GOP ARRESTS BALOCH POLITICAL LEADERS TO STOP LONG

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 022365

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PK PREL
SUBJECT: GOP ARRESTS BALOCH POLITICAL LEADERS TO STOP LONG
MARCH

REF: ISLAMABAD 17548

Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


Summary
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1. (U) On November 27, police raided Baloch National Party
(BNP) President Sardar Akhtar Mengal's office and put him
under house arrest. The arrest was the most prominent of a
series that have occurred since the announcement of a "long
march" from Gwadar to Quetta to protest President Musharraf's
policies in Balochistan. Opposition members in the Senate
jointly protested the arrests, but Parliamentary Affairs
Minister Sher Afgan Niazi defended the Government of
Pakistan's (GOP) actions, saying that Mengal had been taken
into custody as a preventive measure, since Mengal's free
movement could harm law and order in Balochistan. The
motivation for the GOP crackdown may be to secure the region
ahead of a 7-9 December President Musharraf visit. The
outcome may be another increase in already high levels of
Baloch anger at the central government. End Summary.

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Mengal's Long March Plan,
Fiery Rally Speech Spark Arrests
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2. (U) On October 29, Baloch National Party President Sardar
Akhtar Mengal announced a "long march" from Gwadar to Quetta
- a distance of approximately 500 miles. The march was
designed to highlight Baloch opposition to GOP policies in
Balochistan, including offensive military operations,
extra-judicial arrests of political activists, disappearances
of Baloch youth, the settlement of non-Baloch in Balochistan,
and the construction of military cantonments. The event also
was viewed as a protest against the late August Pak-Mil
killing of Nawab Bugti. The march had been scheduled to start
in Gwadar on November 30 with a public meeting, and then
proceed north, ending in Quetta on December 11 with a rally
and another public meeting.


3. (C) On November 26, police began arresting district level
BNP leaders as well as a Union Council nazim (mayor) from
Khudzar. On November 27 at approximately 2300, police raided
Mengal's office in Sakraan, near the industrial city of Hub
(just under 100 km west of Karachi) and placed him under
house arrest. The arrest occurred after Mengal's appearance
earlier that day at a public rally in Hub, where he
reportedly criticized the government and vowed to lay down
his life for the Baloch people. Since then, arrests have
occurred in virtually all areas of the Baloch belt of the
province, including Gwadar, Hub, Khuzdar, Turbat, Kharan,
Kallat, Chaghai, and Noshki. Embassy contacts report that
that the police targeted BNP leaders who lived along the
planned march route. They estimate that between 200 and 500
have either been put under house arrest or brought to police
lockups. The provincial government has also imposed Section
144 of the Code of Criminal Procedure, which prohibits
assemblies of five or more people, public meetings, and the
carrying of firearms.


4. (C) On November 30, Mengal's supporters turned out in
small groups at the march's start point in Gwadar, but spent
most of the day running from place to place to avoid the
police. The march never gelled, and an Embassy contact
reported that another 88 people were arrested. On December
1, police in Quetta fired teargas at 1,500 to 2,000 students
who demonstrated against Mengal's arrest. The students
blocked roads and burned two buses and three cars during the
demonstration.

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Long March Not a Sign of Baloch Unity,
Arrests Unlikely to Crystallize Resistance
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5. (C) While billed as an all-Balochistan event, preparations
belied the long march as an attempt to shore up support for
Mengal's BNP. Mengal left out many Baloch leaders with whom
he could have found common cause, and he did not include in
the planning process people who disagreed with his policies
and politics. Furthermore, there was no plan to march
through any Pashtun majority areas in Balochistan. One
Quetta-based reporter told post that "Mengal is making a big
mistake. In such a movement, political leaders should forget
their petty differences and concentrate on the real issue,
which is to get more rights for the Balochi people. Leaving
out like-minded political opponents was a foolish approach."

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Balochistans Supporters in Islamabad
Want Moderation in Balochistan Policies
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6. (C) Post contacts worry that the latest government
crackdown in Balochistan will further alienate the province
from the center. On December 1, Pakistan Muslim League (PML)
Secretary General Senator Mushahid Hussain Sayed told PolOffs

SIPDIS
that he has been advising Musharraf that Balochistan needs a
"healing touch" and a "change of course." Even though
Musharraf told Sayed that he agrees with 27 of the 31
recommendations made in the Parliamentary Committee's Report
on Balochistan (reftel),President Musharraf has yet to "cut
through the red tape" to get the recommendations implemented,
Sayed said. Sayed expected the report's implementation
status to be discussed during a December 4 meeting of the PML
Central Executive Committee, but the media later reported on
the frustration of some PML leaders at its conspicuous
absence from the agenda.

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Arrests SOP for GOP Ahead of Musharraf Visit to Quetta
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7. (C) Comment: While the arrest of BNP leaders and the
attempts to disrupt the long march may be related to securing
the area in preparation for President Musharraf's December
7-9 visit, such actions ultimately add to the Baloch's
already long list of grievances. Mengal's arrest and the
accompanying police crackdown are prominent additions to a
growing list of grievances the Baloch hold against the GOP's
Balochistan policies, including arrests, disappearances, and
detentions without trial of Baloch nationalists; military
operations and cantonment construction; refusal to devolve
powers to the provinces; and lack of economic development.
Like the August death of Nawab Akbar Bugti, Mengal's arrest
has given the opposition a common rallying point.
Nevertheless, there is no indication that the GOP's actions
(or lack thereof) are motivating local Baloch leaders to
coordinate their demands for greater provincial autonomy and
protection of human rights. End Comment.
CROCKER