CONSENSUS ON ELECTION AND RECONCILIATION BEGINS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 012265

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2015
TAGS: PK PREL PGOV
SUBJECT: CONSENSUS ON ELECTION AND RECONCILIATION BEGINS
OVER DINNER

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Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker


1. (C) Summary. The visit of elections expert Andrew Raucci
provided a rare opportunity for a frank dinner discussion
between senior representatives from most of Pakistan's key
political parties: PML, PPP, PML-N/ARD, MQM and ANP. Raucci's
comment about the critical need for credibility in the
elections process sparked a vigorous debate and a significant
level of consensus from a group normally accustomed to taking
potshots at one another. The group moved closer to agreement
on the need for free and fair elections, a level playing
ground for all parties, a credible Election Commissioner and
election process, a joint code of conduct, and tamping down
political victimization. Yet, the fact that the leaders of
three of five of the parties represented at the table are
currently in exile (voluntarily or involuntarily) and that
all five leaders have spent at least six months in jail for
political reasons demonstrates the harsh zero-sum nature of
Pakistani politics. It also hints at just how difficult it
will be for the parties to implement the consensus reached at
the table. End Summary.

Budgets and Balochistan Spawn the Party Line
--------------

2. (SBU) A June 19 dinner hosted by Ambassador Crocker in
honor of the visit of Illinois-based elections expert Andrew
Raucci (part of a Public Affairs speaker series timed to
coincide with the launch of US assistance for Pakistani
elections) brought together senior party leaders Chaudhary
Shujaat Hussain of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML),Iqbal
Jhagra from the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy
(ARD) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N),Raja Pervaiz
Ashraf from the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP),Asfandyar Wali
Khan from the Awami National Party (ANP),and Farooq Sattar
from the MQM. Party representatives--ordinarily accustomed
to grandstanding during public meetings--used this rare
private opportunity to discuss a range of policy issues.


3. (SBU) The evening's discussions began with banter on
the ongoing budget and quickly gave way to a heated
discussion of provincial autonomy and Balochistan. In
particular, the ANP and MQM representatives expressed
consternation that although two Senate Subcommittees met on
Balochistan last year, none of the recommendations had been
implemented. Chaudhary Shujaat--who has taken personal
responsibility to negotiate with Baloch nationalists for the
Government--indicated that the recommendations of the first
Subcommittee addressing political reform to resolve the
current Baloch crisis were being implemented. (Note: Post has
yet to see any concrete steps towards implementation, despite
GOP assurances. End note). Shujaat noted that SubCommittee
on Constitutional Affairs, which was responsible for making
legal (and constitutional) changes to allow for greater
provincial autonomy, had stalled. Shujaat seemed open to
Asfandayar Wali's suggestions that Shujaat personally
intervene in re-starting the committee.

But, Talk of Elections Brings Consensus...
--------------

4. (SBU) Elections speaker Raucci began a lively dialogue
on the upcoming election process (and problems with past
elections) by noting that what was most needed in Pakistan's
electoral process is credibility. PML-N's Iqbal Jhagra
quickly chimed in that it was hard to have credibility in the
process without a level playing field for all parties. Raja
Pervaiz Ashraf noted that PPP's biggest concern was that
there be a neutral caretaker government chosen by national
consensus; that, and a level playing field would ensure
credibility. Asfandyar Wali at first balked at the idea that
the Election Commission would be neutral--or credible--but
conceded that if the ruling party took steps to prove their
will to have fair elections, it was possible.

5.(C) One of the more heated discussions of the evening was

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over the selection process for the new Election Commissioner.
When the opposition said they wished the process had been
more transparent, Shujaat sparked off a debate by claiming
that he had solicited the advice of the "leader of the
opposition." (Note: A reference to MMA leader Fazl-ur Rehman,
whose desegnation as "leader of the opposition" was in itself
a subject of contentious debate. End note.) Asfandyar,
Sattar, Ashraf, and Jhagra balked at the fact that they had
not been looped in; Shujaat retorted that he had tried, but
he could only do so much if the leader of the opposition
chose not to share the information. (Note: Embassy PolOffs
have been told by PPP, JI and JUI-F that their participation
had been solicited and that they had suggested names, but
that PPP would publicly deny this. End note). Overall,
Chaudhary Shujaat--the target of much of the opposition's ire
at the government's purported misdeeds--listened carefully to
all of the complaints and suggestions and managed to convince
listeners that he too, was genuinely concerned and interested
in having a credible, fair elections process.


6. (SBU) One of the most poignant moments in the two-hour
discussion was that political victimization was almost a
universal "norm" in Pakistan. To make this point to Dr.
Raucci, the Ambassador asked for a "show of hands" by anyone
at the table who had been jailed for political reasons: all
of the participants indicated that they had spent at least 6
months in jail, with some sacrificing up to 5-7 years of
their lives in the name of political struggle. This point
--and the very open dialogue of the evening--eventually gave
way to a near-consensus on several baseline criteria for
credible elections in Pakistan: a free and fair process, a
level playing ground for all parties, an Election Commission
deemed credible, a joint code of conduct, and the need to
avoid political victimization of their opposition in the
future.

Comment
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7. (C) The evening's debates highlighted once again for the
Mission the value of USG efforts to help the Election
Commission and GOP-at-large build public confidence in the
electoral process. It also demonstrated that the political
parties appear ready for a new era in politics; the 2007-2008
election process will all but cement how that era turns out.
CROCKER