FATA SECURITY UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 22-OCTOBER 12

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 020570

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2016
TAGS: PK PREL MOPS PTER
SUBJECT: FATA SECURITY UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 22-OCTOBER 12

Classified By: CDA Peter W. Bodde, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (SBU) Introduction: This cable reports on security
developments in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal
Areas (FATA) between September 22 and October 13, as culled
from press reports and conversations with post's
interlocutors. The cable also lists cross-border activity
from FATA and North West Frontier Province (NWFP) tracked by
the Office of Defense Representative Pakistan (ODRP).

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North Waziristan Jirga Agreement Update
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2. (SBU) The following incidents reported in open sources
constitute violations of the September 5 jirga agreement
between the Government of Pakistan (GOP) and North Waziristan
Agency (NWA) tribal leaders.

"No parallel authority"

--The press reported that, on October 1, GOP officials closed
a Taliban office that had opened September 27 near the Miran
Shah bus station. Taliban leaders were reported as saying
that they had opened the office to deal with lawlessness in
the town.

--On October 1, "The Nation" reported that the Taliban had
opened offices in Razmak and Mirali with the goal of stopping
armed roberies and other crimes in NWA.

"No targeted killings"

--On September 22, multiple papers reported that assailants
shot dead Wazir Khan, an Afghan, in NWA. Unnamed sources
claimed the man had "spied for the U.S."

--The press also reported that, on September 28, authorities
discovered the body of Malang Khan (or Malang Rahim Jan,) an
Afghan from Khost province. A note attached to the body said
the man had been killed for "spying for the U.S."

--The Nation reported on October 12 that the bodies of two
men accused of spying for the U.S. were found in two
different areas of Miran Shah. The paper said the Taliban
had abducted the two men earlier in the week.

There were no developments of note during this period on
other sections of the jirga agreement, including promises of
no attacks on GOP government officials or buildings.
Similarly, there were no reports of GOP failures to uphold
their side of the agreement, including restitution payments
to victims of collateral damage.

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Jirga Agreement Enforcement
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3. (SBU) On September 28, the Government of Pakistan (GOP)
and tribal leaders announced establishment of a ten-member
committee to monitor NWA jirga agreement implementation. The
committee's stated objectives were serving as a "bridge"
between the Utmanzai tribe and the GOP; ensuring
implementation of the agreement; and acting against
"individiuals" not abiding by the agreement. On October 3,
the Governor of NWFP asked tribal leaders to redouble their
efforts to use the jirga mechanism to enforce the September 5
agreeement.


4. (SBU) During an October 6 meeting with the press,
President Musharaff expressed "satisfaction" over the
improving situation in NWA.


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Cross-border Insurgency
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5. (S) The Office of Defense Representative - Pakistan
(ODRP) reported a significant increase in cross-border
activity from FATA and NWFP to Afghanistan during the week of
October 8 -15. The number of indirect fire attacks remained
the same, but U.S. forces reported the highest frequency of
enemy infiltration and direct fire contacts since the
beginning of Ramadan (September 25-26). There was a spike in
improvised explosive devices (IEDs) placed along the border.
Anti-Coalition Militias (ACMs) placed IEDs beside the road
used by Pak-Mil to attend a Coalition-Pak-Mil border flag
meeting. ACMs also placed IEDs along supply routes. The
majority of these attacks took place in the vicinity of
Forward Operations Base (FOB) Tillman, across the border from
NWA. Cross border activity, broken down by FATA agency/NWFP
district included:

-- South Waziristan Agency (SWA): October 2-3 -- U.S.
forces engaged two enemy foreign fighter sanctuaries directly
on the border. October 9, 12 and 13 -- rockets fired on
Forward Operations Base (FOB) Bermal from within Afghanistan
near SWA.

-- NWA: October 1 and 3 -- Coalition vehicles were struck by
IEDs in the area across from NWA. October 2 -- U.S. forces
engaged seven (7) ACMs who were placing IEDs in area
immediately adjacent to border with NWA. October 7 -- U.S.
patrol received small arms fire and heavy machine gun fire on
Afghan side of border. October 8 -- 10-15 ACMs with AK-47s
and rocket propelled grenades (RPGs) crossed border from NWA
then returned to NWA following engagement with U.S. forces.
October 11 and 12 -- in two separate incidents, 16-18 ACMs
crossed border from NWA, fled back to NWA following
engagement with U.S. forces.

-- Kurram Agency: October 6 -- A U.S. patrol came under small
arms fire in the area across the border from Kurram.

-- Khyber Agency: Oct 10 -- Rockets were fired at Camp
Torkham from the Khyber Agency.

-- Dir/Chitral District, NWFP: October 1 -- U.S. forces
observed and engaged 3-5 ACMs with weapons and packs moving
along border. October 3 -- Operation Buzzard took small arms
fire and engaged ACMs with small arms fire and mortars 1.5
kilometers from Pakistan border. October 5 -- joint patrol
engaged by ACM small arms fire from vicinity of known ACM
safe house on Pak-Afghan border.

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Dissension in Taliban Ranks?
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6. (C) An Embassy contact in South Waziristan Agency (SWA)
reported that Uzbek fighters forced to leave NWA after the
September 5 jirga agreement now feared they could eventually
lose their sanctuary in SWA and were willing to "fight for
their survival" if necessary. The newspapers "Dawn" and
"Daily Times" both reported clashes in SWA between Taliban
who were opposed to foreign fighters remaining in the
Waziristan agencies and those who had alliances with foreign
fighters, mainly Uzbeks. The papers reported an IED attack
on Khanan Wazir, the amir (local Taliban leader) in Shakakai.
(Wazir opposes the influence of foreigners in Waziristan.)
Several days later, the papers reported that, while Wazir was
still in hospital, militants killed two of his supporters and
injured three others. Post contacted other journalists
covering the FATA who confirmed these stories. Meanwhile, in
early October, the son of Uzbek commander Jaffar Assad was
found in Wana, SWA, strangled to death.

ISLAMABAD 00020570 003 OF 003



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Non - FATA militants
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7. (C) Several Pakistani papers carried stories in late
September about young men from the NWFP proper (i.e., from
the province's settled districts, not from FATA) who had been
killed in fighting in Afghanistan. The stories echoed fears
GOP officials have expressed to post: if Taliban and other
militants in FATA are not brought under control, their
extremist ideology could spread into NWFP and then into other
parts of Pakistan. Examples of what would be a worrisome
trend include:

-- Qari Fazle Amin, a young man from a village 25 kilometers
from Peshawar, died as a suicide bomber in Helmand Province,
Afghanistan. (News of his death reached his village
September 17.)

--Of seven bodies returned to SWA from Afghanistan in late
September, four were of militants from Charsadda, NWFP. Of
the other three, two were Tajiks and one a Waziri.

-- An Embassy contact in SWA told post that he had recently
seen new Taliban recruits in his area who were from from
settled areas of NWFP, as well as from parts of Punjab and
Sindh.

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Sectarian Violence
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8. (SBU) A long simmering Sunni/Shi'a feud over access to
the Mian Anwar Shah shrine in Orakzai Agency turned into full
scale violence on October 3. By the time a jirga-brokered
ceasefire went into effect on October 9, the official death
toll was 29, though locals claimed 54 people had died in the
fighting. Some locals indirectly blamed the Taliban, who in
2000 voided a long-standing British agreement that granted
Shi'as access to the shrine. (Additional details on
sectarian conflicts will be reported septel by AmConsul
Peshawar.)

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Comment
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9. (S) While NWA appears to be quieter internally than
prior to the June ceasefire and September jirga agreement,
the uptick in cross-border attacks is troubling. As post has
emphasized to the GOP, the true proof of the agreeement's
efficacy will be if attacks on coalition forces decrease in
the NWA area. Meanwhile, the recent sectarian violence
highlights again both the large number of weapons in the area
and the power of religious extremists in FATA. End Comment.




BODDE