Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06JERUSALEM2391
2006-06-13 07:37:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Consulate Jerusalem
Cable title:  

PA ADVISOR AKRAM HANIYYAH ON POLITICAL STATE OF

Tags:  KPAL KWBG PREL IS 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0001
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHJM #2391 1640737
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 130737Z JUN 06
FM AMCONSUL JERUSALEM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2725
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 002391 

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE; NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/LOGERFO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2016
TAGS: KPAL KWBG PREL IS
SUBJECT: PA ADVISOR AKRAM HANIYYAH ON POLITICAL STATE OF
PLAY

REF: JERUSALEM 02323

Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, per reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 002391

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE; NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/LOGERFO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2016
TAGS: KPAL KWBG PREL IS
SUBJECT: PA ADVISOR AKRAM HANIYYAH ON POLITICAL STATE OF
PLAY

REF: JERUSALEM 02323

Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, per reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: Senior PA Advisor and "al-Ayyam" editor
Akram Haniyyah told visiting NEA A/S Welch, the Consul
General, and NSC/IPA LoGerfo on June 7 that President Abbas
(Abu Mazen) is in a strong political position following his
decision to call for a referendum on the prisoners'
initiative. Haniyyah said the political momentum is with Abu
Mazen and described the HAMAS-led government as deeply
isolated, fractured, and losing popular support. Haniyyah
observed, however, that HAMAS has a number of strategies
available to it to disrupt the referendum, including
escalating violence. END SUMMARY.

--------------
Haniyyah: Political Momentum
Is With Abu Mazen
--------------


2. (C/NF) Since the PA president's May 25 address to the
initial national dialogue meeting, Haniyyah said HAMAS has
been "on the defensive" and "political momentum" has been
with Abu Mazen. Haniyyah described Abu Mazen as confident
and determined to use the prisoners, initiative to bring
about a new government that the international community can
work with.


3. (C/NF) Haniyyah noted that the national dialogue and
discussions over the prisoners' initiative had revealed a
variety of fissures within HAMAS. These divisions have
included disputes between West Bank and Gaza leaders; between
internal and Damascus-based leaders; and between prisoners
and the "outside" members. Haniyyah commented that HAMAS'
inability to respond pragmatically to Abu Mazen's initiative,
in spite of the internal leadership's desire to save the
government, showed that the Damascus leadership is still
making decisions for the movement. Haniyyah opined that the
collapse of the perception of "monolithic unity" within HAMAS
is a major victory. As Haniyyah put it, "We succeeded in
destroying the nobility of HAMAS."

--------------
Declining Support
For HAMAS
--------------


4. (C/NF) Popular support for HAMAS is also waning, according
to Haniyyah. He noted the recent Birzeit University poll
that showed a substantial dip in public support for HAMAS
since the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) elections
(reftel). Haniyyah recounted that several of his PA
interlocutors had commented on the government's incompetence.
The government is "proving incapable of governing and people
are saying in loud voices: 'Pay us now!'" Within the
discourse of political Islam, Haniyyah detected heightening
disenchantment with HAMAS among Muslim Brotherhood
organizations as a result of the movement's failure at
governing.

--------------
Abu Mazen Must Stay
The Course
--------------


5. (C/NF) The challenge for Abu Mazen, said Haniyyah, will be
finding a way to keep HAMAS from "changing the course of
events." Haniyyah discounted the possibility that HAMAS
would offer an acceptable compromise on the prisoners'
initiative, saying, "Decisions for HAMAS are still being made
in Damascus." Haniyyah thought that HAMAS would fight to
retain control of the government.


6. (C/NF) Hanniyah suggested HAMAS could try to sabotage the
referendum through a variety of political means: boycotting
the vote, tying up the political process in the courts, or
bringing the referendum to the Palestinian Legislative
Council (PLC) for consideration. (NOTE: The PA Basic Law is
silent on the issue of whether the President can call a
national referendum through a decree. END NOTE.)
Alternatively, HAMAS could resort to violence, particularly
in Gaza. Examining this possibility, Haniyyah commented
grimly, "Of course, we have all the elements for a civil war."


7. (U) This cable was cleared by NEA A/S Welch.

WALLES