FAYYAD AND ABED RABBO ON NATIONAL DIALOGUE AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 002058

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE; NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/LOGERFO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2016
TAGS: KPAL KWBG PREL IS
SUBJECT: FAYYAD AND ABED RABBO ON NATIONAL DIALOGUE AND
CIVIL SOCIETY PROPOSALS


Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, per reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) member
Salam Fayyad and PLO Executive Committee (PLO-EC) member
Yasir Abed Rabbo told the Consul General at a May 20 meeting
in Ramallah that plans are moving forward for the National
Dialogue, but some of President Abbas' (Abu Mazen) closest
advisors do not understand how the dialogue fits into a
broader strategy for isolating HAMAS. Fayyad and Abed Rabbo
discussed plans to reinvigorate the Palestinian NGO sector to
create alternatives to civil and social institutions
dominated by HAMAS. END SUMMARY.

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National Dialogue
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2. (C) Abed Rabbo explained that the National Dialogue,
scheduled for May 25 and 26, is intended to be the first step
in a political scenario that will isolate HAMAS and break the
political stalemate. According to Abed Rabbo, the event will
include 300 representatives from Fatah, HAMAS, the PLO EC and
civil society members. Abed Rabbo said he is writing Abu
Mazen's speech, which will emphasize that the current crisis
facing the Palestinian people is a political rather than a
financial crisis, brought on by HAMAS' refusal to accept a
"positive" agenda. Abu Mazen will urge the National Dialogue
participants to endorse the Arab League Initiative and the
Quartet conditions, noting that if they fail to come to an
agreement he will "take the matter to the people," possibly
via a national referendum.


3. (C) Abed Rabbo predicted that there is "zero percent
chance" that the National Dialogue would produce an
agreement. Abed Rabbo explained that he didn't believe Hamas
would accept the idea of a referendum, as they would see it
as calling into question the Hamas victory in the January PLC
elections. However, Abed Rabbo saw the referendum offer as a
useful political ploy to corner Hamas and give Abu Mazen an
excuse to dissolve the government if Hamas refused a
referendum. In the unlikely event Hamas accepted a
referendum, Abed Rabbo estimated that 60-70 percent of
Palestinians would vote in favor. Abed Rabbo said these
steps would expose the "widening gap" between HAMAS' program
and the Palestinian national agenda. Abed Rabbo predicted
that after the National Dialogue, it will be evident to
Palestinians that HAMAS has no solutions to the current
crisis and is only interested in holding on to power.

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Abed Rabbo: Abu Mazen's
Advisors Don't Get It
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4. (C) Abed Rabbo complained that some of Abu Mazen's closest
advisors do not understand how the National Dialogue fits
into the broader strategy to isolate HAMAS and unify Fatah
around Abu Mazen's political agenda. Abed Rabbo noted that
Fatah PLC member Ahmad 'Abd al-Rahman had proposed that the
National Dialogue serve as a permanent committee when "the
point is for it to meet and fail." Likewise, 'Abd al-Rahman
had put forward unpopular Fatah figures such as PLC member
Nabil Sha'ath and former PM Ahmad Qureia to serve as Fatah's
representatives. In contrast to the failure of Abu Mazen's
advisors to understand the strategic aspect of the dialogue,
Abed Rabbo said the HAMAS leadership appears to have already
begun strategizing for the dialogue. Abed Rabbo noted that
the HAMAS leadership have downplayed the dialogue's
importance in their public statements and begun jockeying
behind the scenes for a discussion on HAMAS' political
priorities, i.e. implementation of the Cairo Understandings
on HAMAS' entrance into the PLO.


5. (C) Fayyad concurred, adding that decreased support for
HAMAS will not necessarily translate to "increased support
for Fatah" if Abu Mazen fails to articulate Fatah's political
program and bring the movement "back on the offensive."
Fayyad quipped that the entire strategy for the National
Dialogue will fail if Abu Mazen merely gives a speech and
"goes back to Europe."

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Reinvigorating the NGO Sector
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6. (C) In response to the Consul General's question, Fayyad
and Abed Rabbo discussed plans to reinvigorate Palestinian
civil society. Fayyad said he had been in touch with PLC
member Muhammad Dahlan regarding a proposal to strengthen

civil society and create alternatives to HAMAS institutions.
Abed Rabbo described parallel efforts underway that will
focus on three sectors: sports and youth; cultural
organizations; and women's issues. Fayyad suggested that an
umbrella organization should be established for each of the
three sectors that would coordinate funding, activities, and
policies. Abed Rabbo said he is working to develop a list of
strong contacts and appropriate institutions for the
proposal. The Consul General replied that the USG is eager
to support Palestinian civil society and the EU and others
would likely follow the US lead in such an effort. Abed
Rabbo promised to put together a concrete proposal for
discussion within the next two weeks.

WALLES