Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ISLAMABAD16800
2006-08-25 02:13:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Islamabad
Cable title:
NO CONFIDENCE VOTE ON THE PM: SOUND, FURY, SLIGHT
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C O N F I D E N T I A L ISLAMABAD 016800
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2016
TAGS: PK PREL PGOV
SUBJECT: NO CONFIDENCE VOTE ON THE PM: SOUND, FURY, SLIGHT
SIGNIFICANCE
Classified By: Charge d'Affairs Peter W.Bodde,
Reason: 1.4 (B and,D)
C O N F I D E N T I A L ISLAMABAD 016800
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2016
TAGS: PK PREL PGOV
SUBJECT: NO CONFIDENCE VOTE ON THE PM: SOUND, FURY, SLIGHT
SIGNIFICANCE
Classified By: Charge d'Affairs Peter W.Bodde,
Reason: 1.4 (B and,D)
1. (C) SUMMARY: Opposition parties joined forces on August
23, tabling a long-anticipated, no confidence vote on Prime
Minister Shaukat Aziz. The opposition knows that it does not
have the votes needed to succeed, but seems determined to
relish this opportunity to ramp up its criticism of the
Musharraf government in the run up to the 2007 general
elections. Given the ephemeral nature of this "coalition,"
cooperation on subsequent issues remains highly unlikely.
END SUMMARY.
2. (U) After a summer of press play, five parlimentary
components signed on to an attempt to bring a vote of no
confidence against Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz: the Islamist
Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA),the populist Pakistan People's
Party (PPP),the conservative Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz
(PML-N),and a collection of Balouch and Pashtoon
nationalists and members of the Assembly from the Frontier
and Tribal Areas (FATA) affiliated with or sympatheic to the
MMA. Between them, they control perhaps 141 votes. In
contrast, PM Aziz's coalition numbers 201 votes.
3. (C) The no confidence motion is a 17-page petition,
backed up by a 500-page "charge sheet" of press clippings and
commentaries involving 30 alleged major financial
irregularities and scandals during the Aziz administration.
Article 95 of the constitution requires the Assembly vote on
the motion within seven days, by August 29. High theater and
histrionics are predicted for the interim.
4. (C) COMMENT: Hoping to benefit from divisions within the
ruling coalition, the opposition argued for a secret vote on
the no confidence measure, but the government opted for a
more disciplined public balloting, despite opposition
warnings of a protest if a secret ballot is not used. The
GOP decision to not allow a secret ballot is the conservative
route, given the virtual certainty that the no cofidence
motion will fail. Foreshadowing the transitory nature of the
opposition's cooperation, the MMA is already complaining that
the government introduced its amendments to the Hudood
Ordinance on August 21 in a deliberate effort to divide the
opposition before the no confidence vote could be tabled.
The opposition was never united -- except around the issue of
the no confidence vote. In fact, the PPP, the driving force
behind the no confidence motion, worked with the government
in order to introduce the Hudood Ordinance amendments in the
first place.
BODDE
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2016
TAGS: PK PREL PGOV
SUBJECT: NO CONFIDENCE VOTE ON THE PM: SOUND, FURY, SLIGHT
SIGNIFICANCE
Classified By: Charge d'Affairs Peter W.Bodde,
Reason: 1.4 (B and,D)
1. (C) SUMMARY: Opposition parties joined forces on August
23, tabling a long-anticipated, no confidence vote on Prime
Minister Shaukat Aziz. The opposition knows that it does not
have the votes needed to succeed, but seems determined to
relish this opportunity to ramp up its criticism of the
Musharraf government in the run up to the 2007 general
elections. Given the ephemeral nature of this "coalition,"
cooperation on subsequent issues remains highly unlikely.
END SUMMARY.
2. (U) After a summer of press play, five parlimentary
components signed on to an attempt to bring a vote of no
confidence against Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz: the Islamist
Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA),the populist Pakistan People's
Party (PPP),the conservative Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz
(PML-N),and a collection of Balouch and Pashtoon
nationalists and members of the Assembly from the Frontier
and Tribal Areas (FATA) affiliated with or sympatheic to the
MMA. Between them, they control perhaps 141 votes. In
contrast, PM Aziz's coalition numbers 201 votes.
3. (C) The no confidence motion is a 17-page petition,
backed up by a 500-page "charge sheet" of press clippings and
commentaries involving 30 alleged major financial
irregularities and scandals during the Aziz administration.
Article 95 of the constitution requires the Assembly vote on
the motion within seven days, by August 29. High theater and
histrionics are predicted for the interim.
4. (C) COMMENT: Hoping to benefit from divisions within the
ruling coalition, the opposition argued for a secret vote on
the no confidence measure, but the government opted for a
more disciplined public balloting, despite opposition
warnings of a protest if a secret ballot is not used. The
GOP decision to not allow a secret ballot is the conservative
route, given the virtual certainty that the no cofidence
motion will fail. Foreshadowing the transitory nature of the
opposition's cooperation, the MMA is already complaining that
the government introduced its amendments to the Hudood
Ordinance on August 21 in a deliberate effort to divide the
opposition before the no confidence vote could be tabled.
The opposition was never united -- except around the issue of
the no confidence vote. In fact, the PPP, the driving force
behind the no confidence motion, worked with the government
in order to introduce the Hudood Ordinance amendments in the
first place.
BODDE