CHP - DRIVE TO PREVENT ERDOGAN PRESIDENCY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 002174

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: CHP - DRIVE TO PREVENT ERDOGAN PRESIDENCY

REF: A. ANKARA 6723


B. ISTANBUL 2169

Classified By: CG Deborah K. Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. People's Republican Party (CHP) Istanbul
Chairman Sinasi Oktem told us December 20 that Prime Minister
Erdogan could not "in good conscience" take the prescribed
presidential oath of office and vowed CHP would do everything
possible to prevent that from happening -- unless "you (i.e.,
the U.S.) save him." Accusing the U.S. of causing 60 deaths
a day in Iraq, Oktem called for quitting Iraq as soon as
possible. He said the 12-year closure of CHP following the
1980 military coup had a major impact on the party, implying
it was no longer the party founded by Ataturk, while
emphasizing the party's continued commitment to the founding
principles of the Republic as pro-western and
pro-enlightenment, in contrast to the current "feudal trend."
End summary.


"ERDOGAN CAN'T BE PRESIDENT!"
--------------


2. (C) Declaring the CHP firmly against the Prime Minister
or anyone he names as President of Turkey, CHP Istanbul
Branch Chairman Oktem termed defeating this possibility the
party's single-minded goal for the coming months. So far,
the Republic had protected democracy, he asserted; now it is
time for democracy to protect the Republic. Democratic,
secular, pro-western and enlightenment principles must
continue to guide Turkey and PM Erdogan knows he cannot in
good faith and sincerity take the constitutionally-prescribed
oath of office because "he doesn't hold those values." The
CHP aims for elections in April, Oktem continued, because it
was not legitimate for a government elected by only 24% of
eligible voters to name the next president in the final year
of its mandate "just because the rules say so." The press
campaign to get CHP members of parliament to quit en masse in
order to force early elections won't work, he said, because
MPs need the permission of the whole of parliament to resign.
(Reftel A) This option is not possible or practical, he
opined, "but we're looking at all the options."


3. (C) Warming to his theme, Oktem said the tool devised
thus far to prevent an Erdogan presidency is "public pressure
through democratic means." On the assumption that 75% of the
public opposes Erdogan's presidency, the plan is to "wake the
sleeping giant" of workers, students and others. CHP is
considering marches, protests and even strikes and road
blocks to bring mass opinion to the streets as a means of
influencing the firmly entrenched AKP. There is no detailed
plan, he said, but if CHP can get the ball rolling, the
social movement could snowball and make it clear to AKP they
could not name the next president. Asked about AKP's alleged
use of precinct workers to energize its base, Oktem said CHP
was open to using any means -- but clearly no other party has
nor claims such an extensive apparatus.


4. (SBU) Those opposing an AKP-inspired presidency could
draw on the "huge public reaction" against an EU accession
process that demeaned Turkey, claimed Oktem. That said, he
acknowledged that CHP's constituency was limited to the
urbanized and educated middle class; the generally, poor,
recent arrivals in cities, even those who'd enriched
themselves through advantageous land deals based on legal
loopholes, remained outside the CHP's electoral sphere. The
party was still looking for ways to draw them in.

CHP: POLICY AND VISION
--------------


5. (C) Asked about CHP's economic policy, Oktem said it was
to reduce unemployment. The question remains whether an
oft-repeated criticism of high unemployment finds traction
among the new urbanites that Oktem acknowledges do not vote
for CHP. On foreign affairs, Oktem advocated a Turkey "equal
to and independent of" all other nations - "not the way
Turkey acted today," he said, clearly alluding to the EU
process. The United States, he declared, must leave Iraq as
soon as possible; the effort there was pointless, useful
neither to the region nor the Iraqi people and causing the
deaths of 60 persons a day. The U.S. should either get fully
involved abroad and solve the problem or else stay away. If
in doubt, the U.S. should never intervene. If the U.S.
wanted to do something truly useful, it should solve the
Palestinian/Israeli conflict.


6. (C) Asked if CHP were still the party of Ataturk's
vision, Oktem offered an unexpected, albeit candid reply.
Describing the party's closure from 1980 until 1992 following

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the military coup, Oktem said significant shifts had taken
place in Turkey during those years. In CHP's first election
after its 1992 reconstitution, it garnered 4.6% of the
national vote. Other Social Democratic parties had formed in
Turkey, some soon fading away, one joining CHP temporarily
and then splitting away again. Though CHP claimed to have an
80-year tradition, the closure and resulting turmoil had made
a major impact on the party. But he said, a "real party" has
existed for at least ten years out of government; AKP had yet
to have this experience -- they would not survive this length
of time out of power as CHP had.


7. (C) Comment. CHP clearly has yet to figure out how to
reach the masses it wants to move in Turkey. On the one
hand, it would welcome votes from those recently arrived
urban dwellers, but is short on vision for reaching them.
Lacking anything vaguely approaching AKP's substantial
electoral machine, the party will find it difficult to
implement a strategy of massive protests ahead of a
presidential vote in parliament, short of crude appeals to
Turks' meaner side of nationalism and prejudice -- an
approach thus far notable for its lack of success. While the
obligatory hot "cay" was offered and accepted, it barely
warmed the frost in the room which grew icier with the
discussion of Iraq. Perhaps not knowing how otherwise to
deal with a dominant AKP, rumored to enjoy tacit U.S.
support, CHP leadership, in contrast to the leanings of some
of its maverick sons (reftel B),has chosen to exploit the
demonizing myths of American omniscience and ill intent.
KUEHL