NORTH WAZIRISTAN PEACE ACCORD ANNOUNCED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 017766

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2016
TAGS: MARR MOPS PGOV PINR PK PTER
SUBJECT: NORTH WAZIRISTAN PEACE ACCORD ANNOUNCED

REF: A. ISLAMABAD 14209

B. ISLAMABAD 13677

C. ISLAMABAD 15543

Classified By: CDA Peter W. Bodde, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: On September 5, the Government of
Pakistan (GOP) and local tribal leaders announced that the
45-member Grand Jirga for North Waziristan Agency (NWA) had
a peace agreement with the GOP. (Note: Consulate Peshawar
has obtained a copy of the agreement and has translated the
Urdu text, which post will forward to SCA/PB. End note.)
The compromise is characterized by concrete measures to
ensure the compliance of tribal militants with GOP red-lines
and government acknowledgment of tribal customs and
privileges. NWA tribes pledged to live peacefully, to cease
cross-border military infiltration into Afghanistan and to
respect the GOP's political administration. In return, the
government will cease on-going military operations; it has
already released 150-some prisoners and begun to vacate
check-posts previously manned by Pakistani military.


2. (SBU) The agreement reached between the government and
the jirga, which had begun deliberations on July 20 and had
twice extended a cease-fire with tribal militants (Ref A, B),
applies only to NWA. The document's heading declares that it
is a "peace agreement between the Political Agent of NWA
(serving as representative of the Governor of North West
Frontier Province and the GOP),the tribal elders of NWA,
local "Mujahidin," students and religious scholars of the
Utmanzai tribe." Key provisions of the agreement include the
following provisions:

- The Utmanzai tribes agrees:

-- Not to attack law enforcement agencies and/or government
property, or to target GOP officials, security officials or
pro-government tribal elders or journalists;
-- To refrain from forming a parallel administration; tribal
members will respect the (GOP) political administration and
will resolve disputes according to the Frontier Crime
Regulations (FCR) and local traditions, in consultation with
tribal elders and students of Utmanzai;
-- Not to allow cross-border movement for the purposes of
military operations in Afghanistan. (Note: Cross-border
movement will be permitted for trade and family visits. End
note.);
-- No infiltration into areas adjacent to NWA (e.g., the
Frontier Regions or settled areas of NWFP); and
-- Foreigners in NWA will leave the area; those who are
unable to leave must live peacefully and obey the laws of the
land, including the provisions of this agreement.

- The GOP agrees to:

-- Release all arrested militants, who will not be subject to
arrest for past incidents;
-- Restore all tribal perks and privileges;
-- Dismantle all new check posts; old check posts will be
staffed by tribal Khassadar forces. (Note: The Khassadars
are a loosely-organized security force, answerable to the
Political Agent, often used to guard government facilities.
End note.)
-- Return all seized weaponry and vehicles;
-- Cease military operations in the region and resolve
disputes according to local custom;
-- Pay compensation for losses to life and property damaged
in government security operations;
-- Not restrict tribesmen from keeping weapons consistent
with tribal customs.


3. (U) The agreement provides for the formation of a
10-member committee comprising tribal elders who will be
tasked to:

-- Maintain open lines of communication between the GOP and

ISLAMABAD 00017766 002 OF 003


tribes;
-- Insure implementation of the agreement;
-- Serve as a point-of-contact in emergencies, to prevent
crises from developing;
-- Act against those who do not abide by the agreement.


4. (C) According to press reports, the GOP implementation
of its commitment in the agreement is already well underway.
The government has released most militant detainees. Local
press reports that the army has already evacuated
check-points on the Bannu-Miranshah, Miranshah-Ghulam Khan,
Miranshah-Razmak, and Miransha-Dattakhel roads, as well as
posts in southwest NWA in the Shawal Valley near the
Afghanistan border and along the border between NWA and South
Waziristan. The GOP has also released seized assets and is
preparing to pay compensation to tribal members who suffered
personal or property damage during security operations --
even if the property involved was being used by the militants
against GOP forces.


5. (C) Some provisions in the agreement clearly bear the
mark of compromise. For example, going into the
negotiations, the government said it would demand the
expulsion of all foreigners in NWA (Ref C). The GOP later
walked this demand back to requiring all foreigners to
register. In the end, the issue of foreigners in NWA is now
essentially left to the NWA tribes, who are now guarantors
that the foreigners do not participate in unlawful or
subversive activity. Tribal members are permitted to retain
their weapons according to their customs, but cultural norms
treat RPGs as "small arms." An interesting side note is that
the agreement is between the government and "Utmanzi tribe,"
rather than the tribes of NWA. Although the vast majority of
Wazir tribesmen in NWA belong to the Utmanzai tribe,
non-Wazir tribes also live in NWA. For example, Maulana
Sadiq Noor and Maulana Abdul Khaliq, two NWA militant
religious leaders, are not Wazirs; they belong to the Daur
tribe.


6. (C) Comment: While welcoming the jirga agreement as a
first step toward ending the violence that has plagued NWA
over the past year, many observers are skeptical that the NWA
jirga agreement will effectively reduce cross-border attacks
on Coalition and Afghan forces or halt the spread of Islamism
in the long term. Post's NWA contacts noted that
anti-coalition militants have changed their tactics in the
past; the agreement to stop cross-border infiltration into
Afghanistan from NWA may simply shift the locus of militant
operations to other FATA regions. Other commentators
observed that the militants walked away from the jirga
pocketing all of their demands. Others suggested that the
jirga agreement would be viewed as victory by the militants'
supporters, enhancing their ability to spread their Islamic
ideology. In contrast, although the GOP achieved key aims:
an end to attacks on government officials and sympathizers,
cessation of cross-border and inter-FATA activity),it was
forced to compromise on others.


7. (C) Comment (cont): The fact that the GOP elected to
negotiate with the tribal militants can alternatively be
interpreted as either a telling sign of how weak the
government's position in NWA had become or a mark of Governor
Orakzai and the federal government's determination to restore
sufficient stability in the agency to allow the GOP to
proceed with its long-term strategy of political reform,
economic investment and social development for NWA and the
rest of the FATA. As noted in earlier reporting (Ref C),
this jirga was not convened as the tool to fix the GOP's FATA
problem -- it was convened to resolve discrete, immediate
issues to allow the government and NWA sufficient space to
restore law-and- order and create an environment conducive to
further negotiation. Similarly, the well-documented process
leading to this agreement places the GOP in a good position
if it is forced to resume military operations in the future.
Judged against this standard, the GOP might well congratulate
itself on a successful outscome. In coming days, post will

ISLAMABAD 00017766 003 OF 003


poll the GOP's FATA team to gauge its assessment of the jirga
agreement. End comment.





BODDE