SUEBU, ATURURI LIKELY WINNERS IN CONTROVERSIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 003246

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS ID
SUBJECT: SUEBU, ATURURI LIKELY WINNERS IN CONTROVERSIAL
PAPUAN ELECTIONS

REF: A. JAKARTA 3160 (PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS LIKELY TO

SEAL PARTITION OF PAPUA)

B. 05 JAKARTA 15417 (VICE PRESIDENT KALLA BROKERS
PAPUA SETTLEMENT)

JAKARTA 00003246 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: B. Lynn Pascoe, Ambassador. Reason: 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: Preliminary results indicate that Barnabas
"Bas" Suebu and Alex Hesegem were elected as governor and
vice governor of Papua province on Friday, March 10. On the
following day, incumbent Abraham Atururi and Rahimin Katjong
won in neighboring West Irian Jaya province, prevailing over
the controversial Golkar candidate Yorrys Raweyai in an
election that many Papuans believe never should have been
held. The only reported violence did not take place in West
Irian Jaya as some had feared (reftel A paras 9 -10),but
rather in a mountainous regency of Papua where residents were
angered by the defeat of a local favorite son. The Papuan
People's Council (Majles Rakyat Papua, MRP),which had
rejected the West Irian Jaya election as consolidating the
partition of Papua into the two provinces, is considering
next steps, such as legal action. The central government
could best defuse the escalating political confrontation by
taking credible actions to reaffirm its good faith commitment
to full implementation of the Special Autonomy Law. End
summary.

Slim Lead For Suebu-Hesegem in Papua
--------------


2. (SBU) As Monday, March 13, Barnabas "Bas" Suebu and his
running mate Alex Hesegem held a slim lead over four other
tickets in the March 10 election for governor of Papua
province. Although Suebu is a senior member of Golkar,
former President Megawati invited him to head the PDI-P
ticket in Papua. With 16 of 20 regencies reporting, he holds
a slim lead (29-30 percent of the vote counted so far) over
Lukas Enembe and Arobi Ahmad "Robby" Aituarauw (28 percent).
As long as Suebu's percentage remains above 25 percent, he
can avoid a runoff. The Golkar ticket John Ibo-Pascalis
Kosay is in third place, with about 23 percent. Two other
tickets headed by former deputy governor Konstan Karma andQ
Henk Wabiser, a former admiral, trailed in fourth and fifth
place.


3. (SBU) In the only reported instance of violence in either
Papua or West Irian Jaya, supporters of local favorite son
Enembe trashed an electoral office in Mulia, Puncak Jaya
regency, because they were unhappy with the results of the
electoral count. No arrests were made, according to media
reports. We expect a final result later this week. If Suebu
maintains his lead, he will be sworn in next month.


4. (SBU) The race in Papua province was observed by the
domestic monitoring NGO JPPR, which reported that it found
problems with voter lists but no instances of wholesale
fraud. JPPR attributed the problems it found to sloppiness
and inefficiency.

Clash Averted in West Irian Jaya
--------------


5. (C) Despite predictions of conflict and boycotts of the
March 11 election in West Irian Jaya (reftel A),polling
appears to have been peaceful. There is moreover no
indication that voters heeded calls to boycott the vote,
suggesting that the MRP's protests did not fall on fertile
ground in West Irian Jaya. Interim results vary but all show
Abraham "Bram" Atururi, who with his deputy Rahimin Katjong
ran on the PDI-P ticket, with a wide lead over his Golkar
opponents, DPD member Yorrys Raweyai and Abdul Killian. One
interim result gives Atururi 62 percent of the vote. Another
ticket composed of Decky Asmuruf and Ali Kastella trails in a
distant third place.


6. (C) Despite having been required to having step down last
summer in favor of a civil servant caretaker governor,
Atururi seems to have benefited from his previous incumbency
and the loyalty of the large Arfak ethnic group in the
Manokwari area. In a conversation with poloff before
stepping down last April, Atururi had confidently predicted
his reelection, noting that he had political backing in
Sorong as a result of a previous tenure there as regent, and
had built a new base of support in Manokwari. Atururi
himself calculated that these bases, comprising the majority
of West Irian Jaya's population, would deliver roughly sixty

JAKARTA 00003246 002.2 OF 002


percent of the vote.


7. (SBU) The West Irian Jaya race was also closely watched
because of the controversial presence of Yorrys, head of a
thuggish political militia in the last years of the Suharto
era. Yorrys has said that he will appeal the election
results because many voters in Sorong and Fak-fak did not
receive voter ID cards in time. Despite these claims,
leaders of his Yorrys' own party in Sorong have called
Atururi the winner, and the monitoring group JPPR has said
that is has not yet received reports of any major
irregularities.

MRP Contemplating Next Steps
--------------


8. (C) As reported reftel A, the Papuan People's Assembly
(Majles Rakyat Papua, MRP),believed that the West Irian Jaya
elections should not have been held until a new legal basis
was agreed for the existence of the province. This is a view
shared by elites in Papua province as well. In a March 13
discussion with poloff, Pastor Phil Erari addressed the issue
in more detail. Erari is an associate of Bas Suebu, who
appears set to become Papua's next governor, and is also
close to MRP Chairman Agus Alua. He said that Vice President
Kalla had reneged on his November deal (reftel B) on a
comprehensive settlement to the Papua question, and that the
MRP believed it had grounds for legal action. Erari said
that the MRP interprets paragraph 73 of the implementing
regulation for the Special Autonomy Law as requiring its
input on the status of West Irian Jaya. By ignoring this and
holding direct elections, the central government has violated
the Special Autonomy Law, Erari argued.


9. (C) Kalla publicly stated last Friday that he does not
regard the Special Autonomy as applicable in West Irian Jaya,
a position with puts him at even greater odds with the MRP.
Erari said that the question now being argued among the MRP,
the government of Papua province, and various indigenous
groups is whether to continue to accept Special Autonomy as
the basis for dialogue with the central government. Erari
said that Suebu and the MRP are committed to salvaging it,
while more radical groups want to formally repudiate it and
hold a referendum on the future of Papua's relationship with
the central government. This is a step that the central
government would consider provocative at best and outright
separatism at worst.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) While we welcome the fact that there was no real
violence in connection with last weekend's elections, it is
clear that relations between the central government, on the
one hand, and the MRP and Papuan political elites on the
other, are rapidly eroding. This is not necessarily the
death knell for the Special Autonomy law, since its most
important political institution, the MRP, and its
revenue-sharing provisions are still in place. With British
Petroleum's new Tangguh liquefied natural gas project located
in West Irian Jaya, the financial stakes of the status of the
province are high, since the operation will eventually become
an important contributor to Special Autonomy revenues. For
the situation to improve, the central government must somehow
reaffirm its commitment to Special Autonomy, preferably by
fulfilling its promise to issue a new legal regulation on the
status of West Irian Jaya, drawing on input from the MRP and
the provincial government of Papua as plainly stipulated
under the Special Autonomy Law.
PASCOE