PLC INDEPENDENTS WARN FINANCIAL PRESSURE COULD

C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 000818

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE; NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MUSTAFA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2016
TAGS: ASEC KPAL IS
SUBJECT: PLC INDEPENDENTS WARN FINANCIAL PRESSURE COULD
LEAD TO PA COLLAPSE

Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, per reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: PLC moderates Hanan Ashrawi (Third Way) and
Mustafa Barghouti (Independent Palestine) told NEA A/S Welch
during separate meetings on February 25 that international
financial pressure could lead to a collapse of the PA and a
breakdown in security. Ashrawi and Barghouti urged the US to
find ways to help meet the needs of the Palestinian people
and support civil society. A/S Welch warned that anyone who
participates in a HAMAS-led government would be tainted by
their association with the movement. Ashrawi said she and
fellow Third Way PLC member-elect Salam Fayyad planned to
remain in the opposition. Barghouti did not rule out joining
the government, but only as part of a grand coalition
including Fatah. END SUMMARY

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PA Could Collapse
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2. (C) Ashrawi and Barghouti both appeared surprised by A/S
Welch's description of the PA's dire financial straits and
the pending curtailment of budgetary support to a HAMAS-led
government. Ashrawi responded that the international
community must calibrate financial pressure very carefully to
avoid a complete collapse of the PA. Both leaders said a
HAMAS failure to pay PA salaries could lead to a collapse of
governmental authority. Ashrawi said such a scenario is in
"nobody's interest" and predicted the resulting
"multidimensional security problems" would not be limited to
the West Bank and Gaza saying, "the most attractive target
will be Israel." Ashrawi said the GOI decision not to
transfer further clearance revenues undermines Abu Mazen and
the Quartet's position that HAMAS should respect PA
agreements with Israel since the GOI is obligated to hand
Palestinian tax revenues over to the PA under the Paris
Protocol.


3. (C) Ashrawi argued that worsening financial conditions
could backfire and boost support for HAMAS saying, "When our
people are under pressure, they don't react rationally."
Barghouti struck a similar tone and argued that a collapse of
the PA's already limited ability to deliver social services
would only make more people dependent on HAMAS social
organizations, thus increasing support for the movement.

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US Should Support the
Palestinian People
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4. (C) Ashrawi and Barghouti said the US should look for
creative ways to continue support for the Palestinian people.
Barghouti argued the US should redirect assistance towards
grassroots NGOs and civil society organizations saying,
"You've given all your support to Fatah and the PA and gotten
no results." Ashrawi said the US should give precedence to
helping the needy and vulnerable population groups arguing
increased desperation would only worsen the political
situation. Both leaders cited UNRWA as a possible conduit
for USG assistance to Palestinians.

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Welch: Do Not Join the
HAMAS Government
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5. (C) A/S Welch explained that the US and the international
community would not work with anyone who participates in a
HAMAS-led government that fails to meet the Quartet's
requirements. He noted that isolation is the only way to
force HAMAS to face the consequences of its support for
terrorism and rejection of PA agreements. Ashrawi responded
that she and Salam Fayyad planned to remain in the opposition
and had made their position clear to the HAMAS leadership.
Barghouti did not respond directly, but suggested he would
join the government only if Fatah and others did as well. At
the close of the meeting, Barghouti said he was interested in
meeting with the Secretary when he visits the US in April.
"Assuming, of course, I can still get a visa," Barghouti
quipped.


6. (U) A/S Welch cleared this message.

WALLES