GOP STRATEGY FOR AFGHAN REFUGEES PLAGUED BY DELAYS AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 022440

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT ALSO FOR PRM/ANE
KABUL FOR REFCOORD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2016
TAGS: PREF PGOV AF PK
SUBJECT: GOP STRATEGY FOR AFGHAN REFUGEES PLAGUED BY DELAYS AND
INACTION

REF: ISLAMABAD 21960

Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, per 1.5 (B) and (D).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Pakistan's three-year Afghan refugee strategy
remains stalled at the ministerial level with no firm date for
signature and final approval. The plan hinges on several components:
the registration of Afghan refugees to distinguish between refugees
and migrants; promised camp closures; and Pak-Afghan-UNHCR
cooperation within the Tripartite Agreement. The Government of
Pakistan will need to move quickly if it is to implement the
framework before the beginning of the March 2007 repatriation season.
END SUMMARY

Signing delayed again and again
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2. (SBU) The Government of Pakistan (GOP) has a three-year strategy
for closing Afghan refugee camps and dealing with the 2.4 million
refugees still in Pakistan, but it lacks signatures. The Foreign
Minister and the Ministers of Interior, States and Frontier Regions,
and Ports and Shipping all must sign it, but have not yet done so,
ostensibly because they have been unable to schedule a four-way
meeting. A September date slipped to October, with a postponement to
November. A meeting set for last week was canceled at the last
moment. When the four ministers sign the formal framework, it will
go to Prime Minister Aziz for approval and become the GOP's official
refugee strategy. (The provincial governments have already approved
the plan and have assured Islamabad that they are on board with the
program.)


3. (C) The delay has caused some observers to question the GOP's
true commitment to closing refugee camps and the situation is
frustrating, even for GOP officials. Dr. Zeb Khan, the Commissioner
for Afghan Refugees and the principal drafter of the document, is one
of the GOP officials most committed to the process. He told the
Embassy that he is strongly urging Minister Rind (of States and
Frontier Regions) to ensure the document is signed in time for Rind
to present it to UNHCR in Geneva during a previously scheduled visit
in mid-December. As of today it has not yet been signed.

Registration behind schedule and under-funded
--------------


4. (SBU) The registration of Afghan refugees (those counted in the
2005 census and still resident in Pakistan) picked up steam in the
past several weeks, but not enough to compensate for the initial
weeks of delays due to glitches and growing pains. To date, more
than 841,000 Afghans have been registered, or 35 per cent of the
estimated 2.4 million expected to come forward. The GOP registering
agency (NADRA) and UNCHR both admit that the registration will go
beyond the December 30 deadline, probably through late January 2007.


5. (SBU) Funding for the registrations is USD 2.6 million short of
the required USD six million. In addition to USD one million from
the Department's Bureau of Populations, Refugees and Migration, the
EC promised euros 1.5 million, (half of which has been given so far)
and the UK gave USD 500,000. The GOP's contribution is the 3,500 GOP
employees involved in the exercise. UNHCR is still looking for
additional donations.

Camp closures on track
--------------


6. (C) Currently both central and provincial government contacts
maintain that orderly camp closures will go forward in 2007. At
least four camps, two in Northwest Frontier Province and two in
Balochistan, are slated for closure next year. Residents of closed
camps will either repatriate or request relocation to another camp.
With the significant increase (to USD 60 per person) in the
repatriation cash package, the GOP hopes that many will take it and
return to Afghanistan when the season begins in March.

Tripartite coordination delayed
--------------


7. (C) The tripartite agreement among Pakistan,
Afghanistan, and UNHCR will expire on December 31, but the parties
have agreed in principle to extend it. The next quarterly meeting,
originally set for December, is now scheduled for the second half of
January. The postponement delays critical cooperation and work that
needs to be done and will be useful only to the extent that the GOP
and GOA actually use the time to adequately prepare. One encouraging
result of the November 28 trilateral technical meeting in Islamabad
was that the GOP agreed to share its (unsigned) three-year plan for
camp closures and hoped-for repatriations with the government of

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Afghanistan over the next few weeks, hoping to have a consolidated
plan ready by January.


8. (C) Comment: The GOP at the highest levels continues to say it
is committed to closing refugee camps in the spring and dealing
appropriately with Afghans, both refugees and others, but the
government has failed to take critical steps to move the process
forward. The Embassy continues to press the GOP for action,
specifically to get the overall strategy signed and approved, to work
closely with the GOA, and to prepare for physical camp closures in
the spring.

CROCKER