POLITICAL SCENESETTER FOR PM - A/S JOHN HILLEN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 ISLAMABAD 003807

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2016
TAGS: KDEM MARR MASS MOPS PGOV PK PREL PTER
SUBJECT: POLITICAL SCENESETTER FOR PM - A/S JOHN HILLEN

REF: STATE 36300

Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (S) The U.S. Mission in Pakistan warmly welcomes your
planned March 15 - 18 visit to Pakistan. As demonstrated
during President Bush's recent visit to Islamabad, both
President Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz
are western-oriented modernizers who are trying to move
Pakistan toward Musharraf's goal of "enlightened moderation."
They viewed the President's visit as a landmark in the
relationship and were gratified that he decided stay
overnight in Pakistan. Your visit comes as Pakistan's
leaders are trying to contain the fallout from the Danish
cartoon controversy, while simultaneously suppressing violent
separatists in Balochistan, combating al-Qa'ida and
extremists in the Tribal Areas along the Afghan border and
guiding earthquake recovery operations. The government
remains fully engaged in earthquake recovery operations, with
attention turning from emergency relief toward long-term
reconstruction. Robust USG participation in the earthquake
relief effort will help promote a more positive public
perception of the United States in what has long been a tough
public diplomacy environment, helping us advance key U.S.
objectives, including democratization, regional stability and
progress in the global war on terror.

The Cartoon Controversy
--------------


2. (C) Over the past month, tens of thousands of Pakistani
demonstrators have taken to the streets to protest
the publication of the Danish cartoons. Early rallies in
Lahore and Peshawar were particularly destructive, with
rampant looting and vandalism in parts of downtown Lahore and
Peshawar and six protesters killed. Although more
demonstrations throughout Pakistan followed (including a
widely-observed nationwide strike on the day of President
Bush's arrival),enhanced security measures by the Government
of Pakistan (GOP) has prevented any repetition of the
unrestrained violence seen in February. Over time, the
protests have taken on a greater political tone. The outrage
against the Danes and the EU still festers, but opportunistic
politicians have attempted to subvert public sentiment in
order to condemn the West as a whole (including the U.S.) and
to embarrass the Musharraf government.


3. (C) Following President Bush's lead, your visit presents
an opportunity to remind the Pakistani people that the United
States understands the sentiments of the Muslim community and
that, while we strongly support freedom of expression, we
also believe the press should behave responsibly. More
broadly, it will be an opportunity to underscore our desire
for warm relations with the Muslim world and a sustained
partnership with Pakistan as it addresses the long-term
challenges of development and the immediate challenge of
earthquake recovery.

Earthquake Relief
--------------


4. (U) The October 8 earthquake (7.6 on the Richter scale) in
Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and the North West Frontier
Province (NWFP) was the strongest to hit the region in over a
century. The GOP estimates that more than 73,000 individuals
died in the quake, with more than 69,000 wounded and some 2.8
million survivors left homeless. The United States has been
Pakistan's most visible international partner in delivering
emergency relief over the last two months.


5. (U) The U.S. military has been on the ground since
October 10. At the peak of initial relief efforts, more than
1,200 personnel and 24 helicopters provided vital transport,
logistics and medical and engineering support in affected
areas. As the emergency relief phase is coming to an end, we
have closed the two U.S. military hospitals, turning over USD
2.5 million in medical equipment to Pakistani counterparts.
Our Seabee unit has also departed Muzaffarabad, leaving
behind 25 pieces of heavy construction equipment as a
donation to Pakistani military engineering units. U.S.
airlift operations will be phased out in late March.


6. (U) The U.S. military and USAID collaborated closely on
the civilian relief effort, with the military providing
logistics and USAID working with NGOs to deliver supplies and
services in camps and villages. USAID has provided more than
USD 60 million in additional humanitarian assistance through
NGOs and the United Nations, including blankets, tents,
plastic sheeting and shelter kits to help the affected
population make it through the harsh Himalayan winter. USAID
recently made its first reconstruction grant of USD 15

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million to rebuild schools and hospitals. In total, the USG
has pledged USD 510 million for earthquake relief and
reconstruction efforts. The U.S. private sector is also
engaged. A consortium of CEOs (GE, Pfizer, Citigroup, Xerox
and UPS) is spearheading the South Asia Earthquake Relief
Fund, which has already attracted approximately USD 24
million. Independent estimates place total U.S. private
donations at over USD 130 million.


7. (C) Our prompt and generous response has helped initiate
a shift in Pakistani attitudes about the United States,
qualitatively improving bilateral relations at official
levels and sustaining the relationship during popular unrest
surrounding the Danish cartoon controversy. The
hand-in-glove cooperation between U.S. and Pakistani military
personnel has palpably reduced suspicions at the middle and
upper ranks of the Pakistani army. As we have drawn down our
military presence, we have emphasized that our transition
parallels the overall shift from emergency relief toward the
civilian reconstruction phase of the recovery effort.
Pakistanis, who have long been convinced that we are
fair-weather friends, are beginning to understand that we are
interested in a long-term relationship.

Democratization
--------------


8. (C) President Musharraf has committed - publicly and
privately - to move Pakistan toward a civilian-led democracy
by the next national elections, which must be held by 2007.
U.S. visitors should remind their Pakistani interlocutors
(particularly those in the military) of the importance our
elected leaders - including President Bush and members of
Congress - attach to this transition. The government must
address significant organizational issues before the 2007
national elections, not least of which is an empowered and
well-trained election commission. As a first step, we have
urged President Musharraf to appoint a permanent, independent
Chief Election Commissioner who is acceptable to all
mainstream parties. When engaging Pakistani contacts, U.S.
officials should reinforce the need for civilian control of
the military and for the military's full and permanent
disengagement from electoral politics. At the operational
level, USAID supports democratization efforts with programs
to promote institutional development of the courts, the
legislatures, and the political parties.

Afghanistan
--------------


9. (S) The roller-coaster relationship between Afghanistan
and Pakistan continues to suffer from mutual suspicion and
recrimination, with Afghans concerned about cross-border
infiltration and Pakistan worried that India is using its
assets in Afghanistan to destabilize Balochistan. President
Musharraf, his government and military leaders recognize that
Pakistan must support the Karzai government as it attempts to
solidify its control over the country. To that end, the
Government is committed to cooperating on operational
security matters with the Afghan government and coalition
forces through regular Tripartite Commission meetings.


10. (S) As illustrated by the recent heavy fighting in North
and South Waziristan, Pakistan is struggling to curb
insurgent activity, challenged by rugged terrain, Pakistan
border security forces' limited resources and sometimes
uneven support within the Pakistani military, Inter-Services
Intelligence (ISI) and the Frontier Corps. The greatest
hurdle is the Government's lack of a coherent strategy in the
Tribal Areas along the Afghan border. We consistently press
the GOP to move forcefully against al-Qaida, Taliban and
other anti-coalition militants, while simultaneously
acknowledging the significant progress Pakistan has made in
countering terrorist elements since September 2001. The
recent military operations initiated in North Waziristan by
Pakistan's Special Services Group, supported by Pakistan Army
Aviation and 11th Corps assets, marks a new level of
commitment commensurate with America expectations. For the
first time since 2001, the Pakistan military may clearly see
the challenge to sovereignty posed by foreign militants who
have been allowed sanctuary in the Tribal Areas.

India and Kashmir
--------------


11. (S) President Musharraf and his senior advisors have
consistently told us that they have made a strategic decision
to end the militancy and even Indian officials acknowledge
that the level of violence and cross-border infiltration has
declined (though New Delhi attributes this to Indian security
measures). President Musharraf believes the GOP's ability to

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control Kashmiri militants will be greatly enhanced if there
is measurable progress with India on Kashmir. He has
specifically pushed for a withdrawal of Indian forces from
key population centers in Indian-administered Kashmir (a
demand viewed with great skepticism in Delhi). Musharraf has
privately signaled
flexibility on final status of Kashmir, but in public remains
steadfast in rejecting the Line of Control (LOC) as a
permanent international boundary. While there has been
little progress on these core issues relating to Kashmir,
senior Indian and Pakistani officials meet regularly through
the Composite Dialogue process, which has produced some
confidence-building measures, including a pre-notification
agreement for ballistic missile launches and the opening of
five bus routes between the two countries.


12. (C) Responding to widespread public opinion, the two
governments agreed to open five new LOC crossing points and
to permit cross-LOC cell phone service following the October
8 earthquake, to allow divided Kashmiri families the
opportunity to comfort one another. These limited measures
have the potential to changes the dynamic in Kashmir and may
accelerate internal pressure on Islamabad and New Delhi to
create additional space for interaction between Kashmiris in
India and Pakistan.


13. (S) India has long resisted the involvement of third
parties in settling the Kashmir issue, and Pakistani leaders
understand that any move toward a direct mediating role by
the U.S. would be counterproductive. President Musharraf was
pleased by President Bush's even-handed statements about the
need for good relations between India and Pakistan and for a
peaceful and mutually agreeable solution in Kashmir.

Global War on Terrorism
--------------


14. (S) Pakistan deserves commendation for standing with us
in the global war on terror, including its efforts against
al-Qaida to deny safe haven to extremist elements in
Pakistan's untamed Tribal Areas along the Afghan border.
Following the GOP's decision to extend central government
control into the Tribal Areas (historically a "no go" region
for government forces),we have regularly encouraged
Pakistani security forces to stay the course in the face of
armed resistance. The Pakistan military has suffered over
1000 casualties in the Tribal areas, with particularly heavy
fighting in the first week of March, when militants occupied
a key town in North Waziristan. In recent months, the
security situation, especially in Waziristan, has
deteriorated, forcing the GOP to rethink its strategy.
Musharraf has articulated a three-pronged approach comprising
political initiatives, economic development and military
operations that are faster, leaner and more targeted than in
the past. We have offered to assist Pakistan's economic
development efforts in the Tribal Areas and to provide
training and rapid strike capabilities as it realigns its
military tactics.


15. (C) In the aftermath of the July 7 London bombings,
President Musharraf cracked down on terrorist/extremist
organizations in Pakistan to much public fanfare. We have
reserved judgment on whether the President has the will to
hold the line against Pakistan's extremist elements for the
long run. Initial law enforcement actions targeted the usual
suspects -- conservative clerics and Islamist politicians --
prompting a strong popular backlash, with conservatives
decrying the focus on Islamists. Ultimately, the government
released most detainees and watered down regulations intended
to provide transparency on madrassa operations. We have
repeatedly pressed senior GOP officials to act decisively
against the operational leaders of key terrorist and
extremist groups. We have also encouraged GOP officials to
take action against madrassas that support, recruit for or
shelter these
organizations.

Balochistan
--------------


16. (S) Pakistani leaders are also struggling to cope with
an insurgency in the resource-rich province of Balochistan,
as local Baloch tribesmen seek to redress historic grievances
against Pakistan and seize a greater share of their
provincial patrimony. President Musharraf has swung back and
forth between civilian advisors who are counseling caution
and a negotiated settlement that addresses Baloch concerns,
and military advisors who view the insurgency as an
Indian-sponsored threat to national unity to be suppressed.
Currently, the pendulum appears to have swung toward the
military option. This has clear implications for the

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military's ability to pursue shared U.S.-Pakistan objectives
in the Tribal Areas and in the war on terror. Pakistani
security forces are already over-stretched along the Afghan
border, in North and South Waziristan, in earthquake relief
and in managing domestic unrest over the cartoons. An
escalation in armed conflict in Balochistan would create an
inauspicious political environment in the run-up to national
elections next year.

CROCKER