Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06JERUSALEM2135
2006-05-25 17:00:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Jerusalem
Cable title:  

ABBAS SETS DEADLINE FOR "NATIONAL DIALOGUE"

Tags:  PREL PGOV KWBG KPAL KDEM IS 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0001
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHJM #2135/01 1451700
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 251700Z MAY 06
FM AMCONSUL JERUSALEM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2389
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 002135 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE, NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/LOGERFO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KWBG KPAL KDEM IS
SUBJECT: ABBAS SETS DEADLINE FOR "NATIONAL DIALOGUE"

REF: JERUSALEM 01917

Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, per reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 002135

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE, NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/LOGERFO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KWBG KPAL KDEM IS
SUBJECT: ABBAS SETS DEADLINE FOR "NATIONAL DIALOGUE"

REF: JERUSALEM 01917

Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, per reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. Representatives from Fatah, Hamas, other
Palestinian factions, and civil society convened May 25 in
Ramallah and Gaza City for a two-day session of "National
Dialogue." In his speech before conference delegates in
Ramallah, Palestinian President Abbas (Abu Mazen) set a
10-day deadline, commencing May 26, for participants to reach
consensus on the basis of the "National Accord Document"
drafted by Palestinian prisoners (reftel). Abbas warned
conferees that he would refer the prisoners' document to a
Palestinian national referendum within 40 days if the 10-day
deadline expires without agreement. ConGen Palestinian
contacts praised Abbas' speech and his decision to go forward
with a possible referendum, noting that the threat alone
would put considerable pressure on Hamas. End summary.

"National Dialogue" Convenes
With Abbas Threat of Referendum
--------------


2. (C) The "National Dialogue" convened May 25 with calls
from PA and PLO officials, including Hamas PM Isma'il
Haniyyah and PLC Speaker Aziz Dweik for "national unity." In
his address, Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazen)
imposed a 10-day deadline, commencing May 26, for delegates
to accept the terms put forward in the "National Accord
Document" signed by Palestinian prisoners earlier this month.
Abbas told attendees that, in the face of the dangerous
situation facing Palestinians, he could not allow the
"dialogue" to continue indefinitely. Describing the
Palestinian prisoners as serving the "highest" national
interests, Abbas said that he would initiate a national
referendum in 40 days if participants could not agree reach
agreement on the basis of the prisoners' document within 10
days.


3. (C) Abbas covered a number of issues in his speech,
including:

-- Intra-Palestinian Strife: Abbas applauded PM Haniyyah's
earlier speech in which the Hamas PM said that his government

would work to protect national unity and ease tension by
avoiding intra-Palestinian bloodshed.

-- Permanent Status Issues: Abbas outlined his support for
the creation of a Palestinian state within 1967 borders,
support for the Roadmap, resolution to the refugees issue on
the basis of UN Resolution 194, and the sanctity of previous
international resolutions.

-- PLO: Abbas emphasized the primacy of the PLO as the sole
legitimate representative of the Palestinian people, noting
in particular the February 2005 Cairo Understandings
adherence to this principle. He called for restructuring the
PLO to include the participation of Hamas and Palestinian
Islamic Jihad.

Fayyad/Erekat: National Dialogue
Represents Strong First Step
--------------


4. (C) In comments to the Consul General, Salam Fayyad May
25 described the "National Dialogue" as the start of a
political process. He expressed some reservations with parts
of the prisoners' document, in particular, the absence of a
strong statement against violence. Fayyad also conceded that
the prisoners' document as it currently stands does not meet
the terms put forth by the Quartet, but argued that the
document does refer to "a strong national government that
enjoys . . . international support." Fayyad opined that
Hamas is not in favor of the prisoners' initiative and would
therefore attempt to drag out the discussions and avoid
making any concessions. Fayyad added that he would speak
before the "National Dialogue" conference and express his
support for President Abbas.


5. (C) PLO Chief Negotiator Sa'eb Erekat May 25 told the
Consul General that the prisoners' initiative provided the
vehicle to force the creation of a new government that would
support the Quartet requirements. He described the "National
Dialogue" as a "process" to isolate Hamas. Erekat described
Abbas' speech as effective, noting that many in the audience
were surprised by Abbas' 10-day deadline to reach consensus
on the prisoners' document.

Fatah Officials Optimistic
--------------


6. (C) Reacting to Abbas' "National Dialogue" speech,
Fatah Tanzim leader Husayn al-Shaykh May 25 told POL FSN
Specialist that he supported Abbas' call for a national
referendum and expected that the Palestinian public would
support the initiative by a wide margin. Al-Shaykh thought
that Hamas, despite its reservations with the document, would
be under pressure to endorse it out of fear of being
perceived as opposing the will of the Palestinian prisoners.
He noted that Shaykh 'Abd al-Khaliq al-Natshah, a member of
the Hamas political bureau, had already endorsed the document
from Israeli prison along with Fatah leader Marwan Barghuti
and other faction representatives. He predicted that Hamas
would seek changes to the document in order to avoid a
potential split within Hamas.


7. (C) Former Fatah PLC member Qadurra Faris echoed
al-Shaykh's comments and agreed with Abbas' approach. Faris
suggested that the prisoners' document emphasized the
relevancy of Barghuti in the Palestinian political arena. He
also expected that Hamas would have a difficult time opposing
the document since the prisoners, including Barghuti and
Hamas' Shaykh al-Natshah have already endorsed it. He
expected that Hamas would seek to make changes to the
document over the next 10 days in an effort to avoid a
national referendum.


8. (C) FIDA Secretary General and PLO-EC member Saleh
Ra'fat, told POL FSN that his faction supported Abbas and the
prisoners' document. He thought that Hamas would come under
pressure to support the proposal in its current form. Ra'fat
expressed hope that the agreement on the prisoners' document
would provide the way out of the current international
opposition to the Hamas-led PA.

Next Steps
--------------


9. (C) The "National Dialogue" is slated to reconvene at
1700L May 25 for additional speeches. Following the
speeches, conference participants are expected to appoint
delegates to the committees that will address the prisoners'
document. The delegates are scheduled to begin discussions
on the basis of the prisoner's document on May 26.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Abu Mazen's decision to embrace the prisoners'
initiative will resonate well with the Palestinian public.
At this stage, it is not clear how Hamas will react to Abu
Mazen's move. The gap between the prisoners' initiative and
the Quartet requirements will have to be bridged in order to
deal with the international isolation brought about by the
inauguration of a Hamas-led government. However, Abu Mazen's
move has transformed the internal political debate and
started a process that could lead to an end-game.

WALLES