MEGAWATI SURVEYS THE INDONESIAN POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 013361

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM KISL ID
SUBJECT: MEGAWATI SURVEYS THE INDONESIAN POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

REF: A. 05 JAKARTA 15147 (MEGAWATI CRITICIZES YUDHOYONO)


B. 05 JAKARTA 2378 (MEGAWATI WORRIES ABOUT ISLAMISTS)

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Classified By: Classified By: Ambassador Lynn B. Pascoe, reason: 1.4 (d
).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) During a November 28 meeting with the Ambassador,
former President Megawati Soekarnoputri avoided discussing
whether she would consider cooperating with President
Yudhoyono's government, bemoaned the increasing influence of
Islamists in Indonesian politics, and outlined the challenges
of decentralization. Megawati blamed Indonesia's
constitution and resulting bureaucratic structural problems
for the difficulties she encountered in carrying out her
agenda as President, and noted that SBY was also finding it
difficult to deliver on campaign promises. Megawati endorsed
the idea of limiting the number of political parties in
Indonesia and commented that the country was still evolving
as a democracy. She seemed relaxed, confident and unusually
talkative. End Summary.

OUT OF OFFICE, BUT NOT OUT OF POWER
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2. (C) The former President received the Ambassador in her
Menteng residence and appeared to be in good health.
Megawati expressed confidence about the strength of her
political party, Indonesian Democratic Party - Struggle
(PDI-P),noting that PDI-P outperformed all of its political
rivals in last year's provincial elections and asserting
PDI-P carried its momentum into this year's local elections.
She questioned whether her party could even be considered
"out of power," as it controlled more provincial legislatures
and Governor's offices than any other party, perhaps an even
better indicator of a party's overall strength than its
performance in national elections.


3. (C) Megawati reviewed the expansive field of competing
political parties and dismissed the vast majority of them as
"young and inexperienced," asserting PDI-P's storied history
and collection of talented cadres would guarantee its staying
power. She pointed to uninspiring legislators in the
Indonesian House of Representatives (DPR) from parties such
as Prosperous Justice (PKS) and the Democratic Party (PD) as
evidence of the importance of experience. Megawati supported
a proposal currently under consideration in the DPR to limit
the number of political parties based on performance in
national legislative elections and praised America's
two-party system. She argued the seemingly limitless number
of political parties in Indonesia muddied the political
dialogue and necessitated onerous coalition building efforts.
In Megawati's opinion, the recent U.S. mid-term elections
reflected the fact that in the U.S., the two parties adjusted
and responded to the voters needs.

TRIP DOWN MEMORY LANE
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4. (C) Addressing the Ambassador's question about the
challenges of working in the opposition, Megawati seized the
opportunity to blame an unwieldy bureaucracy for her
shortcomings as President and subsequent defeat in the 2004
election. She suggested she would have enjoyed a much more
successful presidency had she not endorsed the hastily
conceived 1999 constitution, a document she blamed for
handicapping the institution of the presidency with
unnecessary bureaucratic impediments. She said SBY was
experiencing the same bureaucratic frustrations that she did,
and blamed international parties, including the U.S., for
pushing Indonesia into democracy and reform without first
installing a well-conceived institutional framework.
Democracy, she said, was a "marathon and not a sprint," and
though she complimented the American democratic model, she
cautioned that Indonesian democracy was in its infancy
compared to that of the United States.


5. (C) The former President held up her father's presidency
as a model for articulating a vision for the country and then
enjoying the institutional freedom needed to carry it out.
She bemoaned the fact the she was limited to only one short
term, arguing that the lack of continuity in the presidency
damaged the country. She said this lack of continuity harmed

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not only to the Indonesian people, but also all of South East
Asia.

ISLAMIC PARTIES
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6. (C) Turning her attention to the increasing influence of
Islamic political parties, Megawati stressed her belief that
parties like PKS were not acting in the best interests of the
country. She emphasized PDI-P's nationalist credentials and
said both she and her party were committed to staving off the
threat posed by religiously motivated parties. As evidence
of her commitment to battling the likes of PKS, she noted
that PDI-P had recently joined forces with Golkar and several
other parties in an effort to keep the governorship of the
province of Banten out of PKS hands. (Note: It appears their
effort was successful, as preliminary returns from the
November 26 election suggest the PKS candidate was defeated
by the PDI-P supported Golkar incumbent).


7. (C) The Ambassador noted the importance of selling a
party's vision to young Indonesians and asked Megawati how
secular and religious parties were faring in the battle for
the next generation. Megawati suggested the Islamist parties
were strong at the grassroots level, but that PDI-P and other
secular parties had successfully made the distinction between
believing in the Islamic faith and supporting Islamic
parties; PDI-P, in particular, had convinced growing numbers
of young Indonesians of the merits of a secular party rooted
in the ideology of Pancasila. Megawati said even in Aceh,
arguably the most conservative province in Indonesia,
anecdotal evidence suggested a majority of residents living
in areas with shariah law were skeptical of the role of Islam
in politics and increasingly turning to secular parties like
PDI-P. Acehnese were becoming disillusioned with corporal
punishment practices like caning and expressing
dissatisfaction with compulsory wardrobe regulations.

DECENTRALIZATION
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8. (C) The former President expressed her concern with the
growing economic and social disparities between some of
Indonesia's provinces, and argued that decentralization was
contributing to this problem. She contrasted the quality of
the health and education infrastructure in Java with that of
Papua, saying the provincial and district level governments
in Papua were much less capable of addressing critical issues
than their counterparts in Java. Decentralization was in
some cases accentuating resource and leadership inequities,
and she expressed hope that PDI-P's growing influence in
local governments could help address this issue.

COMMENT
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9. (C) Megawati was in a much more expansive mood than we
have seen in recent years. She dodged virtually every
question she was asked (typically without even the pretense
of an effort to link her responses to the queries),but
seemed interested in discussing a range of issues
nonetheless. On the crucial question of whether she might
consider burying the hatchet with SBY and partnering with the
government, she kept her cards very close to her chest.
Megawati expressed concerns about SBY's political reliance on
Islamic parties, Golkar's influence in the cabinet, and the
fact that the President was politically constrained in his
ability to pursue desperately needed reforms. She also all
but acknowledged that she could address those concerns in one
fell swoop by endorsing the government. She said nothing,
however, to suggest that she had any plans to do so.
PASCOE