BALOCHISTAN: UNQUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 019193

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2016
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINR, PK
SUBJECT: BALOCHISTAN: UNQUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT

REF: A. ISLAMABAD 17875 AND PREVIOUS
B. ISLAMABAD 16962
C. ISLAMABAD 18929

Classified By: CDA Peter Bodde, Reasons 1.4 (b) and(d).

1. SUMMARY: (C) Four weeks after the event, the death of
Nawab Bugti has become a rallying point for the Baloch rights
movement, which is shifting from "fair treatment within
Pakistan" rhetoric to talk of independence. Protests and
attacks against symbols of the central government continue,
as does political organization by Baloch nationalists. The
first grand jirga of the Baloch in over a century condemned
the Bugti's death and the way the central government has
shortchanged the province. Army plans to establish new
cantonments and the continued persecution, even
disappearance, of those the government labels "terrorists"
are not helping to calm the situation. END SUMMARY.

2. (C) Balochistan is entering another cycle of protest
against Punjabi immigrants, the Army and central rule. For
the fourth time since Pakistan's independence, "nationalists"
in the province are engaged in attacks on symbols of their
"colonial status" in Pakistan. The Army's aggressive role in
the August 26 death and subsequent burial of Nawab Bugti, one
of the major "sardars" (tribal lords) of the Baloch (ref A)
have given Baloch nationalists a potent icon.

3. (C) The government appears of two minds, political and
military, in dealing with the rising tide of Baloch
nationalism. Politicians such as Senator Mushahid Hussain
Syed (Secretary General of the PML-Q) and Senate Chairman
Mohammedmian Soomro call for conciliation and programs to
give the Baloch a leg up in the development of the province.
In late September, President Musharraf and Prime Minister
Shaukat Aziz seperately announced development projects for
the districts of Dera Bugti and Kohlu alone totaling over USD
400 million. At the same time, a growing Army presence in
Sui, Dera Bugti and Kohlu is enforcing a hardline "writ of
the state." There is also talk of building new cantonments
to bring more parts of the province under the Army's control.

Grand Jirga Trumps Tribal Jirga
--------------
4. (U) On September 21, the Khan of Kalat, the traditional
hereditary leader of most Baloch tribes, presided over a
grand jirga (conclave) of 85 tribal chiefs and several
hundred elders. The grand jirga was in response to a
government-managed Bugti tribal jirga held two days before
the August 26 death of Nawab Bugti, in which pro-goverment
Bugti tribesmen declared the demise of the sardari (tribal
lord) system in the Bugti tribal area. It declared Nawab
Bugti's heirs the legitimate owners of his property, a direct
challenge to the Army, which, according to contacts in
Quetta, continues to distribute parcels of the Nawab's lands
to his tribal opponents. The jirga called upon the
International Human Rights Commission to investigate Bugti's
death.

5. (C) The Khan's grand jirga registered a province-wide
protest against the way the government had dealt with the
Nawab Bugti. The overarching reason for holding
Balochistan,s first grand jirga in over one hundred years
was to vent Baloch outrage over "colonial occupation" of
their land by Punjabi immigrants (estimated to number
400,000) and the Punjabi-dominated Army. The jirga also
rejected GOP-planned mega-projects, such as the Gwadar port
scheme which many Baloch say benefit only outsiders. In a
gesture designed more for publicity than effect, the jirga
also called for the International Court of Justice to
investigate government violation of the agreement signed by
the state of Kalat, the British crown and the government of
Pakistan concerning the rights of the Baloch people. A
Quetta-based contact in attendance reported that in this
referral to the ICJ was also an attempt by the jirga to
placate many in the audience who wanted to declare

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independence from Pakistan.

6. (C) The grand jirga characterized on-going military
operations (raids, arrests, "disappearances," heavy handed
responses to nationalist sabotage of infrastructure) as
"state terrorism" and called for the release of political
workers held in custody. The degree of Baloch disenchantment
with the central government, and the potential for further
discord, was underlined by a former Chief Minister of
Balochistan, Nawab Zulfiqar Ali Magsi, who noted that once
"we had taken oath as governors, chief ministers and
ministers on the Constitution that we are now opposing."

Reports of Disappearances
--------------
7. (C) The call for the release of "political workers" in
GOP custody gives voice to a growing complaint in Balochistan
and neighboring Sindh. Human Rights Watch and the Asian
Human Rights Commission have noted that both provinces are
experiencing a growing number of "disappearances." Posts has
read reports of the disappearance of political activists,
their family members and others deemed "problematic" by the
police, army or other agencies. In both provinces, the bulk
of those "missing" appear to be ethnic Baloch. Human Rights
Watch and journalists report that families are being left in
the dark regarding the fate of the missing. (Note: HRW and
other contacts advise post that GOP security agencies often
quietly send word to the family of a missing person that
their loved one is in custody -- a courtesy not/not now being
extended to the families of missing Baloch. End note.) The
government denies complicity in most of these disappearances
and has been quick to characterize those who protest for
provincial rights as supporting "terrorism." (Ref C).

8. (C) Comment: The Khan of Kalat's jirga represents, for
the first time in recent history, a large number of tribal
elders who are voicing sentiments usually articulated by
groups such as the Baloch Student Organization and more
actively militant nationalists. Unanswered questions
regarding Nawab Bugti's death at the hands of the Army, hard
line rhetoric about extending "the writ of the state," and
continued disappearance of those who fall afoul of the
authorities do nothing to placate the animosity against the
federal government. Balochistan's isolation and alienation
from the center still must be addressed. End comment.

10. (U) Consulate Karachi contributed to this report.
CROCKER