INDONESIA - OCTOBER 20 AVIAN INFLUENZA (AI) UPDATE

UNCLAS JAKARTA 012828

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: TBIO AMED CASC EAGR AMGT PGOV ID KFLU
SUBJECT: INDONESIA - OCTOBER 20 AVIAN INFLUENZA (AI) UPDATE

REF: A) Jakarta 12781 B) Jakarta 12253


1. (SBU) Summary. Coordinating Minister for Peoples' Welfare
Aburizal Bakrie announced at an October 20 news conference a
decrease in the number of AI-affected provinces over the past six
months from 30 to 16. At the same news conference, Agriculture
Minister Anton Apriyantono announced government plans to force
city residents to cage fowl. However, on October 22, critics
including Indonesia Consumers' Foundation Chief Husna Zahier and
sociologist Ida Ruwaidi reportedly expressed skepticism about the
Government's plan to contain poultry in residential areas. With
no new human cases since Ref A, as of October 27, NAMRU-2 data
reflect 72 confirmed cases with 55 fatalities. End Summary.

GOI Officials Make Positive AI Announcements
--------------


2. (SBU) At an October 20 press conference, several GOI officials
announced recent progress in Indonesia's efforts to control AI.
Coordinating Minister for Peoples' Welfare Aburizal Bakrie
announced that the number of Indonesian provinces affected by the
AI virus in poultry has fallen from 30 to 16 over the past six
months. "That finding is based on our observations for the last
six months", Bakrie said. "Fourteen provinces have been
considered free or did not report any bird flu cases to the
National Committee for AI Control and Pandemic Influenza
Preparedness", he continued. "There have been massive
vaccinations of livestock in areas prone to the virus."


3. (SBU) When we attempted to corroborate Bakrie's announcement,
National AI Committee head Bayu Krisnamurthi told us that "14
provinces...in the last 6 months have not reported nor identified
(from surveillance) any incident of AI in birds. These 14
provinces are part of the 30 provinces which are already endemic
with AI."


4. (U) Agriculture Minister Anton Apriyantono announced at the
same press conference Government plans to force city residents to
cage fowl. "There will be a regulation that all poultry must be
put inside cages, especially in urban areas", Apriyantono said.
He did not disclose when the ban would take effect but noted that
it needs to be further coordinated with other ministries,
provincial administrators and the military. The timeframe "is
being worked out" with experts from the U.N.'s Food and
Agriculture Organization, Apriyantono said, adding that GOI has
the authority to enact the rule based on existing agricultural
regulations.

Doubts From Consumer Groups
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5. (U) Despite the announcements by the two ministers, on October
22 Indonesia Consumers' Foundation Chief Husna Zahier and
sociologist Ida Ruwaidi expressed doubts to Jakarta Post
reporters about the government's plan to contain poultry in
residential areas. Zahier noted the plan would be ineffective
without a careful study of poultry and the relationship of
poultry with their owners. "Keeping birds or poultry as a hobby
or for eggs or meat is not the same," she said. Ruwaidi noted
that quantity of birds, chickens and ducks that people kept in
residential areas also mattered. "The large quantity of the
poultry stock means that the whole community in the area, not
just local administration or fowl owners should also take
responsibility," she noted. She advocated that everyone in
affected areas should be authorized to "enforce social control"
and that individuals should be given authority to monitor and
report on their neighbors whether poultry is caged or allowed to
roam free.

NAMRU-2 Human AI Case Profile
--------------

6. (SBU) NAMRU-2 reports no new human cases since Ref A. NAMRU-2
tested five patient samples from a reported Sulawesi cluster of
suspected case over the weekend of October 21. All samples
tested negative for H5N1. NAMRU-2 confirmed H1 (ordinary flu)
for one of these samples. NAMRU-2 data indicates the following
AI-related case profile as of October 27:

-- Number of laboratory confirmed (positive PCR and/or serology)
human AI cases: 72, of which 55 have been fatal (case fatality
rate of 77 percent).

-- Number of probable AI cases 3 (2 deaths, 67%).

-- Number of cases awaiting analysis at the U.S. CDC: 3.

-- Number of possible untested AI cases under investigation (last
30 days): approximately 28.

Note: NAMRU-2 data corresponds with MOH data but may vary at
times with AI case figures presented on the official World Health
Organization (WHO) website, which usually lags NAMRU-2 data by
one week. The WHO website, last updated on October 16, notes 72
human AI cases in Indonesia with 55 deaths. WHO figures can be
accessed at www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza.

PASCOE