Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06JERUSALEM1685
2006-04-26 14:58:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Jerusalem
Cable title:  

NABLUSIS CONCERNED ABOUT PALESTINIAN GOVERNMENT,

Tags:  PREL KPAL KWBG 
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VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHJM #1685/01 1161458
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 261458Z APR 06
FM AMCONSUL JERUSALEM
TO RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 3030
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1776
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 001685 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON: PLEASE PASS TO A/S WELCH AND DAPNSA ABRAMS
NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE AND IPA; NSC FOR DORAN/LOGERFO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2016
TAGS: PREL KPAL KWBG
SUBJECT: NABLUSIS CONCERNED ABOUT PALESTINIAN GOVERNMENT,
US POLICY


Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d).


-------
Summary
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C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 001685

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON: PLEASE PASS TO A/S WELCH AND DAPNSA ABRAMS
NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE AND IPA; NSC FOR DORAN/LOGERFO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2016
TAGS: PREL KPAL KWBG
SUBJECT: NABLUSIS CONCERNED ABOUT PALESTINIAN GOVERNMENT,
US POLICY


Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d).


--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) In a series of meetings with prominent Nablus
personalities on April 25, Consul General heard concerns
about the future of the Palestinian government and relations
with Israel. Munib al-Masri, a leading businessman and host
for the meetings, outlined his private-sector initiative
intended to produce a Palestinian coalition government that
could comply with Quartet conditions. al-Najah University
President (and CEC official) Rami Hamdallah thought that
political support for Hamas is still strong, pointing to
recent Bir Zeit University elections on April 19 that
returned a Hamas plurality. Hamdallah said Fatah members
asked him if the CEC would be ready to conduct a snap
election as early as July; he said the CEC is ready, but
could not say the same about Fatah. An expanded session
showcased concerns about the impact of continuing IDF
closures, U.S. policy inadvertently strengthening Hamas, and
consequences of Israeli PM Olmert's convergence plan. A
later press conference produced positive results, with the
Consul Generals' explanation of the need for Hamas compliance
with Quartet goals and continuing U.S. assistance to the
Palestinian people receiving wide coverage.

--------------
New Private Sector Political Initiative
--------------


2. (C) Prominent Palestinian businessman and PLO Central
Committee Member Munib al-Masri, accompanied by al-Najah
University President (and Central Elections Commission (CEC)
chairman) Rami Hamdallah briefed Consul General on an
initiative by Masri to resolve the mounting disputes between
President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) and the PA cabinet.
Masri's idea is to push for a coalition government comprising
all political factions, but not led by Hamas, thereby
allowing both the Presidency and the Cabinet to engage on
international issues and comply with the Quartet conditions.
Masri also supports a national dialogue -- to include the
President's office and the PA cabinet -- to find a way to end

the economic and political crises facing the Palestinian
people. Stressing that "I'm not Fatah; I'm Palestinian,"
Masri said he would continue to work on Palestinian popular
acceptance of a two-state solution, but also asked for U.S.
assistance for his initiative. In response, Consul General
emphasized the need for any new PA government to accept
Quartet conditions in order to end international isolation
and resume a political process with Israel.


3. (C) Hamdallah commented on the disturbing April 19
election results from Bir Zeit University, where a pro-Hamas
slate won 23 seats to Fatah's 18. In last year's election,
the pro-Fatah slate won 23 seats to 22 for Hamas. Hamdallah
observed that Hamas supporters are pointing to the election
results as a sign of increasing popular support for Hamas in
response to the international pressure since the PLC
elections and formation of the Hamas cabinet. He thought
elections at his university might produce a similar return in
the fall.


4. (C) Hamdallah said that former Prime Minister Ahmad
Quraya' (Abu Ala'a) had asked him whether the CEC would be
ready to conduct snap elections in July. Hamdallah said that
the CEC would be ready, but that he had his doubts about
Fatah and thought that Hamas might repeat its January
performance, or even do better. Masri thought a July
national election would be a "disaster" and wondered whether
Abu Ala'a was really asking about a Presidential election in
which he could challenge Abu Mazen.

--------------
Expanded Session: Closures and Olmert
--------------


5. (C) In an expanded session and lunch that included Masri,
Hamdallah, and prominent Nablusi businessmen, politicians,
and a labor leader, the Consul General reviewed U.S.
assistance and contact policies, and heard concerns about
collective punishment of the Palestinian people and unclear
political horizons. Chamber of Commerce head Basel Kan'an
said that Nablus - which he believed had been singled out by
the Israelis since the start of the 2000 intifada - was now

suffering even more because of increased IDF closures and
restrictions. He argued that Nablus is unfairly acquiring a
reputation as a source of terrorism, and complained in
particular about a total closure that had been effect since
Passover.


6. (C) Vegetable Oil executive Mahdi al-Masri, a cousin of
Munib and a failed Fatah candidate in the recent Nablus
municipal elections, spoke admiringly of the Hamas social
welfare programs and the ability of the movement to harness
it for political gain. He pressed for new faces in Fatah and
U.S. assistance in addressing social needs to enable Fatah to
benefit from the same political model successfully exploited
by Hamas. Labor leader Shaher Saed charged the outside world
with the collective punishment of the Palestinian people, and
also asked for more attention to IDF operations. Saed
expressed concern about the upcoming visit of Israeli PM
Olmert to the United States in May, saying that the expected
U.S. approval of Olmert's convergence plan could pave the way
for a third intifada.


7. (C) Mahmoud Aloul, former Nablus governor and a successful
Fatah candidate in the January Palestinian Legislative
Council (PLC) elections, said that there is plenty of blame
to go around for the PLC election results, and said that U.S.
positions had contributed to the Hamas election victory.
Aloul pressed for US engagement with the current government,
explaining that the U.S. had played a key role in ensuring
PLC elections occurred on time, and should set a political
example of dealing constructively with the results of
democratic elections. Aloul also warned against a strategy
predicated on the collapse of the Hamas government,
explaining that such a result would actually play into the
long-range plans of Hamas extremists, who would welcome and
facilitate such a collapse.


8. (C) Current Nablus governor Said Abu Ali - a political
rival of Aloul - also supported U.S. engagement with the
current government, saying that "governments come and go" and
that ongoing relations with the Palestinian people are the
key point. He unconsciously echoed Aloul's points, saying
that U.S. responsibility for the PLC elections meant that the
U.S. should share in the consequences. Abu Ali described
the symbolic, political, and economic importance of Nablus,
and ended by calling for more international attention to be
paid to the city.


9. (C) Former Nablus Mayor and current PLO Executive
Committee member Ghassan Shakaa said that the Palestinian
people support President Bush's vision of a two-state
solution but have abandoned faith in the peace process given
the lack of results. He said the people had punished Fatah
in the PLC elections, and that those committed to peace
needed to find ways to restore that hope and resume
negotiations. He thought that any pressure campaign directed
against Hamas needed to be carefully calibrated to ensure
that it did not inadvertently instead strengthen the
movement's domestic political situation. Shakaa expressed his
concern about Olmert's convergence plan and its long-range
consequences.

--------------
Media Coverage
--------------


10. (C) Palestinian dailies reported the meetings and quoted
the Consul General's remarks at a press conference
afterwards. The press noted the Consul General's comments
that the U.S. will continue to assist the Palestinian people
and that our objective is to encourage the PA government to
accept Quartet requirements, not to see the government fail.
WALLES