A BITTER DAY: THE SEVENTH ANNIVERSARY OF THE 1999

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 001501

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID CASC TU
SUBJECT: A BITTER DAY: THE SEVENTH ANNIVERSARY OF THE 1999
EARTHQUAKE

REF: A. 03 ISTANBUL 1039

B. ANKARA 3436


1. (SBU) Summary: On August 17, the seventh anniversary of
the deadly 1999 Marmara earthquake,
newspapers published articles evaluating ongoing efforts,
especially in Istanbul, to prepare
for the next big quake. The commentators unanimously
criticized insufficient preparations and
planning and the slow speed at which retrofitting and
reconstruction of buildings has occurred.
Echoing our previous observations (refs A & B),a major
obstacle cited by experts in the articles
was the lack of clear leadership or responsibility, as well
as the lack of well-defined
short-term, medium-term, and long-term plans.


"We Will Never Forget, We Can Never Forget"
--------------


2. (SBU) Most newspapers on August 17 ran articles on the 7th
anniversary of the 7.4-magnitude
Marmara earthquake, which killed more than 17,000 and left
countless more injured. Although
some had articles in commemoration of the actual event, the
primary focus was the state of
current earthquake mitigation and response measures taken by
the government. Commentators
were unanimously critical of Turkey's, and particularly
Istanbul's, state of preparedness.


The Experts Weigh In On Current Preparations: No Good News
-------------- --------------


3. (SBU) Several of the newspapers interviewed experts in
earthquake planning, engineering,
and other related fields. More than a few of the experts
lambasted Turkey's latest "9th
Development Plan" for the years 2007-2013, which reportedly
does not address the earthquake
issue. "It is impossible to understand the exclusion of a
topic so influential to this
country's future," declared Yavuz Tanrisever, the president
of the Istanbul branch of the
Geologic Engineering Association, to Milliyet. Ismet Cengiz,
TMMOB Geologic Engineering
Association Administration President, told Radikal that if a
7.5-magnitude earthquake occurs
with an epicenter in Istanbul, 30,000 buildings will be
totally destroyed, 40,000 buildings
will be heavily damaged, 50,000 people will die, and there
could be at least fifty billion
dollars worth of damage.


4. (SBU) Radikal not only elicited commentator's criticisms
of current planning, but
also evaluated preparation in Istanbul's public buildings. It
noted that following
the 1999 earthquake a determination was made that 2,473
public buildings would need to
be retrofitted against earthquakes or demolished and rebuilt
entirely. These included 308
medical buildings, 1,783 schools, 68 administration
buildings, 27 social services buildings,
and 46 student dormitories. Over the past seven years, of the
308 hospital buildings only
11 have been retrofitted, while only 326 schools have been
retrofitted, a mere five dormitories
have been retrofitted, and projects for making security and
administrative offices
earthquake-prepared are still in the early stages. Radikal
noted that if the current pace continues,
it would take 190 years to outfit the hospital buildings, 31
years to finish the schools, and
55 years to complete the dormitories.


5. (SBU) Not only did the newspapers criticize the lack of
effort over the past seven years,
but also pointed out that the probability of a large
earthquake has only increased in the years
following the 1999 disaster. "In 1999, the probability of a
large earthquake in Istanbul in the next
30 years was 60%," Dr. Haluk Sucuoglu noted to Sabah. "Since
we haven't had an earthquake in
seven years, now this probability has increased."

Where's the Money?
--------------


6. (SBU) Clearly money is a large factor in the seemingly
slow response of government.
One figure cited was 4.2 billion YTL (approximately USD 2.9
billion) for the study of
public buildings, evaluation of security, preparations for
the retrofitting of buildings,
and the construction of materials for the retrofitting
projects. Somewhat more disturbing
was Milliyet's reporting that a significant portion of the
"earthquake tax" to help rebuild
and prepare for future disasters has been instead used to pay
off Turkey's debt and interest
payments. According to statistics cited by the paper, in
2003, 1.423 quadrillion old
Turkish Lira (approximately USD 988 million) was collected
and 1.043 quadrillion
(approximately USD 723 million) was used to pay off debt and
interest rather than
for its expressed purpose.
Authorities' Response: Newspapers Not Favorable
-------------- --

7. (SBU) The newspapers focused intently on expert criticism
and did not attempt to put
official replies in a good light. Istanbul Governor Muammer
Guler gave a press conference
on August 16 and reportedly responded that "nowhere in the
world can this job be finished
in three to five years." Mustafa Taymaz, head of the Disaster
Relief Administration, was
quoted as saying that the "infrastructure was ready" and that
disaster administration was
"better than in the U.S. and in some EU countries," but that
it was "not right for citizens
to wait for the government." "If necessary, citizens can
obtain credit and strengthen their
buildings themselves." Radikal commented that the government
was "passing the ball to citizens,"
implying that officials were not taking responsibility for
earthquake preparations. A headline
also read "Everyone is busy with state 'projects' to
strengthen buildings," detailing the
numerous unrealized projects which have solved the earthquake
problem "on paper."

Comment
--------------


8. (SBU) Overall, the newspapers focused on current
earthquake preparations and their
conclusions were not positive. Sucuoglu commented to Sabah
that "had the 1999 earthquake
been taken as a good warning for Istanbul, the necessary
preparations could have been
done in seven years." Whether this timeframe is accurate or
not, retrofitting efforts have
been disappointingly slow. The lack of ownership of this
issue has been a major obstacle to
effective preparations (refs A & B). One expert advised that
the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality
office needs to unequivocally take charge and create a plan
with short-term (three to five year),
medium-term (10 year),and long-term (25 to 30 year) goals.
Despite the somewhat alarming picture
painted by the media and local experts, efforts by the GOT at
all levels are ongoing. The cooperative
effort with the USGS that began in 1999 continues with a team
from USGS currently in Istanbul.
Media scrutiny of earthquake preparations may also serve to
spur the government to greater action.
OUDKIRK