Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ISLAMABAD21224
2006-10-31 10:15:00
SECRET//NOFORN
Embassy Islamabad
Cable title:  

MFA PREVIEWS EXPECTATIONS FOR COMPOSITE DIALOGUE

Tags:  IN PK PREL PTER 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO5018
PP RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHIL #1224/01 3041015
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 311015Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4001
INFO RUEHTA/AMEMBASSY ALMATY PRIORITY 9659
RUEHAH/AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT PRIORITY 1353
RUEHEK/AMEMBASSY BISHKEK PRIORITY 3832
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO PRIORITY 0979
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA PRIORITY 1716
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE PRIORITY
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 6416
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 9576
RUEHNT/AMEMBASSY TASHKENT PRIORITY 2043
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI PRIORITY 3200
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE PRIORITY 0436
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY 8602
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 021224 

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2016
TAGS: IN, PK, PREL, PTER
SUBJECT: MFA PREVIEWS EXPECTATIONS FOR COMPOSITE DIALOGUE

Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 021224

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2016
TAGS: IN, PK, PREL, PTER
SUBJECT: MFA PREVIEWS EXPECTATIONS FOR COMPOSITE DIALOGUE

Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

1. (C) Summary: According to an MFA source, Foreign
Minister Khurshid Kasuri's comments during an Indian
television interview that he expected a breakthrough on the
Siachen Glacier dispute during upcoming Composite Dialogue
meeting were simply intended to generate positive public
atmosphere in advance of the talks. Pointing to strong
Indian constituencies opposed to a Siachen resolution, the
MFA has greater hopes for progress on Sir Creek, peace and
security issues and the mechanism for counter-terrorism
cooperation discussed by President Musharraf and Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh in Havana, as well as a handful of
other lesser deliverables. Jilani confirmed that FM Kasuri
hopes to call on his MEA counterpart during a personal visit
to India scheduled for late November. End summary.

2. (C) In an October 30 conversation, PolCouns asked MFA
Director General (India) Jalil Jilani about headlines in that
morning's papers that FM Kasuri expected a breakthrough on
the Siachen Glacier dispute at the November 14-15 Composite
Dialogue meetings. Jilani explained that the remarks, made
during an interview with an Indian television outlet, were
intended only to generate a positive buzz in the run-up to
the talks. In contrast, Jilani said that he had absolutely
no hope of a Siachen solution in the near term, even though
Islamabad and New Delhi have already sketched the outlines of
a deal. Jilani pointed to strong opposition to a Siachen
resolution amongst the Indian military and defense
establishment as the barrier to a resolution, a hurdle that
PM Manmohan Singh had raised in his Havana meeting with
President Musharraf in mid-September. Singh had told
Musharraf that his military advisors are apprehensive that
Pakistan would re-occupy the heights -- including Indian
posts -- were the sides to withdraw from their current lines.
Musharraf offered his personal assurance that Pakistan would
honor a withdrawal agreement, saying that it would be
foolish to withdraw only to return, particularly as moving
forward to the Indian
posts would leave Pakistani units with
a mountain at their backs, cut off from their supply lines.
Citing a recent book by retired Indian General V.P. Malik --
like Musharraf, a veteran of the Kargil crisis -- Jilani said
that Musharraf's guarantees would not carry any weight for
Singh; the PM would have to have the Indian Army with him to
cut a deal.

3. (C) Jilani was more optimistic on other topics on the
Composite Dialogue agenda, calling resolution of the Sir
Creek dispute "doable," as it lacks the strategic importance
of Siachen; also, both sides are under pressure to resolve
the issue before the 2009 deadline of the UN Convention on
the Law of the Seas. An interagency session later in the day
would review new proposals the GOP could take to New Delhi to
advance a Sir Creek resolution. He said that he has advised
the Indian High Commission that the GOP is ready to sign an
agreement on notification of nuclear accidents, a pact that
had been passed between capitals several times. An agreement
on the modalities for monthly flag meetings of Army sector
commanders, to complement the current quarterly flag meetings
of the Pakistan Rangers and Indian Border Security Forces, is
also within reach. Jilani also identified agreements to
prevent incidents on the high seas and to speed the return of
persons who inadvertently cross the international border as
possible deliverables at the Foreign Secretaries' meeting.
On the other hand, Jilani described issues relating to
Kashmir as within the exclusive confines of the back-channel
dialogue between NSA Tariq Aziz and retired Indian diplomat
S. K. Lamba.

4. (C) Jilani also expects progress on a mechanism for
bilateral counter-terrorism cooperation. He said that the
two sides have agreed that the respective Foreign Offices
will chair the mechanism, which will include representatives
from security and intelligence agencies. Recognizing how
uncomfortable the intelligence agencies were at the prospect

ISLAMABAD 00021224 002 OF 002


of sitting down with their long-time rivals, Jilani said he
used the margins of the Havana meeting to stress to Indian
Foreign Secretary-designate Menon that the mechanism should
begin its work with items that were workable, in order to
build confidence amongst the ISI and RAW representatives. An
Indian request that the GOP investigate Pakistani suspects in
the Mumbai bombing who have been captured on intercepts would
fall into realm of the possible, in Jilani's estimation;
demanding the immediate extradition of Hizb-ul-Mujahideen
leader Syed Salahuddin would not. Jilani acknowledged that
the Indian side might have higher expectations, but
maintained that it was critical to build trust between the
intelligence agencies for the mechanism to succeed.

5. (C) The GOP will also raise several practical matters
affecting the efficacy of previously adopted
confidence-building measures (CBMs). For example, Jilani
noted the low levels of passengers on the Amritsar - Narakana
Sahib bus route, which often transports only 2-3 passengers
per run. The low passenger load led the sides to shelve
plans for a train route originally intended to facilitate the
travel of Sikh pilgrims to Guru Nana's birthplace shrine.
Diplomats from the Pakistani High Commission have
investigated why so many Sikh travelers, having been issued
Pakistani visas, failed to actually make the pilgrimage;
according to Jilani, the Sikhs reported that they had been
denied clearance by local police authorities for travel to
Pakistan.

6. (C) Noting that the Foreign Secretaries will confer on a
convenient date for a Ministerial to conclude this round of
the Composite Dialogue, Jilani confirmed that FM Kasuri
intends to travel to India in late November at the invitation
of his Cambridge classmate Mani Shankar Ayer, and that he
hoped to combine the visit with a call on India's new
External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukerjee. In the interim,
Islamabad will welcome India's new High Commissioner this
week, and expects to have its new envoy in place in New Delhi
by the end of November.

7. (C) Comment: When asked for the MFA's reaction to
Mukerjee's appointment, Jilani paused before offering his
assessment of Mukerjee's predecessors, praising Jaswant Singh
as an outstanding diplomat and voicing respect for the
pragmatism of Yashwant Sinha and political skills of Natwar
Singh. Unfortunately, Jilani concluded, Mukerjee is simply
not in the same class. Jilani also suggested that, during
the bilateral meeting in Havana, Indian diplomats appeared
almost sheepish about the pause in diplomatic exchanges
following the July Mumbai bombings. Jilani shrugged,
explaining that Pakistani officials understood that domestic
political considerations necessitated the time-out after the
terrorist attack. When PolCouns noted Emb New Delhi's
accounts of widespread Indian belief that Pakistan was behind
the plot, Jilani was quick to emphasize that FS Menon had
been clear in stating that India had not accused Pakistan of
complicity in the bombing, and that even as tough a
hard-liner as NSA Narayanan had admitted there was no
"clinching" evidence of GOP involvement. End comment.
CROCKER