Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ISLAMABAD9710
2006-05-26 01:37:00
SECRET
Embassy Islamabad
Cable title:  

FATA OPERATIONS SINCE JULY 7TH: A MIXED BAG

Tags:  PGOV PTER MOPS MARR PK 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RUEHAH/AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT PRIORITY 0612
RUEHEK/AMEMBASSY BISHKEK PRIORITY 3645
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RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA PRIORITY 1500
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE PRIORITY
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 5389
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RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE PRIORITY 8858
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY 6713
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 009710 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2016
TAGS: PGOV PTER MOPS MARR PK
SUBJECT: FATA OPERATIONS SINCE JULY 7TH: A MIXED BAG

REF: A. (A) ISLAMABAD 008541

B. (B) ISLAMABAD 03985

C. (C) PESHAWAR 0122

D. (D) PESHAWAR 00498

Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 009710

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2016
TAGS: PGOV PTER MOPS MARR PK
SUBJECT: FATA OPERATIONS SINCE JULY 7TH: A MIXED BAG

REF: A. (A) ISLAMABAD 008541

B. (B) ISLAMABAD 03985

C. (C) PESHAWAR 0122

D. (D) PESHAWAR 00498

Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (U) This is the second in a series of four cables
assessing the GOP's progress in its crackdown on extremism.


2. (S) Summary. In the aftermath of the July 7, 2005 bombings
in London, President Musharraf made a series of
broad-reaching committments to tackle extremism and terrorism
in Pakistan. One committment was to stabilize the troubled
border regions known as the Federally Administered Tribal
Areas (FATA) through an integrated strategy combining
increased military operations with stronger political
administration and economic development. Implementation of
the overall plan has been slow. The report card for military
operations is mixed, law and order in both North and South
Waziristan continue to deteriorate, despite a hefty troop
presence and increased patrols in the region. The government
appears to be pursuing FATA stabilization and development
with new vigor since March 2006 (ref A); actual progress will
require sustained political will to carry out change and
better management of the strategy, both of which are in
abundance at present. End summary.

Expanded Operations, Uneven Execution
--------------

3. (C) At the direction of President Musharraf and the
Director General Military Operations (DGMO),the Pakistan
Army and Frontier Corps expanded "Operation Al Mizan,"
(originally launched in 2002 as an integrated political,
military, and economic strategy) in the FATA in September

2005. As articulated by the DGMO, the objectives of the
military operations are to "pursue and eliminate terrorists,
deny safehaven, and stabilize the region." To do so, the
military has stationed approximately 35,000 XI Corps troops
and 14,000 Frontier Corps troops in FATA. (Note: GHQ counts
the roughly 28,000 Frontier Corps troops deployed in
Balochistan when they say there are 80,000 troops deployed

along the border. End note.) They have also established 227
border posts, 40-50 mobile checkpoints, and stationed 5
infantry battalions of Quick Reaction Forces (QRFs) (2 in
South Waziristan and 3 in North Waziristan).


4. (S) The 39 operations conducted to date have had varying
degrees of success, due to uneven execution and tactical
mistakes. Overall, they have led to the capture of 124
militants and the death of 324 (including 76 foreign
fighters),according to a GHQ powerpoint presentation passed
to the Embassy. In January 2006, Pakistani military officials
admitted to US military counterparts that their
tactics--repetetive cordon and search operations--were not
working and that improperly integrated operations and
intelligence and equipment/training shortfalls resulted in
several failed operations in late 2005. Pak mil is now
attempting to rectify this situation, and the DGMO has
reported a few successes of late. Raids in January 2006 led
to the apprehension of 13 and the death of 14 "foreign
miscreants," according to the DGMO. In April 2006, military
spokesmen announced the probable capture or killing of two
high value targets in separate operations:

--Muhsin Musa Matawai, an Egyptian national wanted for
involvement in the 1998 East African Embassy bombings,
captured during a raid in North Waziristan, and

--Marwan Hadid-al Suri, a Syrian national reportedly behind
attacks on Pakistani forces and US forces in Eastern
Afghanistan, arrested in Bajaur.

Waziristan: From Bad to Worse in 60 Days

ISLAMABAD 00009710 002 OF 002


--------------

5. (C) Despite unprecedented troop and patrol levels, the
military's control over law and order South Waziristan
remains weak. Militants in South Waziristan--which has been
unstable since troops first entered in 2004--continue to
harbor foreign fighters, nurture militant clerics, and attack
anyone perceived to be "pro-government." Over the past year,
150 pro-government tribesmen (maliks, clerics and others)
have been targeted and killed in South Waziristan (Ref A).


6. (C) Meanwhile, North Waziristan deteriorated rapidly in
December 2005 and early January 2006, worsened in March 2006,
and remains beyond government control today (ref B). There is
a growing popular perception--reinforced by daily press
reporting--that the violence has reached a point beyond the
government's ability to re-establish authority (refs B and
D). In December 2005 and January 2006, militant
clerics--calling themselves Taliban or students of the
Qu'ran--launched a "law and order" campaign aimed at driving
out the military and imposing their own brand of security in
the region (Ref C). Journalists and government officials
indicate that the clerics--linked to anti-coalition militants
in Afghanistan--have played up collateral civilian casualties
and played on the weakness of the political administration
and tribal leaders to gain public sympathy. Today, some
journalists say the militant clerics have a following of 1500
able to launch daily ambushes, grenade and IED attacks on
military patrols and installations in North Waziristan,
relegating many troops to their barracks. Since August 2005,
56 soldiers in North Waziristan have been killed.

Comment
--------------

7. (S) The absence until now of a comprehensive effort to
establish strong and responsive political control, law and
order, and economic benefits for cooperation mars any
successes the GOP can count from Operation Al Mizan. We have
pressed this point repeatedly with the Pakistani leadership,
and in January, Musharraf began to acknowledge the need for a
major policy overhaul in the tribal areas. The governmetn's
mid-May revelation of a new strategy for the FATA (ref A) is
potentially a major step forward, but the proof will lie in
its implementation.
CROCKER