Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06JERUSALEM5007
2006-12-21 05:47:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Jerusalem
Cable title:  

CENTRAL ELECTION COMMISSION: PROSPECT OF EARLY

Tags:  KPAL KWBG PGOV PREL PTER IS 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0718
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHJM #5007/01 3550547
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 210547Z DEC 06
FM AMCONSUL JERUSALEM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6108
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JERUSALEM 005007 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE; NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WATERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2016
TAGS: KPAL KWBG PGOV PREL PTER IS
SUBJECT: CENTRAL ELECTION COMMISSION: PROSPECT OF EARLY
ELECTIONS

REF: JERUSALEM 4953

Classified By: Acting Principal Officer Thomas M. Duffy, Reasons 1.4 (b
) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JERUSALEM 005007

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE; NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WATERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2016
TAGS: KPAL KWBG PGOV PREL PTER IS
SUBJECT: CENTRAL ELECTION COMMISSION: PROSPECT OF EARLY
ELECTIONS

REF: JERUSALEM 4953

Classified By: Acting Principal Officer Thomas M. Duffy, Reasons 1.4 (b
) and (d).


1. (C) Begin Summary. In a December 20 meeting with
PolChief, the Palestinian Central Elections Commission (CEC)
Chief Electoral Officer Hisham Kuhail said he thinks PA
President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) is using consultations
with the CEC on possible early elections to pressure Hamas
and that Hamas has lashed out at the CEC in response to
perceived CEC loyalty to Abu Mazen. Kuhail said early
elections will require Hamas acquiescence, since if Hamas
blocks the elections, the security and practical problems
will be severe. He said that the CEC is developing a
scenario and requirements list for possible early elections
and estimates the cost of the elections would be 6-8 million
USD. He said the CEC will suspend the voter registration
planned for January to avoid accusations that it is other
than independent. He anticipates low voter turn out in the
event of early elections. In a December 19 meeting, IFES
representative Richard Atwood similarly said early elections
will require Hamas concurrence, but that voter turnout will
likely be low.

Possible Early Elections
--------------


2. (C) Hisham Kuhail, the Chief Electoral Officer of the
Palestinian Central Elections Commission (CEC) told PolChief
in a December 20 meeting that the CEC was concerned by PA
President Mahmoud Abbas' (Abu Mazen) direct, public reference
to his consultations with the CEC in his December 16 speech.
Kuhail said the CEC "feels used" and believes that Abu Mazen
is consulting with the CEC primarily to exert political
pressure on Hamas. He said Hamas is angered by what it
perceives as CEC loyalty to Abu Mazen and noted that the
Acting Speaker of the PLC Ahmed Bakkar had written to the CEC
to complain. Noting Hamas accusations that early elections
are unconstitutional, Kuhail said the CEC would not address
this question. Any legal challenge by Hamas to early

elections is the purview of the judiciary.


3. (C) Kuhail expressed concerns about the security context
in which early elections take place and said he thought that
elections would, in fact, be difficult with the current
levels of violence. He said Abu Mazen cannot currently
secure voter registration and polling sites (which are in
schools),especially in Gaza. Kuhail said credible early
elections will require Hamas concurrence and a national
consensus on the elections. Thus far, Hamas has said
publicly that it will protest early elections, but Kuhail
said it is still unclear whether Hamas is "bluffing" and
intends to participate in elections.


4. (C) Kuhail said the CEC is proceeding on the basis that
there will be early elections and is developing a scenario
and general operational requirements. He noted that this
preparation is being done quietly and discreetly by a few key
CEC staff with experience in the last two national electoral
events, and that based on these events, they estimate a 6-8
million USD cost for the elections. Noting that according to
the electoral law, elections should occur within ninety days
of a presidential decree calling the elections, and the voter
list must be published sixty days before the elections,
Kuhail described the first of the three months as the "most
dangerous," since it includes five days of voter registration
and a period of challenges to the voter list. He added that
early elections could be impacted by a new elections law, but
he suggested that the Hamas-dominated PLC is unlikely to
enact the legislation. There is a draft law that would
change the Palestinian election system to a 100% proportional
representation system in a single, national district. He
noted that if passed, this new electoral law would likely
delay elections, but would also mean an easier system to
manage.

Voter Registration and Participation
--------------


5. (C) Per reftel, the CEC had intended to update its voter
registration lists in January. Kuhail said that exercise
will be suspended, since neither the public nor Hamas will
believe the registration is an apolitical activity. He said
they will instead link the registration to the call for early
elections and assign political motives to the CEC.


JERUSALEM 00005007 002 OF 002



6. (C) Kuhail said he anticipates "very low" voter turn out
in the case of early elections. He said many people are
frustrated with Fatah and the political picture and do not
feel secure, so will not go to the polls. Kuhail said many
of the votes for Hamas in the January 2006 PLC elections were
protest votes, and that voters in early elections now would
likely protest both Fatah and Hamas and, therefore, not vote.


IFES: Similar Views
--------------


7. (C) In a December 19 meeting, IFES representative Richard
Atwood echoed some of Kuhail's points. He said he thought it
would be impossible to hold elections without Hamas
agreement, because the Ministries of Education and Interior
would not make their facilities or personnel available, and
because there would likely be a high level of violence.
Atwood also thought voter turnout would be very low in the
case of early elections and pointed to potential legitimacy
problems that could entail.







DUFFY