FORMER JERUSALEM PLC MEMBER ASSESSES HAMAS, ABU

C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 000903

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE, NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MUSTAFA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PBTS KWBG KPAL KDEM IS
SUBJECT: FORMER JERUSALEM PLC MEMBER ASSESSES HAMAS, ABU
MAZEN'S NEXT STEPS


Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, per reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. During a March 2 meeting with ConGen
Poloff, former Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) member
Ziad Abu Zayyad (Jerusalem, independent) provided his
assessment of the challenges confronting the Palestinian
Authority (PA) and the new PLC. On Hamas forming the next
Palestinian government, Abu Zayyad labeled the possibility of
Fatah participation in a National Unity Government (NUG) a
mistake, arguing that Hamas should be "put to the test" to
gauge their true positions. Abu Zayyad said that PA
President Abbas (Abu Mazen) was inclined to let Hamas take
over the PA, including control of the PA security services,
in order to test Hamas intentions and avoid potential charges
of interference if Hamas fails at the attempt. Abu Zayyad
described the incoming Hamas PLC members as inexperienced and
generally nave about the challenges that they would face
running the PA. On Fatah, Abu Zayyad said that the movement
lacked a "charismatic" leader to lead it out of its present
crisis. End summary.

Abu Zayyad: Put
Hamas to The Test
--------------


2. (C) Ziad Abu Zayyad, who failed in his bid for
re-election to the PLC in the January 25 elections, provided
ConGen Poloff an assessment of Hamas' efforts to form the
next Palestinian government. Abu Zayyad thought that Fatah
should not participate in a NUG with Hamas. Instead, Hamas
should be forced to stand alone in the government, which
would compel the movement to either adapt to existing
political realities or fail altogether. Hamas had committed
itself to a role in Palestinian politics once it chose to run
in the PLC elections. Therefore, it shouldn't be allowed to
skirt those responsibilities, or, use Fatah as political
cover in a NUG. In his estimation, Hamas was still acting as
if it was an opposition movement rather than the majority
faction in the PLC.


3. (C) Abu Zayyad outlined three possible courses of
action for a Hamas-led government, namely:

-- Hamas maintains a hard-line policy, including no change to
its charter calling for Israel's destruction. Abu Zayyad
thought that Hamas would nevertheless seek arrangements to
establish a long-term truce with Israel. Under this
scenario, Abu Zayyad thought that a hard-line government
would survive no longer than a few months to a year.

-- Hamas commits to change, albeit slowly. This scenario was
unlikely to produce positive responses from either Israel or
the international community.

-- Hamas changes its positions on Israel and negotiations.
Under this scenario, Israel would be compelled to respond
positively to Hamas overtures. Abu Zayyad thought that
chances were remote that Hamas would follow this scenario.

Hamas Showing its
Inexperience in the PLC
--------------


4. (C) Abu Zayyad described Hamas PLC members as
inexperienced and generally nave about the challenges facing
it in the Council. He criticized Hamas for selecting only
Hamas PLC members to leadership positions in the PLC. Some
of those positions should have been set aside for Fatah and
other factions in the Council, just as Fatah had done in the
previous Council. Abu Zayyad suggested that Hamas was
treating the Council as if it were another Hamas institution.

Abu Mazen Inclined to
Let Hamas Run the PA
--------------


5. (C) Abu Zayyad judged that the PA President was trying
to pressure Hamas in a positive way that avoids a
confrontation. Abu Mazen, who was sensitive to Palestinian
public opinion, is inclined to let Hamas fail on its own
without having Abu Mazen blamed for its failure. Abu Zayyad
expected Abu Mazen to give control of the security forces
over to Hamas. According to Abu Zayyad, Abu Mazen was
committed to his political program, as outlined in his
February 18 speech to the PLC. He estimated that Abu Mazen
would only call for new elections -- PLC and presidential --
if Hamas agreed that it can no longer govern.

Fatah Facing

Internal Problems
--------------


6. (C) Abu Zayyad said that Fatah's internal problems
stemmed in part from the absence of a "charismatic" leader
who could impose political order on the movement. Abu Mazen
lacks the personal traits to fill that role, he said. Senior
leaders in the Fatah Central Committee and in the
Revolutionary Council are also unwilling to relinquish power.
Abu Zayyad expected further postponements in the holding of
the Sixth Fatah Congress. Abu Zayyad described a contentious
relationship between Abu Mazen and Fatah's General Secretary
Farouq Qaddummi, who technically outranks Abu Mazen within
the Fatah leadership structure.

WALLES