SNAPSHOT OF UPCOMING ELECTIONS IN AJK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 010746

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: IN PK PREL
SUBJECT: SNAPSHOT OF UPCOMING ELECTIONS IN AJK


1. Summary: In July, voters in Pakistan-administered Azad
Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) will elect a new President, Prime
Minister (PM),and legislative assembly (AJKLA). Since 1975,
elections in AJK have been regular and relatively fair. The
position of AJK President and Prime Minister has
traditionally been held by two parties, the Muslim Conference
(MC) and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP-AJK). This cable
provides a snapshot of the AJK electoral process, provides a
brief history of elections, and gives a sketch of major
political parties in AJK. Paras 12 and 13 contain Post's
comment on the upcoming elections. End summary.

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KASHMIRI ELECTIONS AND ELECTORAL TIMELINE
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2. July elections will be held for a new AJK President,
Prime Minister, and legislative assembly. The legislative
assembly is a body comprised of forty-nine seats. Forty-one
legislators are directly elected, and out of these forty-one,
there is a quota of twelve seats for Kashmiri refugees living
in Pakistan. After the legislative assembly is elected,
eight more seats will be indirectly elected. The eight seats
are broken down into five seats for women, one for an Islamic
scholar, one for a technocrat, and one to represent Kashmiris
residing overseas. Elections will be held on July 11. The
deadline to file candidate nomination papers will expire on
June 2.


3. The AJK legislative assembly addresses local economic,
infrastructure, and social issues. Decisions on the broader
issue of Kashmir's status are formulated by the
Islamabad-based Kashmir Council. The Pakistani Prime
Minister sits as the chairman of the Council; the AJK
President is the vice-chairman. The Council consists of nine
members, five of whom are appointed by the Pakistani Prime
Minister, and four who are selected by the AJK legislative
assembly. The new Kashmir Council will be assembled soon
after the July elections, once the AJK leadership and
legislative assembly is in place.

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HISTORY OF ELECTIONS IN AJK
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4. Elections in AJK were first held in 1975, after Pakistani
PM Zulfikar Ali Bhutto established a branch of the Pakistan
People's Party (PPP) AJK. His intent was to weaken the
influence of Sardar Abdul Qayyum Khan, who Bhutto eventually
put under house arrest. With Sardar Qayyum out of the
picture, Abdul Hameed Khan was elected as the first PM of AJK
in 1975. When General Zia ul-Haq imposed martial law in
Pakistan in 1977, the AJK Legislative Assembly was dissolved
and General Hayat Khan was appointed as the Chief Executive.
Hayat served until elections were held in 1985, when Sardar
Abdul Qayyum Khan was elected the President and Sardar
Sikandar Hayat was chosen as the Prime Minister.


5. Two major political parties, Muslim Conference (MC) and
the Pakistan People's Party-AJK (PPP-AJK) have taken turns
holding the majority of seats in the legislative assembly as
well as the positions of prime minister and president. MC
led the government from 1985-90, and the PPP-AJK took over in

1990. MC again took the lead in the 1991 elections and ruled
until 1996. PPP-AJK returned to power in 1996 until the MC
regained the majority in 2001.

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MAJOR POLITICAL PARTIES
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6. MUSLIM CONFERENCE (MC): Founded in 1932, MC is the oldest
political party in AJK. Sardar Abdul Qayyum -- also known as
Mujahid-e-Awal "the first holy warrior," as he is believed to
have fired the first bullet in the 1947 war of liberation to

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establish AJK -- has headed the party since 1967. (Now his
son, Sardar Attique Khan, heads the party.) In 1998,
Qayyum's differences with another powerful leader of MC,
Sardar Sikandar Hayat, led to a temporary split in the MC.
Before the 2001 elections, both MC leaders merged their
factions to counter the PPP-AJK and won the elections.
Sikandar was to serve as the PM for two and a half years
before being succeeded by Sardar Attique Khan, who was PM for
the remaining two and a half years. When his term expired,
Sikander refused to step down, putting a strain on party
unity. MC's manifesto supports Kashmir's annexation to
Pakistan. They support the right to struggle against Indian
occupation of Kashmir, though MC has never been associated
with any militant group, nor is there evidence that it has
offered material support to the militancy. MC supports the
peace process with India, urging the Indian government to
reduce the number of troops in Indian-administered Kashmir on
its side of the LOC. After the October 2005 earthquake, MC
was criticized for its lack of response in the quake-hit
areas. Public support for MC has declined, but its
historical influence will help win seats in the entire AKJ
region this summer. Recently, several MC legislative
assembly members were denied party tickets to participate in
the July elections and as a result, they have decided to form
a separate faction.


7. PAKISTAN PEOPLE'S PARTY AJK (PPP-AJK): Barrister Sultan
of the PPP-AJK was elected as PM in 1996. In 2001, he
returned to his position of PPP-AJK party president,
posturing himself as the leader of the opposition against the
MC. Sultan was replaced by Sahibzada Ishaq Zafar in 2004.
Tension between Ishaq and Barrister increased during the
February 2006 party elections when Barrister did not support
the party-nominated candidate. (Note: This violation of
party policy led to Barrister's expulsion from the party. In
April 2006, Barrister founded his own political party: Jammu
Kashmir People's Muslim League. End note.) PPP-AJK has
never supported militant groups in Indian-administered
Kashmir, though they support the right of Kashmiris to resist
Indian occupation. At the same time, they endorse the peace
process with India. After the earthquake, PPP-AJK's poor
relief activities were criticized, especially in the
districts of Rawalakot and Muzaffarabad.


8. AJK People's Muslim League (AJK-PML): Opposition leader
Barrister Sultan formed this party in April 2006 after his
disputes with AJK-PPP leader Sahibzada Ishaq Zafar. His
party has a strong presence in the three districts of Mirpur,
Bhimber, and Kotli. He also has a following in the adjoining
areas of Jhelum, Gujrat, and Sialkot. Many local leaders of
MC and AJK-PPP, who were not endorsed by their parties for
the upcoming elections, have recently joined AJK-PML.
AJK-PML does not support militant groups and encourages the
ongoing Indo-Pak peace process.


9. JAMMU KASHMIR PEOPLE'S PARTY (JKPP): Headed by Sardar
Khalid Ibrahim Khan, the JKPP came into being as a splinter
group of the PPP-AJK in 1990. It enjoys strong support in
the Rawalakot and Kotli districts. Khalid recently met with
PPP leader Benazir Bhutto, and there are reports that the
JKPP has since formed an alliance with the PPP-AJK.


10. AJK MUTIHIDDA MAJLAS-E-AMAL (MMA): Established as an
offshoot of the national MMA party, this political alliance
was formed in March 2006. Comprised of six religious and
political parties, the MMA is lead by Sardar Ejaz Afzal Khan,
who is also President of AJK Jamaat-i-Islami (AJKJI). AJKJI
has won public support from earthquake victims for their
quick and sustained relief efforts. Their relief performance
is likely to win them significant political support in the
three worst hit districts -- Muzaffarabad, Rawalakot and
Bagh. Despite the good public relations, however, AJKMMA is
not going to win the majority of seats. The JI rallies and
provides support to the militant cause in Indian-administered
Kashmir, and has a cordial relationship with Hizbul

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Mujahideen (HM),a Kashmiri militant group. Their public
support for the Indo-Pak peace process is driven by public
pressure, but JI does not hide its stance that militant
struggle is the sole solution to push the Indians out of
"occupied Kashmir."


11. JAMMU KASHMIR LIBERATION FRONT (JKLF): Founded by
Amanullah Khan in 1977, it was JKLF that started the Kashmiri
militancy in 1988. The JKLF has three factions, each lead by
Yasin Malik, Amanullah Khan, and Farooq Siddiqi. Once a
potent political force, JKLF does not play much of an active
role in AJK politics today, as its demand for Kashmiri
independence clashes with the GOP's preference for eventual
Pakistani control over all of Kashmir. JKLF supports the
peace process between India and Pakistan, but rejects the
idea of accession of Kashmir to either India or Pakistan.
JKLF has not participated in previous legislative assembly
elections, as every candidate is required sign an oath
endorsing the idea of Kashmir,s accession to Pakistan. It is
currently campaigning to get the oath requirement revoked so
they can run in the July elections.


12. (SBU) Comment: The AJK government provides
Pakistan-administered Kashmir a veneer of democracy and
governance infrastructure; major decisions are made in
Islamabad, including negotiations on Kashmir with India and
earthquake reconstruction. The upcoming elections in AJK
will assemble a legislative body and leadership who, because
of the required oath to support Kashmir's accession to
Pakistan, are likely to serve as a mouthpiece for Islamabad.


13. (SBU) Comment (cont): At the moment, there is a
collaborative push from AJK-PPP, MC, MMA, and JKLF to have
the oath requirement revoked. Without the oath, JKLF would
be permitted to run on its platform of endorsing an
independent, united Kashmir. The pressure to repeal the oath
also hints at a collective push for more decisionmaking
authority for the AJK government. Should Musharraf allow the
oath to be scrapped, it would send a strong signal that he is
willing to cede some authority to the AJK government.
Regardless of his decision, Kashmir watchers believe the JKLF
will not win many seats this summer. It is also thought that
the July elections will not bring PPP-AJK back into power,
but that the MC will continue to head the AJK government.
End comment.
BODDE