PAKISTAN ELECTIONS (2): THE BASICS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 019122

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2016
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PINR PK PREL
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN ELECTIONS (2): THE BASICS

REF: ISLAMABAD [1]

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Peter W. Bodde,
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (U) This cable, the second in a series of cables mapping
the political terrain as Pakistan approaches nationwide
elections in 2007, reviews the fundamentals of the Pakistani
electoral system, as well as possible time lines for the
sequencing of provincial, federal and presidential elections.
Subsequent installments in this series will focus on the
state-of-play within the parties and electorate, whether
President/General Musharraf will shed his uniform,
Musharraf's coalition options and recommendations on how the
U.S. can best promote credible and open elections.

Basics 101: Federal Parliament
--------------


2. (U) The Islamic Republic of Pakistan is governed by an
elected bicameral federal parliament (Majlis-e-Shoora). An
electoral college consisting of the federal parliament and
provincial assemblies indirectly elects the president. The
parliament consists of two houses: the National Assembly and
the Senate.


3. (U) The National Assembly has 342 seats: 272 are "open"
seats (normally contested and filled by Muslims),ten are
reserved for non-Muslims and 60 for women. The President has
the power to convene and dissolve the Assembly. In addition
to adopting legislation through majority vote, the Assembly's
key powers are electing the Prime Minister and approving the
federal budget. In conjunction with the Senate, the Assembly
has the power to approve amendments to the Constitution and
to impeach the President; these actions require a 2/3
majority. Although the Constitution provides for the
Assembly to serve a five-year term, no Pakistani parliament
has ever served for the full mandate. The Assembly can be
dissolved by the President on the advise of the Prime
Minister or if the Prime Minister has lost a confidence vote
by the Assembly and no other Assembly member appears able to
form a government.


4. (U) The Senate has 100 members, 88 of whom are indirectly
elected by the provincial assemblies. There are also four
seats for Islamabad, which are elected by the National
Assembly, and eight seats for the Federally Administered
Tribal Areas (FATA),who are elected by the 12 FATA members
of the National Assembly. Constitution envisions the Senate
as a permanent body, with one-half of the members standing
for election every three years. (Note: As an expanded
Senate only came into being in 2003, the house held a
one-time lottery in March 2007 to determine which senators
would "retire" and have to run for re-election. End note.)
Although Senate approval is necessary for a bill to become
law, the Senate wields less power than the Assembly. For
example, it has only an advisory role on the federal budget.

Basics 102: The Presidency
--------------


5. (U) Pakistan's constitution provide for indirect election
of the President via an electoral college consisting of the
members of the Senate, National Assembly and the four
Provincial Assemblies. Powers of the Presidency include
dissolution of the National Assembly and convening the
National Assembly and the Senate. The President appoints top
military, judicial and administrative offices, as well as the
governorships of the four provinces. The President also has
powers to pardon. If the office of the President becomes
vacant by reason of death, resignation or removal from
office, the Chairman of the Senate and the Speaker of the
National Assembly are the first and second in the line of
succession.

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6. (SBU) After General Musharraf assumed power in October
1999, he enacted a series of laws amending the powers of the
presidency and parliament, rescinding some constitutional
provisions adopted during the regimes of General Zia, Nawaz
Sharif and Benazir Bhutto. On April 30, 2002, a national
referendum was held on whether Pakistani citizens wished to
"elect President General Pervez Musharraf as president of
Pakistan for five years?" The Chief Election Commissioner
declared that more than 90 percent of voters favored
Musharraf. On August 21, 2002, Musharraf signed an executive
order known as the Legal Framework Order (LFO). The LFO
amended the (pre-Zia) 1973 Constitution, restoring the
President's power to dissolve the National Assembly,
increasing the number of Assembly and Senate seats and
establishing a National Security Council. In December 2003,
the parliament incorporated most provisions of the LFO into
the Constitution via the 17th Amendment. This amendment
endorsed General Musharraf for a five year term as President
and provided immunity for his official acts following his
assumption of power in October 1999. (Note: In order to
secure the support for the 17th Amendment from the Muttahida
Majlis-e Ammal, the coalition of Islamic parties, Musharraf
pledged to retire as Chief of Army Staff by the end of 2004.
Key MMA leaders, particularly Jamaat-I Islami Amir Qazi
Hussain Ahmed, consider the President's failure to honor this
commitment an unforgivable political betrayal. End note.)


7. (U) The president's constitutional term of office is five
years. The starting date of President Musharraf's current
term is a matter of debate: legal analysts disagree as to
whether his current five-year term started in May 2002 (the
date Musharraf was sworn-in after the 2002 referendum) or
December 2003 (the date Musharraf was affirmed by the
electoral college).


8. (C) The Constitution limits the President to two terms of
office. President Musharraf's legal advisors can plausibly
argue that he is currently serving his first term as a
constitutional president. (Note: His official biography
describes his civilian title/position before becoming
President as "Chief Executive." End note.) Should Musharraf
be re-elected for a second five-year term, he could remain in
office until 2012-2013. Although he has not made any
definitive public announcement, Musharraf is widely assumed
to want to serve another five-year term as President.
Certainly the leadership of the governing Pakistan Muslim
League (PML) has encouraged him to take this course and
Musharraf has done nothing to dissuade them.

Basics 103: The Provinces
--------------


9. (U) Pakistan's four provinces are governed by
popularly-elected provincial assemblies and governors
appointed by the President. Aside from their role in the
electoral college that elects the federal President, the
provincial assemblies are primarily focused on local matters.
They do not have true "power of the purse"; their role is
limited to approving programatic and spending schemes
prepared by the provincial government before they are
presented to the center for approval.


10. (SBU) The provincial assemblies' role in the electoral
college has garnered increased attention recently, as
opposition parties have signaled that they would resign from
the National and Provincial Assemblies if President Musharraf
were to seek early re-election, thus denying him the quorum
needed convene the electoral college. Currently, The
opposition has the power to force the dissolution of only the
NWFP Assembly, which would not be enough to block Musharraf's
re-election, constitutionally or politically. (Note:
Federal Information Minister Durrani recently stated that
even the dissolution of the both the Balochistan and NWFP

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Assemblies would be no impediment to convening the electoral
college. End note.) A show down over this issue, however,
would alienate the opposition and poison the environment for
a legitimate election.

Basics 104: Electoral Calendar
--------------


11. (U) The current National Assembly was inaugurated on
November 16, 2002; its mandate will expire on November 15,

2007. The Constitution stipulates that National Assembly
elections should take place within a 90-day window: no
earlier than 30 days before or 60 days after the Assembly's
mandate expires. This would place the date for National
Assembly elections between December 16, 2007 and January 15,

2008.


12. (U) As the Constitution requires that the Assembly be
dissolved for 90 days before the election, post anticipates
that the President would dissolve the Assembly sometime
between September 17 and October 17, 2007. Following the
Assembly's dissolution, the president appoints a caretaker
prime minister who, in turn, appoints a caretaker cabinet.
Members of this interim cabinet are disqualified from
contesting the election. These provisions governing the
National Assembly's timing, dissolution and caretaker
leadership also apply to concurrent assembly elections in the
provinces.


13. (C/NF) Musharraf has long maintained that he wants the
current National Assembly to complete its full five-year
term. Indeed, he views this as one of his credentials as a
democrat, remarking frequently that the current Assembly will
be the first in Pakistan's history to complete its full
constitutional tenure. There is spirited debate in
Pakistani political circles on whether Musharraf should seek
re-election from the sitting National Assembly or wait until
a new Parliament is seated after National Assembly elections.
Opposition politicians, who view the current Assembly as
stacked in Musharraf's favor, argue that re-election by the
sitting members would be illegitimate. The current Assembly
is a known commodity and therefore perhaps the safer choice
for a re-election vote, but some opposition parties have
vowed to deny Musharraf a quorum by resigning their seat if
he tries that route. Delaying until a new Assembly is seated
will raise the temperature of those elections, increasing the
stakes and incentive for rigging. Musharraf's decision will
ultimately be a matter of political judgment; to date, post's
interaction with his political advisors suggest that they
remain divided on the best course of action. The Supreme
Court may be asked to rule on whether the election of the
president will fall to the current or the future Assembly,
but its credibility on such politically-charged matters is
minimal.
BODDE