AMBASSADOR'S OCT 5 MEETING WITH NWFP GOV. ORAKZAI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 019796

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2016
TAGS: PTER EAID PINR PK PREL SNAR AF
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S OCT 5 MEETING WITH NWFP GOV. ORAKZAI

REF: ISLAMABAD 19152

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Peter W. Bodde,
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

Summary
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1. (U) Ambassador met with North West Frontier Province
(NWFP) Governor Ali Muhammad Jan Orakzai on October 5.
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) Secretariat
Additional Chief Secretary (ACS) Shehzad Arbab, Secretary to
the Governor Azmat Orakzai, ODRP Chief MG Helmly, Islamabad
DATT, and Peshawar PO (notetaker) were also present.
Meetings with 11th Corps Commander LTG Hamid and Additional
Chief Secretary (ACS) Arbab reported septels.


2. (C) Orakzai expressed determination to enforce the North
Waziristan Agency (NWA) peace agreement but cautioned that
there will be "hiccups" along the way. While no punishments
have been handed down yet, the Governor noted that tribal
elders and local officials have significant enforcement tools
to draw on. Orakzai emphasized the need for "real time"
intelligence to allow Pakistani forces to act quickly on the
border, particularly with the start of patrolling between
posts. The Governor welcomed ODRP plans to upgrade the Army
and Frontier Corps' (FC) capabilities. ACS Arbab reported
that a comprehensive FATA strategy should be completed by the
end of October. Ambassador emphasized the importance of
making a push to reduce poppy cultivation in the FATA and
NWFP. End Summary.

Enforcing the NWA Agreement
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3. (C) Governor Orakzai opened the meeting by emphasizing the
importance of the NWA peace agreement. The success or
failure of the agreement, he said, affects not just Pakistan
but the Coalition and the collective effort to combat
terrorism. There may be "hiccups," the Governor cautioned.
"What we have attempted to solve by military means we are now
trying to solve politically; if we succeed, we will consider
replicating the agreement elsewhere, starting in South
Waziristan.


4. (C) Orakzai explained that he is reviewing mechanisms for
taking action with the 15-member committee charged with
monitoring/implementing the peace agreement. Ambassador
asked what steps will be taken if violators of the agreement
are apprehended and whether any punishments had been handed
down. In particular, Ambassador expressed interest in the
outcome of the case of ten militants who were caught crossing
the border on September 19 and jailed in Miranshah.


5. (C) No punishments have been rendered thus far, the
Governor responded. However, local tribal leaders, he said,
have the authority to take action such as extradition,
expulsion, and destruction of crops. The local tribe,
Orakzai maintained, will be held accountable for violations
of the agreement. If the tribe fails to punish violators, he
continued, the Political Agent is empowered to enforce
collective punishment under the Frontier Crimes Regulation.
The force of collective punishment carried great weight,
Orakzai commented, particularly since many tribes had
interests in the settled areas that could be targeted. If
these avenues failed, the Army and FC were still available as
"ultimate" enforcers, he said.

Patrolling the Border
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6. (C) Pakistani forces have begun patrolling between posts
as agreed at the August Tripartite Commission meeting. The
Governor understood that similar patrols are taking place on
the Afghan side of the border. Orakzai pressed for "real
time" intelligence to give Pakistani forces the best
advantage possible in pursuing cross-border movements.

Improving Counter-Insurgency Capabilities
--------------


7. (C) MG Helmly briefed the Governor on an on-going ODRP
assessment aimed at determining Pakistani counter-insurgency
assistance needs. Upgrading Pakistan's capabilities, he
explained, was being mapped out over a five-year period. MG
Helmly noted that eight attack helicopters with night-time
fighting capability had been fast-tracked for delivery in
November and would be operational in January. ODRP was also
looking at night vision equipment and communications gear for
the FC.

Finalizing a FATA Strategy
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8. (C) Orakzai re-affirmed the need to augment the FC and
asked about a timeline for funding, as well as support for
the government's economic and social development plans. He
expressed appreciation for U.S. assistance, commenting that
USD 150 million would have a significant impact on the FATA.
Ambassador underscored the importance of completing a
comprehensive FATA plan, particularly for preparing requests
to Congress. ACS Arbab said that the FATA Secretariat, with
USAID assistance, expected to have a comprehensive strategy
ready by late October.

Reducing Poppy Cultivation
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9. (C) Pakistan was within reach, Ambassador noted, of being
removed from the list of "major illicit drug producing"
countries. Poppy cultivation in Khyber Agency and Charsadda
were the biggest obstacles to achieving that goal, he said.
The Governor assured that reducing poppy cultivation in the
tribal areas and the NWFP remains a top priority and that the
success of the past five years is an indicator of the
government's commitment. Orakzai acknowledged that Khyber
Agency has a "law and order" problem. However, the situation
was being addressed, he said, and several poppy growers had
recently been arrested.

Private Exhange on NWA Jirga
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10. (C) In a private exchange before the larger meeting, the
Ambassador noted that the information available to us
indicated a sharp increase in militant activity in the border
area in August with no decline in September. We were also
concerned over reports that the militants who had been
detained by tribesmen after the September 18/19 incident had
been released to the Haqqanis. The Governor denied that this
was the case, asserting that tribal leaders were deliberating
the issue and deciding what course of action to take. He
said the government was determined that the conditions of the
agreement be respected. Either the tribes enforced it or the
government would take action against the tribes. The
Ambassador said that the conditions of the agreement as we
understood them - no presence of foreigners, no cross-border
militancy, no "talibanization" - were good, but what counted
was implementation on the ground. We would be watching
closely. The Governor reiterated that he was determined that
the agreement would be respected. If it were not, force
would be exercised.

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11. (C) In response to the Ambassador's query, the Governor
said he considered the initiative for tribal jirgas attended
by Presidents Musharraf and Karzai on both sides of the
Durrand Line a positive one, consistent with Pakistan's
current effort to bring the tribes over to the government's
side. He noted that there were a number of issues to be
worked out, such as participation: on the Pakistan side,
would it involve only the tribes areas or Pashtuns from all
over the NWFP? How broad would participation be in
Afghanistan?

Comment
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12. (C) The spate of incidents in September in NWA (reftel)
was troubling, but may have resulted in part from the gap
between signing the peace deal and providing guidance to the
monitoring committee. Orakzai, in his first week back on the
job since he accompanied President Musharraf to Washington,
seems keenly aware of the spotlight that is now on North
Waziristan - and the accompanying pressure and urgency to
make commitments and punishments stick.
BODDE