FOREIGN MINISTER'S VIEWS ON PAK-AFG JIRGAS, BAJAUR

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 022046

SIPDIS

NOFORN
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2016
TAGS: AF IN PGOV PK PREL PTER
SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER'S VIEWS ON PAK-AFG JIRGAS, BAJAUR
STRIKE AND COMPOSITE DIALOGUE

REF: A. KABUL 5270

B. KABUL 5154

C. ISLAMABAD 21223

D. ISLAMABAD 21075

Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: In a November 2 meeting with the
Ambassador, Foreign Minister Kasuri reaffirmed Pakistan's
commitment to hold a jirga as discussed at the September 27
trilateral iftar at the White House, but noted that
Pakistan's vision for the event is limited to the tribal
areas along the Pak-Afghan border. Kasuri said that he will
review jirga planning with Afghan Foreign Minister Spanta
when the two meet in early December, after Government of
Pakistan (GOP) offices have held interagency consultations.
Turning to the Pakistan military strike against a
madrassa/militant training camp in Bajaur Agency, FM Kasuri
said he has urged the GOP to be as transparent as possible to
allay public outrage. Kasuri explained that his public
remarks regarding the resolution Siachen Glacier dispute were
geared to a Pakistan audience which is growing increasingly
skeptical that the process can produce any significant
results. The Foreign Minister described Pakistani
expectations for the counter-terrorism mechanism announced at
the September meeting of President Musharraf and PM Manmohan
Singh in Havana and expressed the GOP's frustration over the
decision of a Lahore high Court judge to order the release of
Lashkar-e-Tayyba/Jamaat ud-Dawa (LeT/JuD) leader Hafiz Saeed.
Kasuri advised the U.S. to engage Iran on its nuclear
program, noting that the Iranian public remains well-disposed
toward the U.S. On domestic matters, the Minister fretted
over the coming parliamentary debate on the Hudood Ordinance
amendments. End summary.

Pak and Afghan Jirgas and Bilateral Engagement


2. (C) The Ambassador sought FM Kasuri's perspective on the
Pakistan and Afghanistan jirgas which had been endorsed by
Presidents Musharraf and Karzai during their September 27
meeting with President Bush. Kasuri responded by describing
his telephone conversation during Eid-al-Fitr with Afghan FM
Spanta. After Spanta had described the broad array of
participants from across Afghanistan that Kabul wished to
include it its jirga, Kasuri politely reminded his colleague
that the jirga concept discussed at the White House had
focused on the common geographic areas in which the expanding
Taliban militancy challenged both governments -- i.e., the
Tribal Belt along the Pak-Afghan border. The purpose of
these jirgas is to restore peace and security to these areas
and to bring local peoples into harmony with their respective
national governments. The expanded national jirga currently
under discussion in Kabul (Ref A and B) is simply not
possible or appropriate in Pakistan, where the jirga process
is not part of the national culture beyond the traditions of
the Pashtun and Baloch tribes. FM Kasuri told the Ambassador
that Spanta accepted this argument, and also agreed with
Kasuri's assessment that both the GOP and GOA organizing a
tribal jirga is a tricky business. As neither Kasuri (a
Punjabi) nor Spanta (a Herati) nor their Ministry advisors
have expertise on this Pashtun tradition, they should be
guided by their respective experts and then discuss
modalities at their upcoming meeting in Kabul in early
December. Although Kasuri expected to have productive
discussion with Spanta, he cautioned that he could not now
guarantee that the GOP would be ready to set a date for the
jirga before or at the December meeting in Kabul.


3. (C) Kasuri was notably more relating his conversation
with Spanta than he was on the subject of the UNAMA non-paper
describing the Afghan jirga, describing it as little more
than a public relations exercise for the benefit of Westerner
donors. If you bring everyone in Afghanistan under one tent,
he said, you will so expand the agenda as to preclude

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meaningful progress on priority issues. Better to keep the
focus on the tribal members on both sides of the border who
are directly affected by the immediate security threat caused
by the Taliban resurgence. FM Kasuri was receptive with the
Ambassador suggested direct working-level interaction between
Pakistani and Afghan jirga planners before the December
Ministerial, so that both sides could explain their goals and
constraints before each capital's preparations advance and
solidify. (Note: Post has since followed up with MFA
officials to urge a definite timeline for the GOP's internal
interagency planning sessions, followed by direct exchanges
with Afghan counterparts. End note.)


4. (C) Moving beyond the jirgas, FM Kasuri emphasized that
the GOP wants to expand bilateral interaction with
Afghanistan at all levels. Kasuri said that he is eager to
see Spanta, and would do so sooner but for the heavy schedule
of international visitors arriving in Islamabad in the next
month. the Foreign Minister noted that the GOP will host the
Speaker of the Parliament Qanooni (sp?) in December and that
discussions are underway for visits by representatives of
Afghanistan's Uzbek community.

Domestic Fall-out over Bajaur Strike


5. (C) The Foreign Minster noted that he had been fielding
calls all week from worried political workers anxious over
the negative voter reaction to the military's October 30 air
strike that killed 80-some alleged militants at a Bajaur
Agency madrassa. Kasuri said that he has urged his
colleagues in the government to release as much information
as possible on the individuals who were killed and the
evidence behind the targeting, as rumors -- that the majority
of the dead were children, that the madrassa was actually hit
by a U.S. Predator, etc. -- were rapidly gaining currency
amongst the public. The Ambassador noted that Pakistani
military has clearly stated the rationale for the strike and
accepted responsibility for the outcome, and that President
Musharraf has flatly stated that the government was correct
in authorizing the strike and would do so again if similar
circumstances arise. Observing that the GOP has demonstrated
a willingness to enter negotiations with tribal leaders to
restore peace and security to their regions, the Ambassador
noted that the Bajaur strike sent a clear message to Taliban
and other extremist elements in the Federally Administered
Tribal Areas (FATA) that the government will not turn a blind
eye to their militant activities.

Indo-Pak Composite Dialogue


6. (S) In response to the Ambassador's questions about
recent optimistic headlines on the Siachen Glacier dispute,
the Foreign Minister admitted that he felt he had to project
a positive attitude to generate public support before the
Foreign Secretaries meeting in New Delhi on 14-15 November.
The truth is, Kasuri confided, the Indians have agreed to the
fundamentals of a Siachen withdrawal -- but there objections
from the Indian defense establishment is blocking final
signature. Kasuri said that, when asked by the Press Trust
of India (PTI) about likely deliverables should PM Manmohan
Singh visit Pakistan, he hinted at a Siachen resolution; when
the interview ran, PTI dropped his qualifying statements.
(Note: Kashuri appears unaware that his remarks on Siachen
produced any negative reaction amongst the Indian leadership.
End note.) Regardless of the press kerfluffle, Kasuri
believes that the Foreign Secretaries should work on making
the Singh visit a reality.


7. (C) Kasuri observed that domestic political concerns
prompt Indian leaders to maintain a steady public line of "no
progress" in the normalization talks with Pakistan, while he
faces the opposite imperative to assure a skeptical Pakistani
public that the Composite Dialogue progress is producing
tangible results. Noting that he is increasingly concerned

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that even liberal Pakistanis -- long the most vocal
constituency for engagement with India -- are dismissing the
Composite Dialogue as a waste of time.


8. (C) On the counter-terrorism mechanism concept that
emerged from the September Musharraf-Singh meeting in Havana,
FM Kasuri said that the Foreign Secretaries will discuss the
modalities at the New Delhi meeting.

Counter- Terrorism, Domestic Extremism and Hudood Ordinance
Amendments


9. (C) The Ambassador thanked the Foreign Minister for the
MFA's quick action following the discovery that Pakistan
Television had run advertising for al-Rashid Trust (ART),a
charitable organization under UN 1267 Committee sanctions for
terror finance activity. (Note: Having been alerted to the
ART ads, MFA officers immediately coordinated with the
Information Ministry to ensure that all private and public
broadcasters are on notice not to accept business from 1267
Committee sanctioned entities. End note.) The Ambassador
also raised the decision of a Lahore High Court judge to
release LeT/JeD leader Hafiz Mohammad Saeed from detention.
Kasuri noted that President Musharraf was quite angry over
the court's action and that the GOP intended to re-arrest
Saeed on other security-related grounds. The Ambassador
urged that the GOP target LeT/JuD leadership broadly, as the
organization is expanding its reach to Afghanistan. The
Minister also tasked his staff to confirm the status of the
Anti-Money Laundering Bill, which has been languishing in
Parliament for months.


10. (C) When the Ambassador pulsed the Minister on the
prospects for the Women's Protection Bill, the government's
proposed amendments to the repressive Hudood Ordinance,
Kasuri lamented that moving forward with the bill poses
significant risks for the government. The MMA threat to
resign if the bill is passed is serious, leaving many in the
PML-led coalition uneasy. On the other hand, the government
will have betrayed President Musharraf's promise to deliver
amending the most oppressive aspects of the Hudood Ordinance
if it passes a watered-down bill, inviting unrelenting attack
from coalition partner MQM and opposition PPP and public
disapprobation by the international community. The
Ambassador noted that failure to respond resolutely to the
MMA walk-out threat will expose the government as weak and
feckless, leading to a year of prolonged misery in the run-up
to national elections. Kasuri sighed in agreement, before
saying that President Musharraf shared the Ambassador's
assessment that the government should do the right thing and
let the chips fall where they may.

CROCKER