POLITICAL SCENESETTER FOR GENERAL PACE

S E C R E T ISLAMABAD 004373

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

JCS: PLEASE PASS TO GENERAL PACE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2016
TAGS: EFIN ETTC PK PREL PTER KTFN
SUBJECT: POLITICAL SCENESETTER FOR GENERAL PACE

Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (S) The U.S. Mission in Pakistan warmly welcomes your
planned March 20 - 22 visit to Pakistan. As demonstrated
during President Bush's recent visit to Islamabad, both
President Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz
are western-oriented modernizers who are trying to move
Pakistan toward enlightened moderation. They view the
President's visit as a landmark in the relationship and were
gratified that he decided stay overnight in Pakistan. Energy
Secretary Bodeman's March 13 follow up visit addressing

SIPDIS
Pakistan's concerns about energy was also helpful. Your
visit comes as Pakistan's leaders are working to contain the
fallout from the Danish cartoon controversy, while
simultaneously suppressing violent separatists in
Balochistan, combatting al-Qa'ida and extremists in the
Tribal Areas along the Afghan border and guiding earthquake
recovery operations. The government remains fully engaged in
earthquake recovery operations, with attention turning from
emergency relief toward long-term reconstruction. We are
optimistic that robust USG participation in the earthquake
relief effort will promote more positive public opinion
toward the United States and help us advance key U.S.
objectives, including democratization, regional stability and
progress in the global war on terror. Our mission in
Pakistan remains a critical high-threat post, as demonstrated
by the March 2 bombing at the U.S. Consulate in Karachi that
killed two staff members.

The Cartoon Controversy
--------------


2. (C) Since mid-February, tens of thousands of Pakistani
demonstrators have taken to the streets to protest
the publication of the Danish cartoons. Rallies in Lahore
and Peshawar have been particularly destructive, with rampant
looting and vandalism in parts of downtown Lahore and
Peshawar and six protesters killed. Although more
demonstrations throughout Pakistan followed (including a
widely-observed nationwide strike on the day of President
Bush's arrival),enhanced security measures by the Government
of Pakistan (GOP) has prevented any repetition of the
unrestrained violence of last month. Over time, the protests
have taken on a greater political tone. The outrage against
the Danes and the EU still festers, but opportunistic
politicians have subverted public sentiment in order to
condemn the West as a whole (including the U.S.) and to
embarrass the Musharraf government.


4. (C) Following President Bush's lead, your visit presents
an opportunity to remind the Pakistani people that the United
States understands the sentiments of the Muslim community and
that, while we strongly support freedom of expression, we
also believe the press should behave responsibly. More
broadly, it will be an opportunity to underscore our desire
for warm relations with the Muslim world and a sustained
partnership with Pakistan as it addresses the long-term
challenges of development and the immediate challenge of
earthquake recovery.

Earthquake Relief
--------------


5. (U) The October 8 earthquake (7.6 on the Richter scale) in
Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and the North West Frontier
Province (NWFP) was the strongest to hit the region in over a
century. The Government of Pakistan (GOP) estimates that
more than 73,000 individuals died in the quake, with more
than 69,000 wounded and some 2.8 million survivors left
homeless. The United States has been Pakistan's most visible
international partner in delivering emergency relief over the
last five months.


6. (U) The U.S. military has been on the ground since
October 10. At the peak of initial relief efforts, more than
1,200 personnel and 24 helicopters provided vital transport,
logistics and medical and engineering support in affected
areas. As the emergency relief phase is coming to an end, we
have closed the two U.S. military hospitals, turning over
much of the medical equipment to Pakistani counterparts. Our
Seabee unit has also departed Muzaffarabad, leaving behind 25
pieces of heavy construction equipment as a donation to
Pakistani military engineering units. U.S. airlift
operations will be phased out in late March.


7. (U) The U.S. military and USAID collaborated closely on
the civilian relief effort, with the military providing
logistics and USAID working with NGOs to deliver supplies and
services in camps and villages. USAID has provided more than
USD 60 million in additional humanitarian assistance through
NGOs and the United Nations, including blankets, tents,
plastic sheeting and shelter kits to help the affected
population make it through the harsh Himalayan winter. USAID
recently made its first reconstruction grant of USD 15
million to rebuild schools and hospitals. In total, the USG
has pledged $510 million for earthquake relief and
reconstruction efforts. The U.S. private sector is also
engaged. A consortium of CEOs (GE, Pfizer, Citigroup, Xerox
and UPS) is spearheading the South Asia Earthquake Relief
Fund, which has already attracted approximately $24 million.


8. (C) Our prompt and generous response is shifting
Pakistani attitudes about the United States, qualitatively
improving bilateral relations and sustaining the relationship

during popular unrest. The hand-in-glove cooperation between
U.S. and Pakistani military personnel has palpably reduced
suspicions at the middle and upper ranks of the Pakistani
army. As we have drawn down our military presence, we have
emphasized that our transition is in parallel with the shift
from emergency relief toward the civilian reconstruction
phase of the recovery effort. Pakistanis, who have long been
convinced that we are fair-weather friends, are beginning to
understand that we are interested in a long-term
relationship.

Democratization
--------------


9. (C) President Musharraf has committed - publicly and
privately - to move Pakistan toward a civilian-led democracy
by the next national elections, which must be held by 2007.
U.S. visitors should remind their Pakistani interlocutors
(particularly those in the military) of the importance our
elected leaders - including President Bush and members of
Congress - attach to this transition. The government must
address significant organizational issues before the 2007
national elections, not least of which is an empowered and
well-trained election commission. As a first step, we have
urged President Musharraf to appoint a permanent, independent
Chief Election Commissioner who is acceptable to all
mainstream parties. When engaging Pakistani contacts, U.S.
officials should reinforce the need for civilian control of
the military and for the military's full and permanent
disengagement from electoral politics. At the operational
level, USAID supports democratization efforts with programs
to promote institutional development of the courts, the
legislatures, and the political parties.

Afghanistan
--------------


10. (S) The roller-coaster relationship between Afghanistan
and Pakistan remains susceptible to suspicions and
recriminations on both sides, with Afghans concerned about
cross-border infiltration and Pakistan worried that India is
using assets in Afghanistan to destabilize Balochistan.
President Musharraf, his government and military leaders
recognize that Pakistan must support the Karzai government as
it attempts to solidify its control over the country. To
that end, the Government is committed to cooperating on
operational security matters with the Afghan government and
coalition forces through regular Tripartite Commission
meetings. Over the longer term, President Bush's
announcement of Reconstruction Opportunity Zone trade
benefits could help boost employment opportunities on both
sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.


11. (S) The uptick in Pakistani military-militant clashes in
North and South Waziristan, which began in December 2005 and
surged in early March 2006 in North Waziristan, underscores
Pakistan's difficulty in curbing insurgent activity. Despite
a stated commitment by GOP and Pakistani military officials,
limited resources, rugged terrain, and uneven capability and
support within the Pakistani military, Frontier Corps, and
Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) limit Pakistan's ability to
deliver quick results. We acknowledge the significant
progress Pakistan has made in countering terrorist elements
since September 2001, but we continue to press the GOP to
move forcefully against al-Qa'ida, and more recently, the
Taliban and other anti-Coalition militants (ACMs).

India and Kashmir
--------------


12. (S) President Musharraf and his senior advisors have
consistently told us that they have made a strategic decision
to end the militancy and even Indian officials acknowledge
that the level of violence and cross-border infiltration has
declined (though Delhi attributes this to Indian security
measures). President Musharraf believes the GOP's ability to
control Kashmiri militants will be greatly enhanced if there
is measurable progress with India on Kashmir. He has
specifically pushed for a withdrawal of Indian forces from
key population centers in Indian-administered Kashmir (a
demand viewed with great skepticism in Delhi). Musharraf has
privately signaled
flexibility on final status, but in public remains steadfast
in rejecting the Line of Control (LOC) as a permanent
international boundary. While there has been little progress
on these core issues relating to Kashmir, senior Indian and
Pakistani officials meet regularly through the Composite
Dialogue process, which has produced some confidence-building
measures, including a pre-notification agreement for
ballistic missile launches and the opening of five bus routes
between the two countries.


13. (C) Responding to widespread public opinion, the two
governments agreed to open five new LOC crossing points and
to permit cross-LOC cell phone service following the October
8 earthquake, to allow divided Kashmiri families the
opportunity to comfort one another. These limited measures
are changing the dynamic in Kashmir and may accelerate
internal pressure on Islamabad and Delhi to create additional
space for interaction between Kashmiris in India and Pakistan.


14. (S) India has long resisted the involvement of third
parties in settling the Kashmir issue, and Pakistani leaders
understand that any move toward a direct mediating role by
the U.S. would be counterproductive. President Musharraf was
pleased by President Bush's even-handed statements about the
need for good relations between India and Pakistan and for a
peaceful and mutually agreeable solution in Kashmir.

Global War on Terrorism
--------------


15. (S) Pakistan deserves commendation for standing with us
in the global war on terror, including its efforts against
al-Qa'ida and its forceful -- though so far unsuccessful --
efforts to deny safe haven to extremist elements in
Pakistan's untamed Tribal Areas along the Afghan border.
Following the GOP's decision to extend central government
control into the Tribal Areas (historically a "no go" region
for the GOP),we have regularly encouraged Pakistani security
forces to stay the course in the face of armed resistance.
The Pakistan military has suffered over 1,000 casualties in
the Tribal areas, with particularly heavy fighting during the
days surrounding President Bush's visit. In recent months,
the security situation, especially in Waziristan, has
deteriorated, forcing the GOP to rethink its strategy.
Musharraf has articulated a three-pronged approach comprising
political initiatives, economic development and military
operations that are faster, leaner and more targeted than in
the past. We have offered to assist Pakistan's economic
development efforts in the Tribal Areas and to provide the
Pakistani military training on rapid strike capabilities as
it realigns its military tactics.


16. (C) In the aftermath of the July 7 London bombings,
President Musharraf cracked down on terrorist/extremist
organizations in Pakistan to much public fanfare. We have
reserved judgment on whether the President has the will to
hold the line against Pakistan's extremist elements for the
long run. Initial law enforcement actions targeted the usual
suspects -- conservative clerics and Islamist politicians --
prompting a strong popular backlash, with conservatives
decrying the focus on Islamists. Ultimately, the government
released most detainees and watered down regulations intended
to shine light on madrassa operations. We have repeatedly
pressed senior GOP officials to act decisively against the
operational leaders of key terrorist and extremist groups.
We have also encouraged GOP officials to take action against
madrassas that support, recruit for, or shelter these
organizations.

Balochistan
--------------


17. (S) Pakistani leaders are also struggling to cope with
an insurgency in the resource-rich province of Balochistan,
as local Baloch tribesmen seek to redress historic grievances
against Pakistan and seize a greater share of their
provincial patrimony. President Musharraf has swung back and
forth between civilian advisors who are counseling caution
and a negotiated settlement that addresses Baloch concerns,
and military advisors who view the insurgency as an
Indian-sponsored threat to national unity to be suppressed.
To date, the pendulum appears to have swung toward the
military option. This has clear implications for the
military's ability to pursue shared U.S.-Pakistan objectives
in the Tribal Areas and in the war on terror. The Pakistani
military is already overstretched along its western borders,
in North and South Waziristan, in earthquake relief and in
managing domestic unrest over the cartoons. Moreover an
escalation in armed conflict in Balochistan would create an
inauspicious political environment in the run-up to national
elections next year.

CROCKER