PALESTINIAN LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS: ELECTION DAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 000349

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE, NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MUSTAFA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2016
TAGS: ASEC IS KDEM KPAL KWBG PBTS PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: PALESTINIAN LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS: ELECTION DAY
SITREP #6 AS OF 12:15 AM, JANUARY 26 2006

REF: A. JERUSALEM 00338


B. JERUSALEM 00324


1. (C) SUMMARY: As of midnight on Election Day, the Central
Elections Commission (CEC) was counting votes with
preliminary results not expected until later on January 26.
Polls in Jerusalem closed at 2100L, two hours after the West
Bank and Gaza Strip. The election was notably free of
serious voting irregularities or substantial Election Day
violence. PLC candidate Muhammad Dahlan projected to Consul
General during a January 25 telcon that Fatah would gain at
least 60 seats as a result of the elections. ConGen Poloffs
have received indications from contacts working at the
Central Elections Commission (CEC) and vote counting centers,
indicating that exit polls released by Birzeit University's
Development Studies Center and Khalil Shikaki's Palestinian
Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) may have
overstated Fatah's total PLC seats. Gunfire was reported
sporadically in the proximity of vote counting centers in
Nablus, the Balata Refugee Camp and Ramallah. Fatah
activists conducted two unsuccessful attacks on vote counting
centers in Nilin village and Jalazoun Camp, both located
outside Ramallah. END SUMMARY

Elections Conducted without
Widespread Irregularities, Violence
--------------


2. (C) As of midnight, two of the firm points are high
election turnout (78 percent rather than the 81 percent
reported in sitrep 5) and widespread recognition that the
election was free of voting irregularities or substantial
violence. The final results will be difficult to challenge.

Dahlan Claims Strong
Fatah Showing
--------------


3. (C) Muhammad Dahlan, Fatah PLC candidate from Khan
Yunis, estimated to Consul General late on January 25 that,
according to his information, Fatah would win more than 60
seats in the PLC elections, followed by Hamas with 50 to 55
seats, the PFLP with 4 to 5 seats, with Mustafa Barghouthi,s
&Independent Palestine8 and &Third Way8 winning a
combined four to six seats. In the Gaza district races,
Dahlan estimated that Fatah would win all three seats in
Rafah and four of five seats in Khan Yunis, one seat in Deir
al-Balah, two in North Gaza, but none of the eight seats in
Gaza City. He also indicated a strong Fatah showing in the
West Bank, with significant victories in Jenin, Nablus,
Jerusalem, and Hebron. (Comment: With no preliminary results
yet posted by the CEC, Dahlan did not explain how he had
arrived at these estimates. Palestinian contacts operating
at CEC headquarters have provided a more sobering assessment
of Fatah,s performance. End comment.)

Pollsters Race to
Publish Products
--------------


4. (C) Arab and Western media outlets quickly rushed to
publish the results of exit polls conducted by Birzeit
University and Khalil Shikaki. ConGen Poloffs have received
reports from CEC officials and contacts involved in the vote
count at the district level, suggesting exit polls may have
overestimated Fatah's PLC seat tally. Final results will
likely not be available until the afternoon of January 26.

Updated Voter
Turnout Results
--------------


5. (C) According to CEC statistics, overall turnout
reached 77.69 percent of registered voters. In the Gaza
Strip, Rafah posted the highest percentage turnout at 89
percent, with Tubas district in the West Bank reporting a
turnout of 84 percent. Competing exit polls from Birzeit and
Khalil Shikaki,s Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey
Research suggested a disparity in polling results, with
Birzeit reporting 63 seats for Fatah and 58 for Hamas, while
Shikaki,s polling indicating 58 seats for Fatah and 53 seats
for Hamas.

Post-Election
Violence Minimal
--------------


6. (C) Celebratory and protest gunfire was reported in the
proximity of polling centers in Nablus, Balata Refugee Camp,

and Ramallah. No incidents of shooting directed at polling
centers had been reported by midnight. Disgruntled Fatah
activists wielding rocks and empty bottles attacked vote
counting centers in Nilin village and Jalazoun Camp, both
located outside Ramallah. PASF personnel and local officials
reportedly fended off these attacks without further incident.


7. (U) ConGen's next sitrep will follow at 1200L on January

26.

WALLES