EREKAT OUTLINES NEXT STEPS TO CODEL SHAYS

C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 003804

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE, NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WATERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/23/2016
TAGS: PREL KPAL KWBG PHUM IS
SUBJECT: EREKAT OUTLINES NEXT STEPS TO CODEL SHAYS


Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, per reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. During an August 19 meeting in Jericho,
PLO Chief Negotiator Sa'eb Erekat told Codel Shays that the
conflict in Lebanon resulted in a defeat for political
moderation. Erekat maintained that extremist forces such as
Hamas and Hezbollah have gained as a result of the violence,
but he emphasized that most Palestinians remain committed to
peace with Israel. Erekat argued that Hamas has shown itself
incapable of governing, but Fatah has failed to institute
necessary internal reforms to challenge Hamas successfully in
future elections. Erekat criticized Israel's detention of
Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) and Hamas ministers,
charging that the arrests have deflected public criticism
away from Hamas. Erekat indicated that President Abbas' (Abu
Mazen) talks with the Hamas leadership in Gaza are designed
to reach consensus on a new government based on the Quartet
conditions, end violence including the launching of Qassam
rockets into Israel, and secure the release of the kidnapped
IDF soldier in Gaza. Erekat suggested a meeting between Abu
Mazen and Israeli PM Olmert might be possible within the
coming weeks. End summary.


2. (C) U.S House Representatives Christopher Shays, Bob
Inglis, Brian Higgins, and Al Green met August 19 with PLO
Chief Negotiator Sa'eb Erekat in Jericho. Professional staff
members Nicholas Palarino, Robert Kelley, and Jeffrey Baran,
DOD military aide Major Carolyn Walford, and ConGen DPO and
Poloff (notetaker) also participated in the meeting.

Erekat: Moderate Voices on the
Defensive After Lebanon Fiasco
--------------


3. (C) Erekat told Codel Shays that the fallout from the
Israeli-Hezbollah war in Lebanon has resulted in the defeat
of moderates. Pro-peace advocates are facing significant
challenges in the aftermath of the hostilities, Erekat said.
Erekat expressed concern that a more radicalized Islamic
element may emerge from the conflict, similar to the
emergence of Hezbollah following the Israeli invasion of
Lebanon in 1982 and the creation of Hamas in 1987 at the
start of the first Intifadah. Erekat advised against
assuming that Hezbollah could be removed from southern
Lebanon, as the organization is deeply rooted in the social,
economic, and political fabric of the country.


4. (C) Erekat said that for both Palestinians and
Israelis, a peace agreement requires a two-state solution, as
previously outlined by President Bush and based on the
Clinton parameters. The only alternative is a "one-state"
solution, and any discussion of a bi-national state would
provoke accusations that Palestinians seek to undermine
Israel's Jewish majority. He said that absent any serious
negotiations, Palestinians bear the brunt of ongoing IDF
operations in the West Bank and Gaza. Nonetheless, Erekat
indicated that some 70 percent of Palestinians support a
peace agreement with Israel.

Hamas Government Failing, But
Fatah Still Disorganized
--------------


5. (C) While the Hamas-led PA has failed to prove that it
can govern, Erekat noted that Fatah remains woefully unable
to pose an effective electoral challenge to Hamas. Hamas has
succeeded in portraying Fatah as corrupt, Erekat said, while
also claiming that Israeli withdrawals in Gaza and the
northern West Bank last year were a result of "resistance"
organizations like Hamas rather than the product of
negotiations.


6. (C) Erekat criticized Israel's detention of Hamas
cabinet ministers and PLC members, noting that none of those
arrested were involved in the kidnapping of the IDF soldier
Gilad Shalit. Such tactics only increased popular support
for Hamas, Erekat said. The arrests were particularly
unfortunate as they have come in the midst of growing public
demonstrations against the Hamas-led ministries for their
failure to provide salaries. Erekat noted that the
Palestinian teacher unions are planning to hold a large
strike against the Ministry of Education on August 25, but
the August 19 Israeli arrest of Education Minster and Deputy
PM Nasser Eddin al-Sha'er would propel al-Sha'er to the
status of "hero," thereby diminishing the criticism directed
against Hamas.

Abu Mazen's Talks With Hamas
Set Conditions For New Government
--------------


7. (C) Erekat said that Abu Mazen has put forth conditions
necessary to form a national unity government in discussions
with the Hamas leadership in Gaza. Abu Mazen has informed
Hamas that a new government must endorse the Quartet
conditions calling for recognition of Israel, ending
violence, and accepting previous PLO and international
agreements. Erekat said that Abu Mazen would report any
progress in these discussions to the USG and others to ensure
full international support. Erekat also said that Abu Mazen
had also emphasized the release of Gilad Shalit in talks with
Hamas.


8. (C) Erekat noted ongoing efforts to halt Qassam rocket
fire from Gaza into Israel. Erekat said that he would
consult with the Israelis once he has the agreement of all
Palestinian factions. He noted that Abu Mazen's office is
coordinating with the United States Security Coordinator
(USSC) to upgrade the Presidential Guard (PG) to undertake
this type of mission and that the PG has already proven its
capabilities at the Rafah crossing.

Abu Mazen/Olmert Meeting?
--------------


9. (C) Erekat suggested a meeting might be possible
between Abu Mazen and Israeli PM Olmert within the coming
weeks. He hoped the meeting would address the release of
Palestinian prisoners, which Abu Mazen and PM Olmert had
briefly discussed last June in Jordan.


10. (U) Codel Shays did not have an opportunity to clear
this cable prior to their departure.

WALLES