SUBJECT: PALESTINIAN LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 000240

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE; NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MUSTAFA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2015
TAGS: PREL KWBG PGOV PINS PTER KPAL IS PBTS KDEM
SUBJECT: SUBJECT: PALESTINIAN LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL ELECTIONS
SITREP #8: JANUARY 19, 2006

REF: JERUSALEM 00238

Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, per reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. Fatah and Hamas candidates in Gaza signed
an agreement pledging to refrain from displaying weaponry and
abide by the democratic process. Israeli and Palestinian
negotiators met January 18 for additional discussions
regarding Jerusalem voting. During a January 18 meeting at
CEC headquarters in Ramallah, CEC Chairman Dr. Hana Nasir
indicated that the Ministry of Interior had provided the CEC
the PASF,s security plan for the January 25 PLC elections.
Fatah candidates have stepped up their campaign activities in
the West Bank. A total of 45 Fatah independent candidates
have withdrawn from the district races. Hamas officials
published accusations claiming that PLC candidate Muhammad
Dahlan is corrupt and collaborates with Israeli security
officials. END SUMMARY.

Election Day Security
--------------


2. (C) During a January 18 meeting at CEC headquarters in
Ramallah with Consul General, CEC Chairman Dr. Hana Nasir
indicated that the Ministry of Interior had provided the CEC
the PASF,s security plan for the January 25 PLC elections
(details of plan in reftel). Nasir expressed concern,
however, about the effectiveness of the PASF on Election Day.

He worried in particular about a breakdown in communication
between the security personnel in the field and their
commanders. The Consul General responded that USG officials
relayed messages to Abu Mazen, Nasir Yusif and all security
chiefs that everything must be done to secure the elections.
Nasir urged that this message be repeated to the PA through
Election Day.


3. (C) Nasir also indicated that the CEC was requesting that
the PA move PASF voting forward one day to begin on January
21, in order to allow for PASF enough time to return to their
posts on January 24. CEC Chief Electoral Officer Ammar Dweik
said the GOI needed to facilitate the movement of the PASF in
the West Bank. Dweik indicated that there were several
hundred West Bank PASF personnel who should return to the
Gaza Strip to vote. The Consul General encouraged Dweik to
coordinate that movement of those required to vote in Gaza.

Progress on Jerusalem
Voting Modalities
--------------


4. (C) Israeli and Palestinian negotiators met January 18 for
additional discussions regarding Jerusalem voting. According
to ConGen contacts, both sides have reached consensus on most
of the modalities for voting in six East Jerusalem post
offices. According to the agreed arrangements, the CEC will
open three offices in East Jerusalem to issue 6,000
&tickets8 to potential voters using the same eligibility
standards required of East Jerusalem residents who would
otherwise vote outside the municipal boundaries of the city.
The tickets would be color-coded for one of the six post
offices. On Election Day, the voter will present the ticket
at the post office, which will then be able to match the
ticket to information provided by the CEC. Indelible ink
placed on the finger of each voter to prevent double voting.
In addition, Israel agreed to return all material.


5. (C) Israel has also agreed to refrain from entering the
three CEC offices, except in an emergency. The offices
distributing the tickets will display no PA or CEC signs.
The Israeli representatives agreed to provide answers to
additional requests, including a letter of assurance that
there would be no retribution against voters and a CEC
request that postal clerks comply with PA law and stamp
ballots when issued. (Note: Neither side raised the issue of
Hamas participation. Dr. Hana Nasir told the Consul General
that the CEC would not make an issue of it, but warned that
he would cancel the PLC elections if Israel attempted to
tamper with the ballots on Election Day. End note.

Fatah and Hamas Agree not to
Display Weapons
--------------


6. (C) Fatah and Hamas agreed to refrain from displaying
weapons on Election Day. PLC candidates Said Siyam (Hamas)
and Samir Mashhari (Fatah) signed a document on January 18 in
Gaza stipulating that both sides will abide by the Elections
Law, compete democratically and respect the results. The
document also states that the two sides will cooperate with

the PASF to secure polling stations and form joint committees
to oversee the election process.

Fatah Increasing
Campaign Activity
--------------


7. (C) Fatah has noticeably increased campaign activities
ahead of the January 25 PLC elections. Fatah activists in
the West Bank and Gaza have been reaching out to
disillusioned Fatah members and the general public through
text messaging and other media communications. In the
northern West Bank districts of Jenin and Tulkarem, Fatah
activists are conducting a door-to-door mobilization
campaign. Al-Aqsa Brigades in Nablus released a statement
backing down on its threat to attack polling stations in the
city. Senior PA security officials and Fatah leaders have
been in contact with potentially problematic elements of
al-Aqsa Brigades in various areas to ensure security on
Election Day.

Fatah Independent Candidates
Withdrawal From District Races
--------------


8. (C) Salah Shadid, a Brigadier General in the PA General
Intelligence, pulled out of the Tulkarem district race. Dr.
'Abd al-Rahman al-Turk, a Fatah independent candidate and
lecturer at al-Najah university pulled out from the race in
Salfit district race. A total of 45 Fatah independents have
pulled out of the district races, bettering Fatah's chances
in district races.

Hamas and Dahlan
Trade Insults
--------------


9. (C) Hamas has established a link on its website attacking
PLC candidate Muhammad Dahlan. The link displays pictures of
Dahlan with Israeli officials and implies that he is an
Israeli security agent. The link also contains articles
accusing Dahlan of assisting in the IDF missile strike that
killed 'Abd al-Aziz Rantisi in Gaza two years ago, questions
the origins of Dahlan's extensive wealth and alleges that
Dahlan led a mutiny against Arafat in 2004. Dahlan has
attacked Hamas repeatedly during election speeches describing
Hamas as a force of darkness lacking a coherent vision for
the Palestinian national cause.

PFLP Activists Arrested in
East Jerusalem
--------------


10. (C) The Israeli police arrested seven PFLP activists on
January 18, including one PLC candidate, at a hotel in East
Jerusalem. Some of the activists, who were arrested while
conducting a rally at al-Dar hotel, resisted the police.
Police officials said that they would continue to prevent any
attempt to halt any campaigning by PFLP in the city. Among
those arrested were: 'Abd al-Latif Ghaith, Hani Issawi-
independent supported by DFLP, Maha Nassar on the PFLP
national list and Fadwa Khader a People Party ) running as
independent in East Jerusalem district.

Fatah Ahead of
Hamas in Polls
--------------


11. (C) A poll published by the Palestinian Center for Public
Opinion on January 18 said that 36 percent of eligible voters
intend to vote for the Fatah national list and 27 percent
will vote for Hamas in the upcoming Palestinian parliament
elections. The poll also showed that approximately 80
percent of Palestinians favor resuming negotiations with
Israel.

Press Coverage
--------------

-- Al-Quds provided coverage of U.S. Senator John Kerry,s
visit to Jericho, including a photograph of the Senator with
PLO Chief Negotiator Sa,eb Erakat as he spoke to the press
following their meeting. Kerry spoke about the upcoming
legislative elections.

Op-eds:

-- Ya,qoub Al-Atrash commented in Al-Quds that foreign
intervention in the PLC elections was unacceptable, noting in

particular that "U.S. Secretary of State Rice,s recent
obligation that Palestinian candidates give up weapons and
recognize Israel...seem very awkward.8

-- Hasan Asfour wrote in Al-Ayyam that he was awaiting
January 26 for the results of the PLC elections, adding that
&admitting political facts is not a mishap or a taboo; on
the contrary, overlooking the reality can be a political
mistake.8 Asfour maintained that the next legislative
council, through its role and action, will be a continuity to
the first council, since the first council was the outcome of
the Oslo Agreement.

-- Al-Quds ran a political cartoon showing a man about to
cast his vote in a balloting box with his face directed
toward a cracked ceiling with the words: &Under the Oslo
ceiling8 written underneath it.

-- Al-Quds carried a front-page story was a denial by the
"Islamic Jihad Movement in Palestine" that any of its
political or military members are running for legislative
elections. Nafeth Azzam, an active Islamic Jihad leader,
re-affirmed the movement,s clear position of completely
rejecting the legislative elections and requiring all Islamic
Jihad affiliated groups and institutions to boycott them.

-- Al-Quds also reported that during a meeting organized by
the &Coalition for Jerusalem8 candidates on various
electoral lists asked the PA and Palestinian negotiators to
clarify the electoral procedures in Jerusalem.

Op-eds:

-- In its main editorial, Al-Quds opined that the next
Palestinian cabinet should primarily consist of youth, for
they are better experienced and more capable to lead.

-- Khalid Al-Huroub commented in al-Quds that the forthcoming
elections would be an element in the promotion of Palestinian
legitimacy and a direct factor in stopping the ongoing state
of anarchy in the Palestinian areas.

-- Veteran columnist Talal Okal commented in al-Ayyam that
over 90 percent of the new PLC will be controlled by partisan
politics.

-- Mohammad Yaghi maintained in al-Ayyam that Hamas,
political platform does not greatly differ from that of
Fatah, including the removal of the &destruction of Israel8
objective from its electoral campaign.

-- Al-Hayat al-Jadida,s editor in-chief, Hafez Barghouthi,
wrote that the next PLC will better reflect &real
parliamentary life8 and will be a much better
counter-balance to the executive branch.

WALLES