EREKAT TELLS CODEL KERRY TO EXPECT ELECTIONS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 005021

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE; NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WATERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2016
TAGS: KPAL KWBG PGOV PREL PTER IS
SUBJECT: EREKAT TELLS CODEL KERRY TO EXPECT ELECTIONS,
REQUESTS HELP

Classified By: Acting Principal Officer, Thomas M. Duffy, Reasons 1.4 (
b) and (d).


1. (C) Begin Summary. Noting that PA President Mahmoud
Abbas (Abu Mazen) is serious about calling early elections,
PLO Chief Negotiator Sa'eb Erekat told Senators Kerry and
Dodd in a December 21 meeting that Fatah needs internal party
reform, assistance to security forces, and the prospect of a
peace process in order to win the elections. Erekat said
that he is preparing a meeting between Abu Mazen and PM
Olmert, which he expects sooner rather than later. He said
productive Israeli-Palestinian engagement, possibly to
include a back channel, would be crucial for Abu Mazen to
beat Hamas in early elections. End Summary.

Winning Elections
--------------


2. (C) In a December 21 meeting with Senators Kerry and
Dodd, PLO Chief Negotiator Sa'eb Erekat said the call for
early elections is not a bluff, and he expects a presidential
decree setting the date for elections in a month or so and
elections by June. He said for Fatah to win the elections,
it must reform itself, adding that "with the current line up
of the Fatah Central Committee, we don't stand a chance."


3. (C) Erekat said that for Fatah to win, the Presidential
Guard (PG) must also be sufficiently equipped and salaried.
He noted that the forces loyal to Hamas receive significant
assistance from their supporters, including Qatar, while the
supporters of Fatah and Abu Mazen just "talk." He said if
Hamas senses weakness on our side "we're dead." He said he
thought the PG had acquitted itself well during the recent
clashes in Gaza, but if clashes had continued, they would
have run out of ammunition He praised the USSC, but urged
the Senators (as well as moderate Arab states) to provide the
necessary, additional funding. He said it would also help
Abu Mazen's electoral prospects if the U.S. and Europeans end
the current financial restrictions once Abu Mazen sets the
date for early elections. He said normalizing relations and
resuming previous levels and forms of international
assistance would be crucial for Fatah's candidacy. He said
assistance outside the security sector should be provided
openly and that he did not believe international assistance
to non-Hamas politicians to build schools, clinics, etc. for
their communities would backfire at the polls.


4. (C) Erekat said Abu Mazen must be able to show voters
that there is a political horizon. He said Abu Mazen can
triumph against Hamas in early elections, if he can
demonstrate a viable Israeli-Palestinian peace process and
concrete Israeli commitments to this process.

Abu Mazen-Olmert Meeting
--------------


5. (C) Erekat said he is working with PM Olmert's advisors
Turbowitz and Tourgeman to prepare an Olmert-Abbas meeting,
and he believes such a meeting will take place "sooner than
expected." He said such a meeting would be crucial for
resuming the peace process and would allow Abu Mazen to
assess Olmert's thinking, including possible reactions to
recent proposals from King Abdullah of Jordan. Erekat added
that if Abu Mazen asks for a back channel, the GoI should
agree.


6. (U) Codel Kerry did not have an opportunity to clear this
cable.
DUFFY