FORMER GOT MINISTER ERDAL INONU PREDICTS AN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000625

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: FORMER GOT MINISTER ERDAL INONU PREDICTS AN
INCREASINGLY WESTERN-ORIENTED TURKEY

REF: ISTANBUL 419

Classified By: Consul General Deborah K. Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) Summary. Erdal Inonu, son of Turkey's second
President and himself a former deputy prime minister,
predicts Turkey will continue the project of westernization
begun under Ataturk. Despite the current Islamic-oriented
governing party, he predicts Turks will continue toward a
progressive society that sharpens Ataturk's vision of Turkey
as a part of Europe and close to the United States. He
cautioned against confusing the demands of Islam and
Christianity on government, predicted the Justice and
Development Party (AKP) had one more term in office -- not
long enough to damage the secular state -- and joined others
in concluding that Turkish Land Forces Commander Buyukanit
would become Chief of the Turkish Joint Staff later this year
in his expected rotation. End summary.

GOING FOR EU ACCESSION -- AN AKP CONTRADICTION?
-------------- --


2. (C) Former Social Democratic People's Party leader (SHP)
and Deputy Prime Minister Erdal Inonu recently commented to
us on the range of issues facing Turkey. Stating that Prime
Minister Erdogan's AKP was "clearly motivated" by Islamic
principles, Inonu felt the government's concerted push to
gain EU accession was motivated in part by the desire to
marginalize Turkey's military, a watch dog for maintenance of
Turkey's secular state. Prime Minister Erdogan and his
strategists reasoned that an early and effective move toward
EU accession would essentially block a military take over in
Turkey. This, they reasoned, would give AKP a freer hand to
make religiously-inspired legal changes to erode the secular
state. Inonu judged that to date the approach has failed and
brought no meaningful changes to law or practice in Turkey.
Inonu said that according to his read, Turkish society as a
whole favors strengthening its western orientation rather
than regressing to pre-republican norms in key areas of
public life.



3. (C) Describing democracy as a natural ally of
westernization, Inonu noted that Ataturk had had to "force
march" modernization on the early republic, but that the
country was now moving democratically toward the modern state
Ataturk envisioned. Thought unwilling to "guarantee it," he
was certain a western-oriented Turkey was ever closer to
reality. Even a religiously-conservative party like AKP
supported the EU process, albeit for its own reasons. Inonu
predicted Erdogan would carry his party to victory in the
next general election but not beyond. Having tried to begin
an institutionalization of religion in public life,
particularly through key appointments, in the end, the AKP
would run out of time before they could change the secular
impulse.


4. (C) On the tense relations between the AKP government
and the military, Inonu said that the bungled indictment in
March against Land Forces Commander General Yasar Buyukanit
was meant to derail his appointment as Chief of the General
Staff. But according to Inonu, public reaction was swift and
hostile to the government. He was confident Buyukanit would
be named to the position. While Inonu recalled two other
times of political pressure on the TGS Chief, the
government's apparent attempt to bump Buykanit from line via
judicial accusations was unprecedented in the republic's
history.

CALL FOR REFORMATION
--------------


5. (SBU) Inonu explained a key difference between Islam and
Christianity respecting the state. A Christian leader, he
said, could invoke the name of God in a public speech without
stirring fears of a fundamentalist conspiracy or subversion.
But rather than simply setting a moral tone for society, as
in the west, he claimed that Islam mandates principles
regulating government and imposes strict and formal
guidelines for the state to follow, including sharia law.
This is why when Prime Minister Erdogan began a speech
recently in Sudan with, "In the name of Allah, the Most
Beneficent and Most Merciful," some secular Turks were upset.



6. (SBU) Inonu also said Islam was in need of reformation,
something we have heard from numerous contacts in academia,
the religious community and elsewhere. Inonu claimed Ataturk
introduced a limited religious reform action. He was able to

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force new rules on state and society because the religious
establishment had cooperated with Turkey's enemies. There
was no choice but for Ataturk to impose reforms that modified
certain religious practices in Turkey. But Turkey -- and
Islam -- today still need theological reform in order to
enter the modern era. Inonu saw hopeful signs, citing
changes in the practice of women who attend funerals. After
a group of women stood beside men at a funeral in Izmir a
couple of years ago, the matter had been debated in Turkey.
In the end, agreement was reached to change received practice
-- despite opposition -- and women now stand side by side
with men at funerals.


7. (C) Comment. Inonu and his views represent the epitome
of the westernized Istanbul elite. AKP's army of volunteers
in Istanbul notwithstanding (reftel),there is a strong sense
of modernity and appreciation for western culture among
professionals and the young people that flood the city center
every day for work, entertainment and shopping. Inonu
clearly has the pulse of this segment of Istanbul society.
His views are not shared in conservative parts of the city,
however. End comment.


8. (SBU) Bio Note. Born June 6, 1926, Inonu received a PhD
in physics from California Institute of Technology, but
entered politics from academia in the 1980s after the
military take-over temporarily sidelined traditional parties
and their leaders. Friends of his father's pursuaded him to
form the Social Democratic People's Party in 1983 in order to
to carry on the politics and traditions of the temporarily
banned Republican People's Party of Ataturk. He agreed at
the outset for a period of five years but ended up staying in
politics for 13 years, serving as deputy prime minister
1991-1993. Local papers on April 10 indicated Inonu would
seek treatment in the United States for leukemia.
JONES