Minister of Women´s
Affairs
Dr. Sabrang was Deputy Minister of Women´s Affairs for
Professional Affairs (technical deputy) under Habiba Sorabi
(2003-2004). Dr. Sabrang is a medical doctor who graduated
from Kabul Medical University. She lived many years as a
refugee in Germany, and her family still lives there. After
leaving MOWA, she began working for the Afghan Independent
Human Rights Commission. Dr. Sabrang is viewed favorably by
the international community, who uniformly describe her as a
committed women´s activist.


13. (SBU) Gul Hussein Ahmad - Minister of Transport
Mr. Ahmad is currently the Afghan Consul General in Mumbai,
where he was well and favorably known to Polcouns (then the
US CG in Mumbai). Originally from Mazar-e Sharif, where he
was a teacher, Ahmad also worked in the Embassy in New Delhi.
He speaks comfortable English.


14. (SBU) Ehsan Zia - Minister of Rural Development
Mr. Zia, a Tajik from Kabul, has been Deputy Minister of
Programs at MRRD for the past few years. Prior to MRRD, Zia
worked for the Norwegian Committee in Peshawar, Pakistan. He
has Master´s Degree in Post-War Reconstruction from York
University in the UK. He is generally well-regarded and is
perceived as having been groomed for this position by
outgoing Minister Atmar.


15. (SBU) Engineer Ibrahim Adel - Minister of Mines
Engineer Adel, a Hazara, is the current Deputy Minister of
Mines. He is a long-term professional employee of the
Ministry, formerly managing mines in northern Afghanistan and
the Kabul region. He was educated under the Soviet system,
but was imprisoned by the Communists. Embassy Natural
Resources Advisor has known Adel since he was a student and
describes him as competent, not corrupt, and committed to
managing the Ministry effectively.


16. (SBU) Ustad Akbar Akbar - Minister of Refugees
Ustad Akbar, a Pashtun from Khost, was reportedly suggested
to Karzai for this position by Sayyaf. Post has received
contradictory information about his employment and education,
but Akbar was a refugee in Pakistan and his family still
lives there.
NORLAND