Aceh: Election Update

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 013282

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
AIDAC
SENSITIVE

Dept for EAP/MTS
NSC for Holly Morrow

From American Consulate Medan # 31, 2006

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV AS ID
SUBJECT: Aceh: Election Update



1. (U) Summary: Aceh will hold provincial elections on
December 11, the province's first since the signing of the
Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the government and
pro-independence forces in Helsinki in 2005. According to
the election rules, candidates must receive more than 25
percent of the vote to win outright. Because of the large
number of candidates running for governor, a runoff election
will likely be necessary. Aceh's geography, poor
infrastructure, and level of development pose significant
logistical challenges, and some election regulations lack
the specificity needed to enforce them effectively. The
U.S. is providing substantial assistance to ensure that the
elections are free, fair, and successfully conducted. End
Summary.

Election Schedule
--------------

2. (U) On December 11, Aceh will hold elections for Governor
and Vice Governor, Mayor and Vice Mayor of Banda Aceh and
Lhokseumawe, and Head and Deputy Head of every District
except Bireuen and Aceh Selatan.


3. (U) After the voting has been completed, Aceh will
tabulate the votes in a multi-level process which may take
several weeks. On election day, each polling station will
tabulate its own results. The following day, they are
scheduled to send their ballot boxes and counts to a sub-
district office which will re-tabulate the votes. The sub-
districts have five days to complete their count and deliver
the ballots and results to the district level, which then
has five days to verify and audit the results before
submitting them to the provincial election commission.


4. (SBU) Because of this time consuming process, tabulation
and verification is not scheduled to be completed until
January 1 - nearly 3 weeks after the election. Several
district KIP offices have told us that, despite the
protracted schedule, they intend to complete their official
tallies between 48 and 72 hours after the election.


5. (SBU) Many observers identify the layered and time
consuming approach to tabulation as a significant weakness
in the electoral process because it offers multiple
opportunities to manipulate the outcome. Election officials
acknowledge this, but believe that it can be managed by the
Election Supervisory Committee, which is assigning more than
600 monitors to oversee the election. Several district KIP
offices have devised special procedures whereby they will
collect vote count data directly from polling stations to
prevent sub-district level offices from manipulating the
election.

Picking the Winner
--------------

6. (U) Under the election law, a candidate must receive more
than 25 percent of the vote to win. Because of the number
of candidates contesting the election, it is likely that no
candidate will obtain 25 percent in the first round,
necessitating a runoff between the top two candidates 90
days after the first round.

Independent Candidates
--------------

7. (U) Many of the candidates in these elections are running
as independents, a privilege accorded to the province
according to the terms of the Helsinki Memorandum of
Understanding (MOU) and implemented in the new law governing
Aceh. Elsewhere in Indonesia, candidates must be sponsored
by a national political party.


8. (U) Independent candidates are competing in every
election; slightly less than half of them are informal GAM
candidates. In at least one district, Bener Meriah, the
former head of an anti-independence militia is running as an
independent against a former GAM commander who is also
running as an independent. At the province level, three of
eight pairs of candidates are independent, including both
Irwandi Yusuf from GAM and former TNI Commander for Aceh,
Gen. Djali Yusuf.

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Logistical and Regulatory Challenges
--------------

9. (SBU) Logistical challenges are the most significant
obstacle officials face in this election. They point out
that 2.6 million voters will cast their ballots in more than
8,500 polling stations throughout the province. Many of the
polling stations are located in remote villages with limited
communications and transportation infrastructure.
Privately, province-level KIP officials worry that mistakes
will inevitably be made and some polling stations may not
receive voting materials on time. Lower level KIP offices
are more optimistic that they can overcome these challenges.


10. (SBU) In addition, the Chief of Provincial Election
Supervisory Body has complained that he lacks the tools to
enforce election regulations because the law does not
stipulate punishments for violations. Many candidates, for
example, have posted campaign materials in contravention of
the regulations, but it is not clear what sanctions, if any,
should be applied. Should a party attempt to intimidate
voters or engage in blatant vote buying - problems which he
believes are inevitable - he has, he said, no way to punish
violators.

U.S. Assistance to the Electoral Process
--------------

11. (U) The United States is providing approximately $2
million for election support, including USAID-funded
programs to strengthen election management, voter education,
and election integrity. USG assistance has supported an
audit of voter registration throughout the province and is
facilitating the training of 35,000 Indonesian election
monitors and 10,000 poll workers. The Embassy will also send
approximately 35 staff members to monitor the election.
Several organizations, including the European Union, have
announced that they will field election monitoring teams as
well.
PASCOE